运用蒙特卡洛模拟城市供水网络可靠性实例分析
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摘要
为研究城市供水网络可靠性,以日本宫城县仙南及仙盐地区供水网络为研究对象,运用GIS软件将供水网络和假想地震结合,用蒙特卡洛模拟计算供水网络的到达率.结果表明,该树形结构供水网络从水源到各需水点到达率较低,且需水点距离水源越远,到达率越低.根据以上结果及树形网络结构上游管道损坏可导致下游需水点断水的特点,提出在关键节点增加6条管道的方案改善供水网络结构,使到达率提高.
In order to evaluate the reliability of urban water supply network in Sennan and Senen area which located in Miyagi prefecture of Japan,the GIS software was applied to overlay the network with scenario earthquake and Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to calculate the reachability.The result indicates tree-shape network performed low reachability from water source to water demand node,the reachability decreased sharply with increase of the length between demand node and water source.Based on the result and feature of tree-shape network,6 links between key facilities were added to improve the reliability.
In order to evaluate the reliability of urban water supply network in Sennan and Senen area which located in Miyagi prefecture of Japan,the GIS software was applied to overlay the network with scenario earthquake and Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to calculate the reachability.The result indicates tree-shape network performed low reachability from water source to water demand node,the reachability decreased sharply with increase of the length between demand node and water source.Based on the result and feature of tree-shape network,6 links between key facilities were added to improve the reliability.
引文
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[7]东京都水道局.大规模灾害对策指针(日文)[EB].东京,2012.
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[2]Chen Lingli,Li Jie,Te Zhiming.Seismic Reliability Analysisand Optimization of Water Supply Network[C]//.CanadianAssociation for Earthquake Engineering.Proceedings of 13thWorld Conference on Earthquake Engineering.Canada:Com-mittee of 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,2004.
[3]Liu Geeyu,Yen Chinhsun,Huan Hsiangyuan,et al.Seismic A-nalysis of Water Supply System by Earthquake Scenario Simu-lation[C]//.Taiwan Construction Research Institute.Proceed-ings of SSMS2012.Taiwan:Committee of SSMS2012,2012.
[4]Zolfaghari M R,Akbari Niari M.Probabilistic Seismic DamageAssessment for Water Supply Networks Following Earthquake[C]//.ASCE.Proceedings of TCLEE2009.USA:ASCE,2009.
[5]金畅.蒙特卡洛方法中随机数发生器和随机抽样方法的研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2006.
[6]Howard H M.Hwang,Huijie Lin,Masanobu Shinozuka.Seis-mic Performance Assessment of Water Delivery Systems[J].ASCE,1998,4:118-125.
[7]东京都水道局.大规模灾害对策指针(日文)[EB].东京,2012.
[8]Kameda H,Goto H,Kasuga T.System Reliability and Service-ability of Water Supply Pipelines Under Seismic Environment[C]//.NICEE.Proceedings of WCEE.India:NICEE,2009.
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