利用地震烈度数据重构历史地震震级和震中位置的方法
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摘要
采用现代仪器地震记录和烈度资料,我们建立了用于定量估算历史地震震级和震中位置的烈度衰减模型和分析方法,并对我国西南川滇地区的历史和近代地震的震中和震级进行了重新分析.利用20世纪以来该地区十四个有仪器记录的地震(5.9≤M_s≤8.0)及相应的烈度数据,对其烈度-震级-震中距衰减关系进行标定,并建立了用于震中和震级估算的烈度衰减模型.结果表明,当震级一定时,川滇地区烈度随震中距增大而衰减的速率明显小于美国加州地区(～60%).在衰减模型基础之上,发展了确定震中区域和震级的网格搜索试算方法(GSTSL),并给出了确定震中位置和震级的等值线置信值.采用所建立的分析方法,对1786年康定地震,1850年西昌地震,1913年峨山地震和1970年通海地震进行了分析,给出了更为精确合理的结果.
We have estabished an intensity attenuation relationship and analysis method between the epicentrers and magnitudes of historical earthquakes with modern instrumental records and intensity data.With this technique, we have focused our study on Southwest China where there are a lot of moderate or large historical and modern earthquakes occurred since last a few centuries.First, fourteen earthquakes with modern instrumental records with magnitude ranging from M_s 5.9 to 8.0 in this region are used to develop an intensity-magnitude-epicentral distance attenuation relationship.The intensity attenuation relation predicts that, with the same earthquake magnitude, the intensity decreases with distance in this region at a rate about 60% of predicted by the California intensity attenuation model.Based on the intensity attenuation model, we have proposed the Grid Searching of Trial Source Location (GSTSL) method for estimating earthquake magnitudes and bounding epicentral regions, and the confidence value of contours are also calculated.Finally, in order to test the technical strategy we have developed in estimating historical earthquake magnitude and bounding epicentrers.Four typical earthquakes are used in our analysis.They are the 1786 KangDing event, 1850 Xichang event, 1913 Eshan event and 1970 TongHai event.
We have estabished an intensity attenuation relationship and analysis method between the epicentrers and magnitudes of historical earthquakes with modern instrumental records and intensity data.With this technique, we have focused our study on Southwest China where there are a lot of moderate or large historical and modern earthquakes occurred since last a few centuries.First, fourteen earthquakes with modern instrumental records with magnitude ranging from M_s 5.9 to 8.0 in this region are used to develop an intensity-magnitude-epicentral distance attenuation relationship.The intensity attenuation relation predicts that, with the same earthquake magnitude, the intensity decreases with distance in this region at a rate about 60% of predicted by the California intensity attenuation model.Based on the intensity attenuation model, we have proposed the Grid Searching of Trial Source Location (GSTSL) method for estimating earthquake magnitudes and bounding epicentral regions, and the confidence value of contours are also calculated.Finally, in order to test the technical strategy we have developed in estimating historical earthquake magnitude and bounding epicentrers.Four typical earthquakes are used in our analysis.They are the 1786 KangDing event, 1850 Xichang event, 1913 Eshan event and 1970 TongHai event.
引文
① 陈运泰.汶川地震的成因断层、破裂过程与成灾机理.中国科学院第十四次院士大会学部学术年会学术报告汇编,2008,38～39．
[1] Hanks T C,Hileman J A,Thatcher W.Seismic moments of the larger earthquakes of the southern California region[J]. Geol Soc Am Bull,1975,86(8) :1131～1139．
[2] 国家地震局震害防御司.地震工作手册[M].北京:地震出版社,1990． The Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,State Seismological Bureau.The handbook of seismological job[M]. Beijing:Seismological Press,1990．
[3] Kanamori H.The radiated energy of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake,Washington,D.C[J].American Geophysical Union,2006,170:59～68．
[4] Bakun W H,Wentworth C M.Estimating earthquake location and magnitude form seismic intensity data[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1997,86(6) :1502～1521．
[5] Parsons T,Toda S,Stein R S,et al.Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul:An interaction-based probability calculation[J].Science,2000,288(5466) :661～665．
[6] Bakun W H,Haugerud M G,Hopper M G.The December 1872 Washington state earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,2002,92(8) :3239～3258．
[7] Bakun W H,Johnston A C,Hopper M G.Estimating locations and magnitudes in eastern north America from modified Mercalli intensities[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,2003,93(1) :190～202．
[8] Hinzen K G,Oemisch M.Location and magnitude from seismic intensity data of recent and historic earthquakes in the northern Rhine area,central Europe.Bull Seism Soc Am,2001,91(1) :40～56．
[9] 张扬,史保平,马干,等.华北地区烈度衰减模型建及其用于震中区域和震级的定量估算[J].地震学报,2009,31(3) :290～306． Zhang Y,Shi B P,Ma G,et al.The development of earthquake intensity attenuation model in northern-china and its application in quantitatively estimating the earthquake location and magnitude[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2009,31(3) :290～306．
[10] 顾功叙.中国地震目录(公元前1831年～公元1969年)[M]. 北京:科学出版社,1983 Gu X G.The catalogue of Chinese Earthquake(1831BC～1969AD)[M].Beijing:Science Press,1983．
[11] 中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年～1990年,M_s≥4． 7) [M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999． The Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,Chinese Seismological Bureau.The catalogue of Chinese Earthquake(1912AD-1990AD,M_s≥4． 7) [M].Beijing:Science and Technology of China Press,1999．
[12] 张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽等.2008年汶川8． 0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4) :1066～1073 Zhang P Z,Xu X W,Wen X Z,et al.Slip rates and recurrence intervals of the Longmen Shan active fault zone and tectonic implications for the mechanism of the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake,2008,Sichuan,China[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(4) .1066～1073．
[13] 李勇,周荣军,董顺利,等.汶川地震的地表破裂与逆冲走滑作用[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2008,35(4) :404～413 Li Y,Zhou R J.Dong S L,et al.Surface rupture,thrusting and strike-slipping in the Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China[J].Journal of Cheng du University of Technology(Science & Technology Edition)(in Chinese),2008,35(4) :404～413
[14] 王卫民,赵连峰,李娟等.四川汶川.级地震震源过程[J].地球物理学报,51(5) :Wang W M,Zhao L F,Li J,et al.Rupture process of the M_s 8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(5) :1403～1410
[1] Hanks T C,Hileman J A,Thatcher W.Seismic moments of the larger earthquakes of the southern California region[J]. Geol Soc Am Bull,1975,86(8) :1131～1139．
[2] 国家地震局震害防御司.地震工作手册[M].北京:地震出版社,1990． The Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,State Seismological Bureau.The handbook of seismological job[M]. Beijing:Seismological Press,1990．
[3] Kanamori H.The radiated energy of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake,Washington,D.C[J].American Geophysical Union,2006,170:59～68．
[4] Bakun W H,Wentworth C M.Estimating earthquake location and magnitude form seismic intensity data[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1997,86(6) :1502～1521．
[5] Parsons T,Toda S,Stein R S,et al.Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul:An interaction-based probability calculation[J].Science,2000,288(5466) :661～665．
[6] Bakun W H,Haugerud M G,Hopper M G.The December 1872 Washington state earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,2002,92(8) :3239～3258．
[7] Bakun W H,Johnston A C,Hopper M G.Estimating locations and magnitudes in eastern north America from modified Mercalli intensities[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,2003,93(1) :190～202．
[8] Hinzen K G,Oemisch M.Location and magnitude from seismic intensity data of recent and historic earthquakes in the northern Rhine area,central Europe.Bull Seism Soc Am,2001,91(1) :40～56．
[9] 张扬,史保平,马干,等.华北地区烈度衰减模型建及其用于震中区域和震级的定量估算[J].地震学报,2009,31(3) :290～306． Zhang Y,Shi B P,Ma G,et al.The development of earthquake intensity attenuation model in northern-china and its application in quantitatively estimating the earthquake location and magnitude[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2009,31(3) :290～306．
[10] 顾功叙.中国地震目录(公元前1831年～公元1969年)[M]. 北京:科学出版社,1983 Gu X G.The catalogue of Chinese Earthquake(1831BC～1969AD)[M].Beijing:Science Press,1983．
[11] 中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年～1990年,M_s≥4． 7) [M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999． The Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,Chinese Seismological Bureau.The catalogue of Chinese Earthquake(1912AD-1990AD,M_s≥4． 7) [M].Beijing:Science and Technology of China Press,1999．
[12] 张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽等.2008年汶川8． 0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4) :1066～1073 Zhang P Z,Xu X W,Wen X Z,et al.Slip rates and recurrence intervals of the Longmen Shan active fault zone and tectonic implications for the mechanism of the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake,2008,Sichuan,China[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(4) .1066～1073．
[13] 李勇,周荣军,董顺利,等.汶川地震的地表破裂与逆冲走滑作用[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2008,35(4) :404～413 Li Y,Zhou R J.Dong S L,et al.Surface rupture,thrusting and strike-slipping in the Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China[J].Journal of Cheng du University of Technology(Science & Technology Edition)(in Chinese),2008,35(4) :404～413
[14] 王卫民,赵连峰,李娟等.四川汶川.级地震震源过程[J].地球物理学报,51(5) :Wang W M,Zhao L F,Li J,et al.Rupture process of the M_s 8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(5) :1403～1410
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