青海东部历史时期的自然灾害与LUCC和气候变化
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摘要
研究了1429-1900AD中,青海东部的旱灾、冰雹、洪灾、地震等自然灾害发生数量和频率显著增多,明显分为两个时段,在1429-1709AD,相对平稳,在1709-1990AD,自然灾害发生数量和频率骤增,旱灾、冰雹、洪灾发生的频率分别较前一时段增加了1.9倍、8倍和17.6倍,洪灾的增长最快;相关分析表明:从1429-1900AD,本区人口数量和冰雹、旱灾呈显著的正相关,相关系数分别为0.92,0.594,屯田垦殖与洪灾相关系数达0.967。明清以来,青海东部大量的人口增长、和垦殖活动,改变了区域的LUCC状况,是致使本区自然灾害频繁发生的主要驱动力;同时也发现因此气候变化对本区的自然灾害有影响,尤其是对旱灾的影响非常显著。
During 1429-1900AD the amount and frequency of the natural disasters(drought,ice,flood,earthquake etc) were showed increasing.In 1429-1709AD,the natural disasters kept steady,but during 1709-1900AD,they were increased rapidly.The frequency of drought,ice,flood respectively were 2.76,34,3.65 every 10 years,compared to first time of 1429-1900AD,they respectively increased 1.9,8 and 17.6 times,and the flood was the strongest.At the same time,the population of the region was gradually increased.In the early period of Ming Dynasty,the population was still low,in the middle period of ming dynasty,the population started obviously increasing.In the early of Qing Dynasty,the population attained to 0.1 million,it was attainted to near 1 million in the middle period of Qing Dynasty.In the course,farmlands were expanded greatly,the LUCC of the region had occurred to change entirely.The livestock farming became into farmlands.Related analysis showed the population was related with drought,ice etc between 1429-1990AD,the coefficient attain to 0.92 and 0.594;the coefficient of the farmlands and drought attained to 0.967.As a result,since Ming Dynasty,the increase of population and farmlands of the region changed the LUCC,which was the main driving force to lead to the natural disaster frequently happen.On the other hand,the climate change made some influence on natural disasters,specially it was more obvious for drought.
During 1429-1900AD the amount and frequency of the natural disasters(drought,ice,flood,earthquake etc) were showed increasing.In 1429-1709AD,the natural disasters kept steady,but during 1709-1900AD,they were increased rapidly.The frequency of drought,ice,flood respectively were 2.76,34,3.65 every 10 years,compared to first time of 1429-1900AD,they respectively increased 1.9,8 and 17.6 times,and the flood was the strongest.At the same time,the population of the region was gradually increased.In the early period of Ming Dynasty,the population was still low,in the middle period of ming dynasty,the population started obviously increasing.In the early of Qing Dynasty,the population attained to 0.1 million,it was attainted to near 1 million in the middle period of Qing Dynasty.In the course,farmlands were expanded greatly,the LUCC of the region had occurred to change entirely.The livestock farming became into farmlands.Related analysis showed the population was related with drought,ice etc between 1429-1990AD,the coefficient attain to 0.92 and 0.594;the coefficient of the farmlands and drought attained to 0.967.As a result,since Ming Dynasty,the increase of population and farmlands of the region changed the LUCC,which was the main driving force to lead to the natural disaster frequently happen.On the other hand,the climate change made some influence on natural disasters,specially it was more obvious for drought.
引文
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[2]Yin shuyan,Huang chunchang,et al.Historical drought and water disaters in the weihe plain[J].Journal of geographical sciences,2005,15(1):97~105.
[3]崔永红,张得祖,等.青海通史[M].西宁:青海人民出版社,2000,135~223.
[4]青海地方志编撰委员会.青海地方志选编[M].西宁:青海人民出版社,1985,89~178.
[5]张忠孝.青海地理[M].西宁:青海人民出版社,2004,200~213.
[6]方修琦,叶瑜,等.从城镇体系的演变看清代东北地区的土地开发[J].地理科学,2005,25(2):129~134.
[7]杨应琚(清).西宁府新志[M].西宁:青海人民出版社,1990,341~344.
[8]王绍武,董光荣,主编.中国西部环境演变评估[M].北京:科学出版社,2002,1:43~49.
[9]康兴成,Lisa J.Graumlich,等.青海都兰地区1 835a年轮序列的建立和初步分析[J].科学通报,1997,42(10):1089~1091.
[10]杨保,康兴成,等.近2000年都兰树轮10年尺度的气候变化及其与中国其它地区温度代用资料的比较[J].地理科学,2000,20(5):397~402.
[11]张家武,金明,等.青海湖沉积岩芯记录的青藏高原东北部过去800年以来的降水变化[J].科学通报,2004,49(1):10~14.
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