中国大陆及其邻近地区7级以上强震分布特征
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摘要
基于印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞的形态、应力方向及其地貌特征,本文对1895-2016年的7级以上地震活动划分了3个轮回,每个轮回分为两个活动阶段,结果表明3个轮回的地震空间分布有较好的重复性,印度板块向北的推进过程,控制了我国大陆地震活动的阶段性及其分布形态。类比历史地震活动特征,提出未来我国大陆地震活动的主体地区为祁连山褶皱系附近,存在发生2-3次7级以上地震的可能,受印度板块继续向北推挤的影响,我国西南地区也存在发生7级以上地震的可能。
On the basis of the shape,stress direction and geomorphological features of Indian and Eurasian Plate collision.Ms≥7 seismic activity from 1895 to 2016 is divided into three cycles.And each cycle is divided into two activity periods.This result shows that the seismic space distribution of the three cycles is well repetitive,and the seismic activity stage and its distribution shape in the mainland of China have been controlled by the pushing process of Indian Plate.Compared with the historical seismic activity features,the main seismic activity in the mainland of China would occur around Ch′i-lien Mountains fold system.Ms≥7 earthquakes might happen twice or three times in Northwest China,as the effect of Indian Plate pushing northward.
On the basis of the shape,stress direction and geomorphological features of Indian and Eurasian Plate collision.Ms≥7 seismic activity from 1895 to 2016 is divided into three cycles.And each cycle is divided into two activity periods.This result shows that the seismic space distribution of the three cycles is well repetitive,and the seismic activity stage and its distribution shape in the mainland of China have been controlled by the pushing process of Indian Plate.Compared with the historical seismic activity features,the main seismic activity in the mainland of China would occur around Ch′i-lien Mountains fold system.Ms≥7 earthquakes might happen twice or three times in Northwest China,as the effect of Indian Plate pushing northward.
引文
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[2]环文林,汪素云,时振梁等.青藏高原震源分布与板块运动[J].地球物理学报,1980,Vol.23,No.3,P269-279.
[3]赵文津,薛光琦,吴珍汉等.西藏高原上地幔的精细结构与构造—地震层析成像给出的启示[J].地球物理学报,2004,Vol.47,No.3,P449-455.
[4]王绳祖,张宗淳.亚洲中东部地区塑性流动波(“慢波”)与地震活动[J].地震地质,2004,Vol.26,No.1,P91-101.
[5]谢富仁,崔效锋,赵建涛.全球应力场与构造分析[J].地学前缘,2003,Vol.10,特刊,P23-30.
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