中国西部及邻区大地震时空特征、地质背景及发展趋势分析
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摘要
在中国西部及邻区有一个以中国南北地震带—蒙古东部地震带、喜马拉雅地震带和帕米尔—天山—阿尔泰山—蒙古西部地震带为3条边而组成的巨型中亚三角形地震带,其大地震发生的强度之大、频度之高以及重复率之高、重复周期之短,在世界大陆上绝无仅有。这些大地震在空间上受到大地构造位置、构造应力场-滑移线场、介质力学条件、壳内低阻流变层和先存力学脆弱带等五位一体的复合控制,震中主要分布于3条边与活动断裂带交叉处的中—上地壳中;在时间上存在以21.5 a±为最小单元的多种周期。印度板块的持续顶撞和推挤,是该带大地震孕育的能源,而太阳黑子活动和地球自转速率变化可能是该带地震的触发因素。以2001年昆仑山大地震和2008年汶川大地震为标志,中亚三角形地震带可能进入了一个新的107.5 a活动中周期。果真如此,则未来数十年内在该三角形的3条边及其周缘,可能分别发生若干个M≥8.0级大地震和多个M≥7.0级强地震。
There is a giant triangle seismic zone in Central Asia,which is composed of the China North-South Seismic Belt-Mongolia Eastern Seismic Zone,the Pamir-Tianshan-Altay-Mongolia Western Seismic Belt and the Himalayan Seismic Belt,forming the three sides of the triangle.The high-intensity,high frequentness,high repetition rate,and short repeat cycle of large earthquakes in the triangle seismic zone are unique in the continents of the world.These large earthquakes were controlled complexly by tectonic location,tectonic stress field,slip-line field,media mechanics conditions,low resistance rheological layer in the earth's crust,and pre-existing mechanical fragile zones.The epicenters located mainly in middle-upper crust of the intersection between the three sides and the active faults.The minimum interval between two earthquakes was 21.5± years.The continued push from the Indian plate was the dynamic sources inducing such a large earthquake,whereas the sunspot activity and the change in autorotation rate of the earth may be the triggered factors for the earthquake.The 2001 Kunlun large earthquake and 2008 Wenchuan large earthquake may be the symbol mark suggesting that the triangle seismic zone in Central Asia has entered a new active period of 107.5 years.If that is true,the large earthquakes ranging from M≥7.0 to M≥8.0 may occur potentially around the three sides of the triangle in the future decades.
There is a giant triangle seismic zone in Central Asia,which is composed of the China North-South Seismic Belt-Mongolia Eastern Seismic Zone,the Pamir-Tianshan-Altay-Mongolia Western Seismic Belt and the Himalayan Seismic Belt,forming the three sides of the triangle.The high-intensity,high frequentness,high repetition rate,and short repeat cycle of large earthquakes in the triangle seismic zone are unique in the continents of the world.These large earthquakes were controlled complexly by tectonic location,tectonic stress field,slip-line field,media mechanics conditions,low resistance rheological layer in the earth's crust,and pre-existing mechanical fragile zones.The epicenters located mainly in middle-upper crust of the intersection between the three sides and the active faults.The minimum interval between two earthquakes was 21.5± years.The continued push from the Indian plate was the dynamic sources inducing such a large earthquake,whereas the sunspot activity and the change in autorotation rate of the earth may be the triggered factors for the earthquake.The 2001 Kunlun large earthquake and 2008 Wenchuan large earthquake may be the symbol mark suggesting that the triangle seismic zone in Central Asia has entered a new active period of 107.5 years.If that is true,the large earthquakes ranging from M≥7.0 to M≥8.0 may occur potentially around the three sides of the triangle in the future decades.
引文
①吴冲龙.汶川5.12大地震地震地质考察报告[R].中国地质大学(武汉)科技赈灾队,2008-06.
[1]Ma Z J,Zhen D L.The Chinese-mongolian continental mid-axis tectonic belt andits seismicity[J].Journal of Seismologi-cal Research,1981,4(4):421-436(in Chinese).
[2]Yong Y Y.Division of the north-south seismic belt in Chinaand its significance[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,1988(1):31-34(in Chinese).
[3]Tapponnier P,Peltzer G,Le Dain A Y,et al.Propagatingextrusion tectonics in Asia:Newinsights fromsi mple experi-ments with plasticine[J].Geology,1982,10:611-616.
[4]Luo Z L.The relationship between India collision northwardand the present tectonic stress fieldin western China and ad-jacent areas and seismic activity[J].Northwestern Seismo-logical Journal,1979,1(4):11-21(in Chinese).
[5]Li P,Wang L M.Exploration of the seismo-geological fea-tures of the Yunnan-west Sichuan region[J].Scientia Geolog-ica Sinica,1975(4):308-326(in Chinese).
[6]Cai X L;Cao J M,Zhu J S,et al.The systemof crust-man-tle ductile shear zones in China continental lithosphere[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2008,15(3):37-54(in Chinese).
[7]Li J L.The tectonic evolution of Sanjiang belt in westernYunnan[J].Scientia Geologica Sinica,1988(4):337-345(inChinese).
[8]Cong B L,Wu G Y,Zhang Q,et al.Petro-tectonic evolutionof Paleo-tethys tectonic zone in China s western Yunnan[J].Science in China:Series B,1993,23(11):1201-1207(in Chi-nese).
[9]State Seismological Bureau.China Earthquakes Catalog[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1977(in Chinese).
[10]Xu X W,Yu G H,Chen G H,et al.Near-surface characterof permanent geologic deformation across the mega-strike-slipfaults in the northern Tibetan Plateau[J].Seismology andGeology,2007,29(2):201-217(in Chinese).
[11]Xu X W,Yu G H,Ma W T,et al.Model of latest crustaltectonic motion of the central tectonic zone onthe mainland ofChina[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2003,10(Special):160-167(in Chinese).
[12]Ma ZJ,Chen X L,Ye S H,et al.The study on GPS of crus-tal movement in China mainland present-day[J].Chinese Sci-ence Bulletin,2001,46(13):1120-1128(in Chinese).
[13]Wang Q,Zhang P Z,Niu Z J,et al.Crustal movement andstructural deformations in China mainland present-day[J].Science in China:Series D,2001,31(7):529-536(in Chi-nese).
[14]Shen Z K,Ge B X,Jackson D D,et al.Northridge earth-quake rupture models based on the Global Positioning Systemmeasurements[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of A-merica,1996,86:37-48.
[15]Huang X W,Zhou J,Wang X C.The i mpact of TibetanPlateau on newtectonic movement in China[J].EarthquakeResearchin Sichuan,1978(2):12-19(in Chinese).
[16]Royden L H,Burchfiel B C,King R W,et al.Surface de-formation and lower crustal flow in eastern Tibet[J].Sci-ence,1997,276:788-790.
[17]Enkel man E,Ratschbacher L,Jonckheere R,et al.Cenozoicexhumation and deformation of northeastern Tibet and theQinling:Is Tibetan lower crustal flow diverging around theSichuan Basin[J]?Geological Society of America Bulletin,2006,118:651-671.
[18]SchoenbohmL M,Burchfiel B C,Liangzhong C.Propagationof surface uplift,lower crustal flow,and Cenozoic tectonicsof the southeast margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Geology,2006,34(10):813-816.
[19]State Seismological Bureau.World Earthquakes Catalog[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1973(in Chinese).
[20]Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy ofSciences.China Strong Earthquakes Catalog[M].Beijing:Sino Maps Press,1976(in Chinese).
[21]Abe K.Complements to“Magnitudes of large shallowearth-quakes 1904 to 1980”[J].Physics of the Earth and PlanetaryInteriors,1984(34):17-25.
[22]Yong Y Y.Activity characteristics of large earthquakes(M≥7)in Tibetan Plateau and adjacent areas[J].Earthquake Re-searchin Sichuan,1990(4):16-19(in Chinese).
[23]Mogi K.Active periods in the world s chief seismic belts[J].Tectonophysics,1974,22(3/4):265-282.
[24]Ma Z J,Jiang M.Strong earthquake periods and episodes inChina[J].Earthquake Researchin China,1987,3(1):47-51(in Chinese).
[25]Wu C L.The spatial,temporal and intensity characteristicsof Songpan PingwuMs7.2 Strong Earthquake[J].Earth-quake Researchin Sichuan,1979(1):16-22(in Chinese).
[26]Luo S F,Liang S G,Ye S H,et al.Analysis of the periodici-ty of the irregular rotation of the Earth[J].Acta Astronomi-ca Sinica,1974,15(1):79-85(in Chinese).
[27]Ye S H.The inhomogeneity of Earth rotation rate and cur-rent researches[M]∥Geomechanics Forum.Beijing:Geolog-ical Publishing House,1964(2):66-75(in Chinese).
[28]Stobac M B.The inhomogeneity of Earth rotation rate:Shape of earth and tectonic factors[M]∥Ministry of GeologyGeomechanics ResearchInstitute.Geomechanics Forum.Bei-jing:Geological Publishing House,1959:21-36(in Chinese).
[29]Li Q B,Xiao X H,Li Z S.Preli minary study on the relationbetween the great Earth quakes of China and the secular vari-ation of the angular velocity of rotation of the Earth[J].ActaGeophysica Sinica,1973,16(1):71-80(in Chinese).
[30]Molnar P J,Tapponnier P.Cenozoic tectonics of Asia:Effects of a continental collision[J].Science,1975,189:419-426.
[31]Luo Z L,Luo W,Chen N.The recent tectonic slip line inChina mainland and adjacent areas:Seismicity structure[J].Earthquake Researchin Sichuan,1989(1):1-8(in Chinese).
[32]Chen Y T,Xu L S,Zhang Y,et al.The Analysis Report onEarthquake Source Characteristics ofM8.0 Wenchuan Earth-quake on May 12,2008[R/OL].[2008-08-04]http:∥www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/chenyuntai.pdf(in Chinese).
[1]马宗晋,郑大林.中蒙大陆中轴构造带及其地震活动[J].地震研究,1981,4(4):421-436.
[2]雍幼予.中国南北地震带的划分及其意义[J].四川地震,1988(1):31-34.
[4]罗灼礼.印度板块向北顶撞作用与我国西部及邻区现代构造应力场和地震活动的关系[J].西北地震学报,1979,1(4):11-21.
[5]李坪,汪良谋.云南川西地区地震地质基本特征的探讨[J].地质科学,1975(4):308-326.
[6]蔡学林,曹家敏,朱介寿,等.中国大陆岩石圈壳幔韧性剪切带系统[J].地学前缘,2008,15(3):37-54.
[7]李继亮.滇西三江带的大地构造演化[J].地质科学,1988(4):337-345.
[8]从柏林,吴根耀,张旗,等.中国滇西古特提斯构造带岩石大地构造演化[J].中国科学:B辑,1993,23(11):1201-1207.
[9]国家地震局.中国地震简目[M].北京:地震出版社,1977.
[10]徐锡伟,于贵华,陈桂华,等.青藏高原北部大型走滑断裂带近地表地质变形带特征分析[J].地震地质,2007,29(2):201-217.
[11]徐锡伟,于贵华,马文涛,等.中国大陆中轴构造带地壳最新构造变动样式及其动力学内涵[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):160-167.
[12]马宗晋,陈鑫连,叶叔华,等.中国大陆区现今地壳运动的GPS研究[J].科学通报,2001,46(13):1120-1128.
[13]王琪,张培震,牛之俊,等.中国大陆现今地壳运动和构造变形[J].中国科学:D辑,2001,31(7):529-536.
[15]黄修武,周玖,王学昌.青藏高原对中国新构造运动的影响[J].四川地震,1978(2):12-19.
[19]国家地震局.世界大地震简目[M].北京:地震出版社,1973.
[20]中国科学院地球物理研究所.中国强地震简目[M].北京:地图出版社,1976.
[22]雍幼予.青藏高原及其邻近地区巨大地震(M≥7)的活动特征[J].四川地震,1990(4):16-19.
[24]马宗晋,蒋铭.中国地震期与强震幕[J].中国地震,1987,3(1):47-51.
[25]吴冲龙.松潘—平武7.2级强震的时、空、强特征[J].四川地震,1979(1):16-22.
[26]罗时芳,梁世光,叶叔华,等.地球自转速率变化的周期分析[J].天文学报,1974,15(1):79-85.
[27]叶叔华.地球自转速率的不均匀性及其研究近况[M]∥地质力学论丛.北京:地质出版社,1964(2):66-75.
[28]Stobac MB.地球自转的不均衡性:地球形态及大地构造的因素[M]∥地质部地质力学研究室.地质力学论丛.北京:地质出版社,1959:21-36.
[29]李启斌,肖兴华,李致森.中国大陆强地震与地球自转角速度长期变化关系的初步分析[J].地球物理学报,1973,16(1):71-80.
[31]罗灼礼,罗伟,陈农.我国大陆及其邻区现代构造滑移线:地震活动格架[J].四川地震,1989(1):1-8.
[32]陈运泰,许力生,张勇,等.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[R/OL].[2008-08-04].http:∥www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/chenyuntai.pdf.
[1]Ma Z J,Zhen D L.The Chinese-mongolian continental mid-axis tectonic belt andits seismicity[J].Journal of Seismologi-cal Research,1981,4(4):421-436(in Chinese).
[2]Yong Y Y.Division of the north-south seismic belt in Chinaand its significance[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,1988(1):31-34(in Chinese).
[3]Tapponnier P,Peltzer G,Le Dain A Y,et al.Propagatingextrusion tectonics in Asia:Newinsights fromsi mple experi-ments with plasticine[J].Geology,1982,10:611-616.
[4]Luo Z L.The relationship between India collision northwardand the present tectonic stress fieldin western China and ad-jacent areas and seismic activity[J].Northwestern Seismo-logical Journal,1979,1(4):11-21(in Chinese).
[5]Li P,Wang L M.Exploration of the seismo-geological fea-tures of the Yunnan-west Sichuan region[J].Scientia Geolog-ica Sinica,1975(4):308-326(in Chinese).
[6]Cai X L;Cao J M,Zhu J S,et al.The systemof crust-man-tle ductile shear zones in China continental lithosphere[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2008,15(3):37-54(in Chinese).
[7]Li J L.The tectonic evolution of Sanjiang belt in westernYunnan[J].Scientia Geologica Sinica,1988(4):337-345(inChinese).
[8]Cong B L,Wu G Y,Zhang Q,et al.Petro-tectonic evolutionof Paleo-tethys tectonic zone in China s western Yunnan[J].Science in China:Series B,1993,23(11):1201-1207(in Chi-nese).
[9]State Seismological Bureau.China Earthquakes Catalog[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1977(in Chinese).
[10]Xu X W,Yu G H,Chen G H,et al.Near-surface characterof permanent geologic deformation across the mega-strike-slipfaults in the northern Tibetan Plateau[J].Seismology andGeology,2007,29(2):201-217(in Chinese).
[11]Xu X W,Yu G H,Ma W T,et al.Model of latest crustaltectonic motion of the central tectonic zone onthe mainland ofChina[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2003,10(Special):160-167(in Chinese).
[12]Ma ZJ,Chen X L,Ye S H,et al.The study on GPS of crus-tal movement in China mainland present-day[J].Chinese Sci-ence Bulletin,2001,46(13):1120-1128(in Chinese).
[13]Wang Q,Zhang P Z,Niu Z J,et al.Crustal movement andstructural deformations in China mainland present-day[J].Science in China:Series D,2001,31(7):529-536(in Chi-nese).
[14]Shen Z K,Ge B X,Jackson D D,et al.Northridge earth-quake rupture models based on the Global Positioning Systemmeasurements[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of A-merica,1996,86:37-48.
[15]Huang X W,Zhou J,Wang X C.The i mpact of TibetanPlateau on newtectonic movement in China[J].EarthquakeResearchin Sichuan,1978(2):12-19(in Chinese).
[16]Royden L H,Burchfiel B C,King R W,et al.Surface de-formation and lower crustal flow in eastern Tibet[J].Sci-ence,1997,276:788-790.
[17]Enkel man E,Ratschbacher L,Jonckheere R,et al.Cenozoicexhumation and deformation of northeastern Tibet and theQinling:Is Tibetan lower crustal flow diverging around theSichuan Basin[J]?Geological Society of America Bulletin,2006,118:651-671.
[18]SchoenbohmL M,Burchfiel B C,Liangzhong C.Propagationof surface uplift,lower crustal flow,and Cenozoic tectonicsof the southeast margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Geology,2006,34(10):813-816.
[19]State Seismological Bureau.World Earthquakes Catalog[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1973(in Chinese).
[20]Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy ofSciences.China Strong Earthquakes Catalog[M].Beijing:Sino Maps Press,1976(in Chinese).
[21]Abe K.Complements to“Magnitudes of large shallowearth-quakes 1904 to 1980”[J].Physics of the Earth and PlanetaryInteriors,1984(34):17-25.
[22]Yong Y Y.Activity characteristics of large earthquakes(M≥7)in Tibetan Plateau and adjacent areas[J].Earthquake Re-searchin Sichuan,1990(4):16-19(in Chinese).
[23]Mogi K.Active periods in the world s chief seismic belts[J].Tectonophysics,1974,22(3/4):265-282.
[24]Ma Z J,Jiang M.Strong earthquake periods and episodes inChina[J].Earthquake Researchin China,1987,3(1):47-51(in Chinese).
[25]Wu C L.The spatial,temporal and intensity characteristicsof Songpan PingwuMs7.2 Strong Earthquake[J].Earth-quake Researchin Sichuan,1979(1):16-22(in Chinese).
[26]Luo S F,Liang S G,Ye S H,et al.Analysis of the periodici-ty of the irregular rotation of the Earth[J].Acta Astronomi-ca Sinica,1974,15(1):79-85(in Chinese).
[27]Ye S H.The inhomogeneity of Earth rotation rate and cur-rent researches[M]∥Geomechanics Forum.Beijing:Geolog-ical Publishing House,1964(2):66-75(in Chinese).
[28]Stobac M B.The inhomogeneity of Earth rotation rate:Shape of earth and tectonic factors[M]∥Ministry of GeologyGeomechanics ResearchInstitute.Geomechanics Forum.Bei-jing:Geological Publishing House,1959:21-36(in Chinese).
[29]Li Q B,Xiao X H,Li Z S.Preli minary study on the relationbetween the great Earth quakes of China and the secular vari-ation of the angular velocity of rotation of the Earth[J].ActaGeophysica Sinica,1973,16(1):71-80(in Chinese).
[30]Molnar P J,Tapponnier P.Cenozoic tectonics of Asia:Effects of a continental collision[J].Science,1975,189:419-426.
[31]Luo Z L,Luo W,Chen N.The recent tectonic slip line inChina mainland and adjacent areas:Seismicity structure[J].Earthquake Researchin Sichuan,1989(1):1-8(in Chinese).
[32]Chen Y T,Xu L S,Zhang Y,et al.The Analysis Report onEarthquake Source Characteristics ofM8.0 Wenchuan Earth-quake on May 12,2008[R/OL].[2008-08-04]http:∥www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/chenyuntai.pdf(in Chinese).
[1]马宗晋,郑大林.中蒙大陆中轴构造带及其地震活动[J].地震研究,1981,4(4):421-436.
[2]雍幼予.中国南北地震带的划分及其意义[J].四川地震,1988(1):31-34.
[4]罗灼礼.印度板块向北顶撞作用与我国西部及邻区现代构造应力场和地震活动的关系[J].西北地震学报,1979,1(4):11-21.
[5]李坪,汪良谋.云南川西地区地震地质基本特征的探讨[J].地质科学,1975(4):308-326.
[6]蔡学林,曹家敏,朱介寿,等.中国大陆岩石圈壳幔韧性剪切带系统[J].地学前缘,2008,15(3):37-54.
[7]李继亮.滇西三江带的大地构造演化[J].地质科学,1988(4):337-345.
[8]从柏林,吴根耀,张旗,等.中国滇西古特提斯构造带岩石大地构造演化[J].中国科学:B辑,1993,23(11):1201-1207.
[9]国家地震局.中国地震简目[M].北京:地震出版社,1977.
[10]徐锡伟,于贵华,陈桂华,等.青藏高原北部大型走滑断裂带近地表地质变形带特征分析[J].地震地质,2007,29(2):201-217.
[11]徐锡伟,于贵华,马文涛,等.中国大陆中轴构造带地壳最新构造变动样式及其动力学内涵[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):160-167.
[12]马宗晋,陈鑫连,叶叔华,等.中国大陆区现今地壳运动的GPS研究[J].科学通报,2001,46(13):1120-1128.
[13]王琪,张培震,牛之俊,等.中国大陆现今地壳运动和构造变形[J].中国科学:D辑,2001,31(7):529-536.
[15]黄修武,周玖,王学昌.青藏高原对中国新构造运动的影响[J].四川地震,1978(2):12-19.
[19]国家地震局.世界大地震简目[M].北京:地震出版社,1973.
[20]中国科学院地球物理研究所.中国强地震简目[M].北京:地图出版社,1976.
[22]雍幼予.青藏高原及其邻近地区巨大地震(M≥7)的活动特征[J].四川地震,1990(4):16-19.
[24]马宗晋,蒋铭.中国地震期与强震幕[J].中国地震,1987,3(1):47-51.
[25]吴冲龙.松潘—平武7.2级强震的时、空、强特征[J].四川地震,1979(1):16-22.
[26]罗时芳,梁世光,叶叔华,等.地球自转速率变化的周期分析[J].天文学报,1974,15(1):79-85.
[27]叶叔华.地球自转速率的不均匀性及其研究近况[M]∥地质力学论丛.北京:地质出版社,1964(2):66-75.
[28]Stobac MB.地球自转的不均衡性:地球形态及大地构造的因素[M]∥地质部地质力学研究室.地质力学论丛.北京:地质出版社,1959:21-36.
[29]李启斌,肖兴华,李致森.中国大陆强地震与地球自转角速度长期变化关系的初步分析[J].地球物理学报,1973,16(1):71-80.
[31]罗灼礼,罗伟,陈农.我国大陆及其邻区现代构造滑移线:地震活动格架[J].四川地震,1989(1):1-8.
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