歹字型构造体系在地震预测中的应用
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摘要
青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系和北美洲西海岸歹字型构造体系是李四光在70多年前提出的两个巨型歹字型构造体系。近年来,歹字型构造体系被应用于地震预测。应用青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系预测2008年汶川8.3级巨震,应用北美洲西海岸歹字型构造体系预测2010年4月5日墨西哥7.5级大地震,均获成功。进一步研究表明,位于同一歹字型构造体系的2个或3个特大巨震的时间间隔为53～54 a,相当于三个沙罗周期的长度,歹字型构造体系的近代活动基本上是与天文因素有关的,这一联系可被应用于地震预测。
The eta-type tectonic system was suggested by academician Li Si-guan more than 70 years ago,and two great eta-type tectonic systems have been described by him: one is located in Qinhai-Xizang(Tibet)-Yunan-Burma-Indonesia(QXYBI),and the another is Western part of North America(WNA).Recently they have been applied to the earthquake prediction successfully.In this paper a brief introduction is concerned to the prediction of MS 8.3 Wenchuan Earthquake occurred on May 12th,2008 by Huang Xiang-ning based on the QXYBI eta-type tectonic system,and also to the prediction of MS 7.5 Mexico earthquake occurred on April 5th,2010 by author according to the WNA eta-type tectonic system.The time intervals(about 53~54 years) among super-great earthquakes occurred in the same eta-type tectonic system demonstrate clear orderliness related to 3 times of astronomical Saros Period.Thus,it is clear that the modern seismic activity of eta-type tectonic systems is stimulated by the astronomical factors,and this character is favorable for the prediction of great earthquake in future.
The eta-type tectonic system was suggested by academician Li Si-guan more than 70 years ago,and two great eta-type tectonic systems have been described by him: one is located in Qinhai-Xizang(Tibet)-Yunan-Burma-Indonesia(QXYBI),and the another is Western part of North America(WNA).Recently they have been applied to the earthquake prediction successfully.In this paper a brief introduction is concerned to the prediction of MS 8.3 Wenchuan Earthquake occurred on May 12th,2008 by Huang Xiang-ning based on the QXYBI eta-type tectonic system,and also to the prediction of MS 7.5 Mexico earthquake occurred on April 5th,2010 by author according to the WNA eta-type tectonic system.The time intervals(about 53~54 years) among super-great earthquakes occurred in the same eta-type tectonic system demonstrate clear orderliness related to 3 times of astronomical Saros Period.Thus,it is clear that the modern seismic activity of eta-type tectonic systems is stimulated by the astronomical factors,and this character is favorable for the prediction of great earthquake in future.
引文
[1]李四光.地质力学概论[M].北京:科学出版社,1973.LI Si-guang.Elementary geomechanics[M].Beijing:Science Press,1973.
[2]李东旭.自主创新的楷模——纪念李四光120年诞辰[J].中国地质教育,2009,(4):92～95.LI Dong-xu.The model of self-creation:To commemorate the 120th anniversary of Li Siguan’s birth[J].ChinaGeological Education,2009,(4):92～95.
[3]李东旭,周济元.地质力学导论[M].北京:地质出版社,1986:1～343.LI Dong-xu,ZHOU Ji-yuan.Elementary geomechanics[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1986:1～343.
[4]谭成轩,孙叶,吴树仁,等.“5.12”汶川MS 8.0大地震后关于我国区域地壳稳定性评价的思考[J].地质力学学报,2009,15(2):142～149.TAN Cheng-xuan,SUN Ye,WU Shu-ren,et al.A consideration of regional crustal stability assessment after MS 8.0Wengchuan strong earthquake in China[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2009,15(2):142～149.
[5]李四光.论地震[M].北京:地质出版社,1977:1～288.LI Si-guang.On earthquake[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1977:1～288.
[6]李四光.旋卷构造及其他有关中国西北部大地构造体系复合问题[J].地质学报,1954,34(4):339～410.LI Si-guang.The vortex structure and other composite problems related to geotectonic systems in northwestern China[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,1954,34(4):339～410.
[7]李四光.地质力学方法[M].北京:科学出版社,1979:1～260.LI Si-guang.Methods of geomechanics[M].Beijing:Science Press,1979:1～260.
[8]陈培善.全球大震和中国及邻区中强地震活动(2008年4～5月)[J].地震学报,2008,30(5):545～549.CHEN Pei-shan.Strong earthquake activity all over the world and strong earthquake activity within and near China(April-May,2008)[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2008,30(5):545～549(in Chinese).
[9]徐道一.汶川巨震印度尼西亚巨震及其与青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系的关系[C]//康玉柱,王宗秀.学习李四光的创新精神,发展地质力学理论:著名地质学家李四光诞辰120周年纪念.北京:大地出版社,2009:147～152.XU Dao-yi.Wenchuan and Indonesian Earthquakes and their relation to tectonic regime in the Qinghai-Tibet-Yunnan-Burma[C]//Kang Yu-zhu,Wang Zong-xiu.Studying Li Si-guang’s innovative spirit and developing the theory ofgeomechanics:To commemorate the 120th anniversary of famous geologist Li Siguang’s birth.Beijing:Land Press,2009:147～152.
[10]《地质力学浅说》编写组.地质力学浅说[M].北京:地质出版社,1979:1～196.Edition Group of《Introduction of goemechanics》.Introduction of geomechanics[M].Beijing:Geological PublishingHouse,1979:1～196.
[11]苗培实,周显强.全球构造体系图(1∶2500万)说明书[M].北京:地震出版社,2010:1～43.MIAO Pei-shi,ZHOU Xian-qian.A summary of the explanatory notes to the global tectonic system map on(1∶25000000)[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2010:1～43.
[12]徐道一.21世纪初全球巨灾群发期的认识及其预测意义[C]//中国地球物理学会,中国地震学会.中国地球物理.北京:地震出版社,2010:384～385.XU Dao-yi.Cognition and prediction significance on global huge disasters at the early of the 21st century[C]//ChinaGeophysical Society,China Seismological Society.Geophysics in China.Beijing:Seismological Publishing House,2010:384～385.
[13]XU Dao-yi,MEN Ke-pei,DENG Zhi-hui.Self-organized ordering of earthquake(M≥8)in Mainland China[J].Engineering Sciences,2010,8(4):13～17.APPLICATION OF THE ETA-TYPE TECTONIC SERIESSUGGESTED BY LI SI-GUANG TO
①摘自1974年7月翻印的《地质力学概论(修改稿)》第113页,在1973版中未提及。
②黄相宁.2006年震情形势分析.见:中国地震预测咨询委员会.地震预测咨询通讯.2006,(1):19.
③黄相宁,等.2007年天灾预测研究.见:中国地震预测咨询委员会.地震预测咨询通讯.2007,(2):61～63.
④黄相宁.汶川地震预测与当前地震形势判断.见:中国地震预测咨询委员会.地震预测咨询通讯,2008,(3):50～52.
①黄相宁.天灾年度预测报告简表及附图.见:2007年天灾预测意见汇编.中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会,2007:42～43.
②徐道一.汶川巨震、印尼巨震与歹字型构造体系的关系及其预测意义.见:中国地震局地质研究所.中国大陆构造活动背景分析及2009年度地震危险性预测研究(2009年度地震会商报告).2008:73～82.
③徐道一.21世纪初的巨震群发期及其对中国大陆地震趋势的预测意义.见:中国地震局地质研究所.中国大陆构造活动背景分析及2010年度地震危险性预测研究.2009:49～56.
①李四光.地质力学概论.地质力学研究所,1962:77.
①见:中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会.2010年天灾预测意见汇编.2010:24.
[2]李东旭.自主创新的楷模——纪念李四光120年诞辰[J].中国地质教育,2009,(4):92～95.LI Dong-xu.The model of self-creation:To commemorate the 120th anniversary of Li Siguan’s birth[J].ChinaGeological Education,2009,(4):92～95.
[3]李东旭,周济元.地质力学导论[M].北京:地质出版社,1986:1～343.LI Dong-xu,ZHOU Ji-yuan.Elementary geomechanics[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1986:1～343.
[4]谭成轩,孙叶,吴树仁,等.“5.12”汶川MS 8.0大地震后关于我国区域地壳稳定性评价的思考[J].地质力学学报,2009,15(2):142～149.TAN Cheng-xuan,SUN Ye,WU Shu-ren,et al.A consideration of regional crustal stability assessment after MS 8.0Wengchuan strong earthquake in China[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2009,15(2):142～149.
[5]李四光.论地震[M].北京:地质出版社,1977:1～288.LI Si-guang.On earthquake[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1977:1～288.
[6]李四光.旋卷构造及其他有关中国西北部大地构造体系复合问题[J].地质学报,1954,34(4):339～410.LI Si-guang.The vortex structure and other composite problems related to geotectonic systems in northwestern China[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,1954,34(4):339～410.
[7]李四光.地质力学方法[M].北京:科学出版社,1979:1～260.LI Si-guang.Methods of geomechanics[M].Beijing:Science Press,1979:1～260.
[8]陈培善.全球大震和中国及邻区中强地震活动(2008年4～5月)[J].地震学报,2008,30(5):545～549.CHEN Pei-shan.Strong earthquake activity all over the world and strong earthquake activity within and near China(April-May,2008)[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2008,30(5):545～549(in Chinese).
[9]徐道一.汶川巨震印度尼西亚巨震及其与青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系的关系[C]//康玉柱,王宗秀.学习李四光的创新精神,发展地质力学理论:著名地质学家李四光诞辰120周年纪念.北京:大地出版社,2009:147～152.XU Dao-yi.Wenchuan and Indonesian Earthquakes and their relation to tectonic regime in the Qinghai-Tibet-Yunnan-Burma[C]//Kang Yu-zhu,Wang Zong-xiu.Studying Li Si-guang’s innovative spirit and developing the theory ofgeomechanics:To commemorate the 120th anniversary of famous geologist Li Siguang’s birth.Beijing:Land Press,2009:147～152.
[10]《地质力学浅说》编写组.地质力学浅说[M].北京:地质出版社,1979:1～196.Edition Group of《Introduction of goemechanics》.Introduction of geomechanics[M].Beijing:Geological PublishingHouse,1979:1～196.
[11]苗培实,周显强.全球构造体系图(1∶2500万)说明书[M].北京:地震出版社,2010:1～43.MIAO Pei-shi,ZHOU Xian-qian.A summary of the explanatory notes to the global tectonic system map on(1∶25000000)[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2010:1～43.
[12]徐道一.21世纪初全球巨灾群发期的认识及其预测意义[C]//中国地球物理学会,中国地震学会.中国地球物理.北京:地震出版社,2010:384～385.XU Dao-yi.Cognition and prediction significance on global huge disasters at the early of the 21st century[C]//ChinaGeophysical Society,China Seismological Society.Geophysics in China.Beijing:Seismological Publishing House,2010:384～385.
[13]XU Dao-yi,MEN Ke-pei,DENG Zhi-hui.Self-organized ordering of earthquake(M≥8)in Mainland China[J].Engineering Sciences,2010,8(4):13～17.APPLICATION OF THE ETA-TYPE TECTONIC SERIESSUGGESTED BY LI SI-GUANG TO
①摘自1974年7月翻印的《地质力学概论(修改稿)》第113页,在1973版中未提及。
②黄相宁.2006年震情形势分析.见:中国地震预测咨询委员会.地震预测咨询通讯.2006,(1):19.
③黄相宁,等.2007年天灾预测研究.见:中国地震预测咨询委员会.地震预测咨询通讯.2007,(2):61～63.
④黄相宁.汶川地震预测与当前地震形势判断.见:中国地震预测咨询委员会.地震预测咨询通讯,2008,(3):50～52.
①黄相宁.天灾年度预测报告简表及附图.见:2007年天灾预测意见汇编.中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会,2007:42～43.
②徐道一.汶川巨震、印尼巨震与歹字型构造体系的关系及其预测意义.见:中国地震局地质研究所.中国大陆构造活动背景分析及2009年度地震危险性预测研究(2009年度地震会商报告).2008:73～82.
③徐道一.21世纪初的巨震群发期及其对中国大陆地震趋势的预测意义.见:中国地震局地质研究所.中国大陆构造活动背景分析及2010年度地震危险性预测研究.2009:49～56.
①李四光.地质力学概论.地质力学研究所,1962:77.
①见:中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会.2010年天灾预测意见汇编.2010:24.
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