公路沿线遭遇滚石的风险分析——案例研究
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摘要
具有国防意义的川藏公路南线是中国内地连接西藏的主要交通要道,也是进藏公路中最危险的一条。在对该公路的典型地质灾害段(八宿—林芝段)进行工程地质调查后,由现场调查、专家经验、理论分析等综合集成对滚石发生频率进行了估计,并获得了 19 个滚石区在不同人类活动特征下遭遇滚石的年平均概率。通过遭遇滚石的概率及承灾体的易损性分析,还得到了车辆和行人经过不同滚石区时遭遇滚石而致命的风险。相应的风险评价结果表明:(1) 经过滚石区 Rm4,Rm5,Rs1,Rs4,Rs5,Rs10和 Rm7时因滚石而致命的风险水平是比较高的;(2) 由于八宿—林芝间的交通条件和人类活动特征变化不大,不同滚石区间的危险性评价在一定程度上与风险评价是一致的;(3) 考察区公路沿线滚石致命的风险远远高于发达国家或地区滑坡灾害的风险。
The south line of the Chengdu-Lhasa highway,which is of great importance for national defence, is one of the two main transportation corridors connecting Tibet with the inland of China. As the most dangerous traffic route entering Tibet,a 430 km long highway section (from Paksho to Nyingtri) with typical geological hazard is investigated for frequent rockfall events. Firstly,based on the EGMS methodology, rockfall frequency is estimated by combining all the possible knowledge of site investigation,experience and theoretical analysis for 19 rockfall zones along the highway section,and annually averaged probability of rockfall events under three situations of immobile vehicles,mobile vehicles and foot passengers,is calculated by using Bernoulli formula. Secondly,probability of deaths resulting from rockfalls in the 19 zones is obtained from the encountering probability and vulnerability analysis for highway users. The risk assessment indicates that (1) fatal risk of passing rockfall zones Rm4,Rm5,Rs1,Rs4,Rs5,Rs10 and Rm7,is higher than that in other rockfall zones;(2) there are little differences in traffic conditions and human activities along the highway section,hence the hazard assessment for the rockfall zones has a result,to some degree,consistent with risk assessment;and (3) fatal risk of rockfalls along the highway section is prominently higher than that of landslide hazards in some developed countries or regions.
The south line of the Chengdu-Lhasa highway,which is of great importance for national defence, is one of the two main transportation corridors connecting Tibet with the inland of China. As the most dangerous traffic route entering Tibet,a 430 km long highway section (from Paksho to Nyingtri) with typical geological hazard is investigated for frequent rockfall events. Firstly,based on the EGMS methodology, rockfall frequency is estimated by combining all the possible knowledge of site investigation,experience and theoretical analysis for 19 rockfall zones along the highway section,and annually averaged probability of rockfall events under three situations of immobile vehicles,mobile vehicles and foot passengers,is calculated by using Bernoulli formula. Secondly,probability of deaths resulting from rockfalls in the 19 zones is obtained from the encountering probability and vulnerability analysis for highway users. The risk assessment indicates that (1) fatal risk of passing rockfall zones Rm4,Rm5,Rs1,Rs4,Rs5,Rs10 and Rm7,is higher than that in other rockfall zones;(2) there are little differences in traffic conditions and human activities along the highway section,hence the hazard assessment for the rockfall zones has a result,to some degree,consistent with risk assessment;and (3) fatal risk of rockfalls along the highway section is prominently higher than that of landslide hazards in some developed countries or regions.
引文
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8张路青,许兵,尚彦军等.川藏公路南线八宿—林芝段滚石灾害的工程地质调查与评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(9):1551～1557
9杨志法,张路青,尚彦军.两个值得关注的工程地质力学问题[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(1):10～14
10中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,西藏自治区交通 科学研究所.川藏公路典型山地灾害研究[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社,1999
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12RobothamM E,WangH,WaltonG.Assessment of risk from rockfall active and abandoned quarry slopes[J].Trans.Inst.Min.Metall.(Sect.A:Min.Industry),1995,104(1):25～33
13KobayashiY,HarpE L,KagawaT.Simulation of rockfalls triggered by earthquakes[J].RockMechanics andRockEngineering,1990,23(1):1～20
14WasowskiJ,GaudioV D.Evaluating seismically induced mass movement hazard inCaramanicoTerme(Italy)[J].EngineeringGeology,2000,58(3/4):291～311
15AbbottB,BruceI,SavignyW,et al.Application of a new methodology for the management of rockfall risk along a railway[A].In:Proceedings of the8thInternationalIAEG Congress[C].Rotterdam:A.A.Balkema,1998,1201～1208
16张路青,杨志法.公路沿线遭遇滚石的风险分析——方法研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,待刊
17McClungD M.The encounter probability for mountain slope hazards[J].Can.Geotech.J.,1999,36(6):1195～1196
2RitchieA M.Evaluation of rockfall and its control[R].WashingtonD.C.:HighwayResearchRecord ofUSA,1963
3FookesP G,SweeneyM.Stabilization and control of local rock falls and degrading rock slope[J].QuarterlyJournal ofEngineeringGeology,1976,9(1):37～55
4FranklinJ A,SeniorS A.TheOntario rockfall hazard rating system[A].In:EngineeringGeology and theEnvironment[C].Rotterdam:A.A.Balkema,1997,647～656
5AbbottB,BruceI,SavignyW,et al.A methodology for the assessment of rockfall hazard and risk along linear transportation corridors[A].In:Proceedings of the8thInternationalIAEG Congress[C].Rotterdam:A.A.Balkema,1998,1195～1200
6CancelliA,CrostaG .Hazard and risk assessment in rockfall prone areas[A].In:Risk andReliability inGroundEngineering[C].London:ThomasTelford,1993,177～190
7张路青.滚石机理及滚石灾害评价研究[R].北京:中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,2003
8张路青,许兵,尚彦军等.川藏公路南线八宿—林芝段滚石灾害的工程地质调查与评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(9):1551～1557
9杨志法,张路青,尚彦军.两个值得关注的工程地质力学问题[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(1):10～14
10中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,西藏自治区交通 科学研究所.川藏公路典型山地灾害研究[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社,1999
11杨志法.系统科学在工程地质力学中的应用[A].见:中国科学院地质研究所工程地质力学开放研究实验室1992年年报[C].北京:地震出版社,1993,127～136
12RobothamM E,WangH,WaltonG.Assessment of risk from rockfall active and abandoned quarry slopes[J].Trans.Inst.Min.Metall.(Sect.A:Min.Industry),1995,104(1):25～33
13KobayashiY,HarpE L,KagawaT.Simulation of rockfalls triggered by earthquakes[J].RockMechanics andRockEngineering,1990,23(1):1～20
14WasowskiJ,GaudioV D.Evaluating seismically induced mass movement hazard inCaramanicoTerme(Italy)[J].EngineeringGeology,2000,58(3/4):291～311
15AbbottB,BruceI,SavignyW,et al.Application of a new methodology for the management of rockfall risk along a railway[A].In:Proceedings of the8thInternationalIAEG Congress[C].Rotterdam:A.A.Balkema,1998,1201～1208
16张路青,杨志法.公路沿线遭遇滚石的风险分析——方法研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,待刊
17McClungD M.The encounter probability for mountain slope hazards[J].Can.Geotech.J.,1999,36(6):1195～1196
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