地震预测预警等级风险评估与分区分级发布方案的研究

英文篇名：Research on Risk Assessment of Grade of Earthquake Prediction and Early Warning and Scheme of Regional Release at Different Levels
中文刊名：灾害学
英文刊名：Journal of Catastrophology
作者：杨马陵 ; 沈繁銮 ; 陈大庆 ; 曾春梅
英文作者：Yang Maling1 ; Shen Fanluan2 ; Chen Daqing1 and Zeng Chunmei2 ( 1. Earthquake Administration of Guangdong Province ; Guangzhou 510070 ; China ; 2. Earthquake Administration of Hainan Province ; Haikou 570203 ; China)
中文关键词：地震 ; 预测预警等级 ; 风险评估 ; 分区分级 ; 发布方案
英文关键词：earthquake ; grade of earthquake prediction and early warning ; risk assessment ; regionalization and grading ; scheme of release
出版日期：2010-10-20
机构：广东省地震局;海南省地震局;
年：2010
期：04
出版单位：灾害学

摘要

从地震预测预警的思路和要达到的减灾目的出发,提出了发布预测预警的基本原则,并根据地震灾害的特点,给出了地震预测预警等级的划分。结合我国地震预报、震灾预防等方面的理论与实践,提出了预测预警等级的风险评估方法和分区分级发布方案。以地震实例对风险评估、分区分级发布方案进行了案例分析和检验。
From the idea of earthquake prediction and early warning for purpose of disaster reduction,basic principles of release of earthquake prediction and early warning are put forward. In accordance with the characteristics of earthquake disaster,grade classification of earthquake prediction and early warning is given. The risk assessment of grade of earthquake prediction and early warning and scheme of regional release at different levels are put forward in the light of the theory and practice of earthquake forecast and disaster prevention in China. Finally,the risk assessment of earthquake prediction and early warning and scheme of regional release at different levels are analyzed and tested by use of some cases of earthquake forecast.

引文

[1]陈顒,陈运泰,张国民,等.“十一五”期间中国重大地震灾害预测预警和防治对策[J].灾害学,2005,20(1):1-14.
    [2]张晓东,张国民.关于地震预警的思考[J].国际地震动态,2004(6):4246.
    [3]杨马陵,沈繁銮,王正尚.预警等级预报——一种新的地震预报发布形式和对策的思考[J].国际地震动态,2004(8):112.
    [4]朱煌武.突发性地震灾害危机的预警和应急管理机制[J].灾害学,2004,19(1):76-80.
    [5]张晓东,蒋海昆,黎明晓.地震预测与预警探讨[J].中国地震,2008,24(1):67-76.
    [6]杨马陵,沈繁銮,陈大庆,等.基于互联网的地震预警问题的社会调查与分析[J].灾害学,2009,24(3):33-38.
    [7]高庆华,张业成,王伟锞,等.论仿真应急系统工程[J].灾害学,2009,24(1):127-132.
    [8]陈顒,刘杰,陈棋福,等.地震危险性分析和震害预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1999:60-97.