汶川地震触发崩滑地质灾害空间分布及影响因素
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摘要
通过遥感解译和实地考察,获取了2008年汶川地震触发崩滑的空间分布,利用GIS空间分析和Lo-gistic回归,分析崩滑的空间分布特征及其影响因素,建立了地震触发崩滑与其影响因素之间的回归方程。结果表明,(1)研究区共有5 154个崩滑群,覆盖总面积1 139 km2;(2)崩滑沿北川—映秀发震断层的两侧(断层上盘区占90%),呈北东向宽度不一的条带状分布;(3)Ⅺ和Ⅹ烈度区崩滑面积占区域面积的73.2%,Ⅷ度及以下烈度区崩滑面积比例较小;(4)崩滑发育及空间分布不仅受控于发震断层的活动,断层上下盘效应、地形放大效应等也是其重要影响因素。崩滑与其影响因子的回归方程表明:(1)到北川—映秀发震断层距离因子和到震中距离因子的偏回归系数远大于其他因子的偏回归系数,北川—映秀断层发震活动是控制崩滑空间分布的主导因子;(2)岩性软硬程度对崩滑空间分布的影响不显著;(3)地形坡度、高程、坡度变率、多年累积降雨、人工修路及植被覆盖对崩滑的发育产生影响。地形高程因子对崩滑空间分布的影响大于坡度、坡度变率因子的影响。人工道路、多年降雨及植被覆盖对地震崩滑的影响程度依次降低。
Landslide triggered by Wenchuan earthquake was interpreted based on multi-source remote sensing data.A logistic regression model was built between the landslide distribution and the control factors of the landslide.The number of landslide area interpreted was 5145,which covered a total area of 1139 km2.By using spatial analysis technology,it is found that(1) there are two types of distribution patterns existing in the landslide,one is a linear distribution along seismogenic fault and another is cluster-like around epicenter of Wenchuan earthquake;that(2) in the Ⅹ and Ⅺ degree seismic intensity zones,there are 73.2% landslide area and in the other region with Ⅷ degree or Less seismic intensity,there are few landslides;that(3) the distribution of landslide was not only controlled by seismogenic fault rupture,but also affected by the topographic amplification and fault's upper and lower plate;there is 90% landslide area located in the upper plate of seismogenic fault.Furthermore,the logistic regression model indicated that(1) the seismogenic fault was the dominant factors controlling landslide distribution and the model's partial regression coefficient of the factor of distance to Beichuan-Yingxiu fault was larger than that of any other factors in the logistic regression model;that(2) the factors of rock hardness are not significant,which indicated that rock hardness did not affect the distribution of landslide triggered by earthquake in our study area;that(3) in our model,the factors of elevation,terrain slope,slope change rate,the accumulated rainfall,human activity and the vegetation coverage all affect the landslide spatial distribution.
Landslide triggered by Wenchuan earthquake was interpreted based on multi-source remote sensing data.A logistic regression model was built between the landslide distribution and the control factors of the landslide.The number of landslide area interpreted was 5145,which covered a total area of 1139 km2.By using spatial analysis technology,it is found that(1) there are two types of distribution patterns existing in the landslide,one is a linear distribution along seismogenic fault and another is cluster-like around epicenter of Wenchuan earthquake;that(2) in the Ⅹ and Ⅺ degree seismic intensity zones,there are 73.2% landslide area and in the other region with Ⅷ degree or Less seismic intensity,there are few landslides;that(3) the distribution of landslide was not only controlled by seismogenic fault rupture,but also affected by the topographic amplification and fault's upper and lower plate;there is 90% landslide area located in the upper plate of seismogenic fault.Furthermore,the logistic regression model indicated that(1) the seismogenic fault was the dominant factors controlling landslide distribution and the model's partial regression coefficient of the factor of distance to Beichuan-Yingxiu fault was larger than that of any other factors in the logistic regression model;that(2) the factors of rock hardness are not significant,which indicated that rock hardness did not affect the distribution of landslide triggered by earthquake in our study area;that(3) in our model,the factors of elevation,terrain slope,slope change rate,the accumulated rainfall,human activity and the vegetation coverage all affect the landslide spatial distribution.
引文
[1]Wang Z H,Xu Q D,Xu B,et al.Emergency aero-photosurvey after the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Science inChina:Series E,2009,39(7):1304-1311(in Chinese).
[2]Tong L Q.Emergency remote sensinginvestigation of barrierlakes at the quake at the quake center area caused by“5.12”Wenchuan Strong Earthquake[J].Remote Sensing For Land&Resources,2008(3):61-64(in Chinese).
[3]Qi S W,Xu Q,Liu C L,et al.Slopeinstabilitiesinthe seve-rest disaster areas of 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journalof Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):39-49(in Chinese).
[4]Xu X L,Jiang D,Zhuang D F,et al.Assessment about thei mpact of Wenchuan Earthquake on ecological environment[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(12):5989-5908(in Chi-nese).
[5]Keefer D K.Investigating landslides caused by earthquakes:A historical reviews[J].Surveys in Geophysics,2002,23:473-510.
[6]Xu Q,Huang R Q.Kinetics characteristics of large landslidetriggered by May 12th Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal ofEngineering Geology,2008,16(6):721-729(in Chinese).
[7]Yin Y P.Researches on the geo-hazards triggered by Wen-chuan Earthquake,Sichuan[J].Journal of Engineering Geol-ogy,2008,16(4):7-12(in Chinese).
[8]Yin Y P.Features of landslides triggered by the WenchuanEarthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):29-38(in Chinese).
[9]Huang R Q,Pei X J,Li T B.Basic characteristics and for-mation mechanism of the largest scale landslide at Daguang-bao occurred duringthe Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal ofEngineering Geology,2008,16(6):730-741(in Chinese).
[10]Huang R Q,Li WL.Research on development and distribu-tion rules of geohazards induced by Wenchuan Earthquake on12th May,2008[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,2008,27(12):2585-2592(in Chinese).
[11]Huang R Q,Li WL.Fault effect analysis of geo-hazardtrig-gered by Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of EngineeringGeology,2009,17(1):19-28(in Chinese).
[12]Wu S R,Shi J S,Yao X,et al.Analysis and evaluation ofgeohazard intensity of the Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Geological bulletin of China,2008,27(11):1900-1906(in Chinese).
[13]Yao X,Xu C,Dai F C,et al.Contribution of stratalithologyand slope gradient to landslides triggered by WenchuanMs8Earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Geological Bulletin of Chi-na,2009,28(8):1156-1162(in Chinese).
[14]Xu C,Dai F C,Chen J,et al.Identification and analysis ofsecondary geological hazards triggered by a magnitude 8.0Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2009,13(4):754-762(in Chinese).
[15]Su F H,Liu HJ,Han YS.The extraction of mountain haz-ardinduced by Wenchuan Earthquake and analysis of its dis-tributing characteristic[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2008,12(6):956-963(in Chinese).
[16]Zhang Y S,Lei WZ,Shi J S,et al.General characteristicsof 5.12 earthquake-induced geohazards in Sichuan[J].Jour-nal of Geomechanics,2008,14(2):109-116(in Chinese).
[17]Wang W D,Zhong S.The application of GIS-based logisticregression for geological hazards zonation[J].GeotechnicalInvestigation&Surveying,2009,11:5-10(in Chinese).
[18]Zeng L Y,Wang J,Wang H Y.Analysis and si mulation ofcultivated land conversion and distribution in Beijing moun-tainous areas based on GIS and logistic regression model[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2009,45(1):165-170(in Chinese).
[19]Jiang G H,Zhang F R,Chen J W,et al.Analysis of thedriving forces of change of rural residential areas in Beijingmountainous areas based on logistic regression model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineer-ing,2007,23(5):81-87(in Chinese).
[20]Li X P,Tang H M.Application of GIS-based grouped datalogistic model in evaluation of slope stability[J].Journal ofJilin University:Earth Science Edition,2005,35(3):361-365(in Chinese).
[21]Narumalani S,Jensen J R,Althausen J D,et al.Aquaticmacrophyte modeling using GIS and multiple logistic regres-sion[J].Photogrammetric Engineering&Remote Sensing,1997,63(1):41-49.
[22]Gorsevski P V,Gessler P,Foltz R B,et al.Spatial predic-tion of landslide hazard using logistic regression and ROC a-nalysis[J].Transactions in GIS,2006,10(3):395-415.
[23]Ohl macher C G,Davis C J.Using multiple regression andGIS technology to predict landslide hazard in Northeast Kan-sas,USA[J].Engineering Geology,2003,69:331-343.
[24]Du WX,Huang XJ.Regional difference andinfluencingfac-tors of farm households willingness of rural land transmis-sion:Acase study of Shanghai,Nanjing,Taizhou and Yang-zhou Cities in Yangtze-Delta Region[J].Resources Science,2005,27(6):90-95(in Chinese).
[25]Cong W Q,Pan M,Li T F,et al.Key research onlandslideand debris flow hazard zonation based on GIS[J].Earth Sci-ence Frontiers,2006,13(1):185-190(in Chinese).
[26]Wang J C,Guo Z G.Logistic Regression Models:Methodsand Application[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001(in Chinese).
[1]王治华,徐起德,徐斌,等.5.12汶川地震航空遥感应急调查灾害遥感初步调查[J].中国科学:E辑,2009,39(7):1304-1311.
[2]童立强.“5.12”汶川大地震极重灾区地震堰塞湖应急遥感调查[J].国土资源遥感,2008(3):61-64.
[3]祁生文,许强,刘春玲,等.汶川地震极重灾区地质背景及次生斜坡灾害空间发育规律[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):39-49.
[4]徐新良,江东,庄大方,等.汶川地震灾害核心区生态环境影响评估[J].生态学报,2008,28(12):5989-5908.
[6]许强,黄润秋.5.12汶川大地震诱发大型崩滑灾害动力特征初探[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):721-729.
[7]殷跃平.汶川八级地震地质灾害研究[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(4):7-12.
[8]殷跃平.汶川八级地震滑坡特征分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):29-38.
[9]黄润秋,裴向军,李天斌.汶川地震触发大光包巨型滑坡基本特征及形成机理分析[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):730-741.
[10]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.
[11]黄润秋,李为乐.汶川大地震触发地质灾害的断层效应分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):19-28.
[12]吴树仁,石菊松,姚鑫,等.四川汶川地震地质灾害活动强度分析评价[J].地质通报,2008,27(11):1900-1906.
[13]姚鑫,许冲,戴福初,等.四川汶川Ms8级地震引发的滑坡与地层岩性、坡度的相关性[J].地质通报,2009,28(8):1156-1162.
[14]许冲,戴福初,陈剑,等.汶川Ms8.0地震重灾区次生地质灾害遥感精细解译[J].遥感学报,2009,13(4):754-762.
[15]苏凤环,刘洪江,韩用顺.汶川地震山地灾害遥感快速提取及其分布特点分析[J].遥感学报,2008,12(6):956-963.
[16]张永双,雷伟志,石菊松,等.四川5.12地震次生地质灾害的基本特征初析[J].地质力学学报,2008,14(2):109-116.
[17]王卫东,钟晟.基于GIS的Logistic回归模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].工程勘察,2009,11:5-10.
[18]曾凌云,王钧,王红亚.基于GIS和Logistic回归模型的北京山区耕地变化分析与模拟[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2009,45(1):165-170.
[19]姜广辉,张凤荣,陈军伟,等.基于Logistic回归模型的北京山区农村居民点变化的驱动力分析[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(5):81-87.
[20]李雪平,唐辉明.基于GIS的分组数据Logistic模型在斜坡稳定性评价中的应用[J].吉林大学学报:地球科学版,2005,35(3):361-365.
[24]杜文星,黄贤金.区域农户农地流转意愿差异及其驱动力研究:以上海市、南京市、泰州市、扬州市农户调查为例[J].资源科学,2005,27(6):90-95.
[25]丛威青,潘懋,李铁锋,等.基于GIS的滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划关键问题研究[J].地学前缘,2006,13(1):185-190.
[26]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型:方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.
[2]Tong L Q.Emergency remote sensinginvestigation of barrierlakes at the quake at the quake center area caused by“5.12”Wenchuan Strong Earthquake[J].Remote Sensing For Land&Resources,2008(3):61-64(in Chinese).
[3]Qi S W,Xu Q,Liu C L,et al.Slopeinstabilitiesinthe seve-rest disaster areas of 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journalof Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):39-49(in Chinese).
[4]Xu X L,Jiang D,Zhuang D F,et al.Assessment about thei mpact of Wenchuan Earthquake on ecological environment[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(12):5989-5908(in Chi-nese).
[5]Keefer D K.Investigating landslides caused by earthquakes:A historical reviews[J].Surveys in Geophysics,2002,23:473-510.
[6]Xu Q,Huang R Q.Kinetics characteristics of large landslidetriggered by May 12th Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal ofEngineering Geology,2008,16(6):721-729(in Chinese).
[7]Yin Y P.Researches on the geo-hazards triggered by Wen-chuan Earthquake,Sichuan[J].Journal of Engineering Geol-ogy,2008,16(4):7-12(in Chinese).
[8]Yin Y P.Features of landslides triggered by the WenchuanEarthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):29-38(in Chinese).
[9]Huang R Q,Pei X J,Li T B.Basic characteristics and for-mation mechanism of the largest scale landslide at Daguang-bao occurred duringthe Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal ofEngineering Geology,2008,16(6):730-741(in Chinese).
[10]Huang R Q,Li WL.Research on development and distribu-tion rules of geohazards induced by Wenchuan Earthquake on12th May,2008[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,2008,27(12):2585-2592(in Chinese).
[11]Huang R Q,Li WL.Fault effect analysis of geo-hazardtrig-gered by Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of EngineeringGeology,2009,17(1):19-28(in Chinese).
[12]Wu S R,Shi J S,Yao X,et al.Analysis and evaluation ofgeohazard intensity of the Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Geological bulletin of China,2008,27(11):1900-1906(in Chinese).
[13]Yao X,Xu C,Dai F C,et al.Contribution of stratalithologyand slope gradient to landslides triggered by WenchuanMs8Earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Geological Bulletin of Chi-na,2009,28(8):1156-1162(in Chinese).
[14]Xu C,Dai F C,Chen J,et al.Identification and analysis ofsecondary geological hazards triggered by a magnitude 8.0Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2009,13(4):754-762(in Chinese).
[15]Su F H,Liu HJ,Han YS.The extraction of mountain haz-ardinduced by Wenchuan Earthquake and analysis of its dis-tributing characteristic[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,2008,12(6):956-963(in Chinese).
[16]Zhang Y S,Lei WZ,Shi J S,et al.General characteristicsof 5.12 earthquake-induced geohazards in Sichuan[J].Jour-nal of Geomechanics,2008,14(2):109-116(in Chinese).
[17]Wang W D,Zhong S.The application of GIS-based logisticregression for geological hazards zonation[J].GeotechnicalInvestigation&Surveying,2009,11:5-10(in Chinese).
[18]Zeng L Y,Wang J,Wang H Y.Analysis and si mulation ofcultivated land conversion and distribution in Beijing moun-tainous areas based on GIS and logistic regression model[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2009,45(1):165-170(in Chinese).
[19]Jiang G H,Zhang F R,Chen J W,et al.Analysis of thedriving forces of change of rural residential areas in Beijingmountainous areas based on logistic regression model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineer-ing,2007,23(5):81-87(in Chinese).
[20]Li X P,Tang H M.Application of GIS-based grouped datalogistic model in evaluation of slope stability[J].Journal ofJilin University:Earth Science Edition,2005,35(3):361-365(in Chinese).
[21]Narumalani S,Jensen J R,Althausen J D,et al.Aquaticmacrophyte modeling using GIS and multiple logistic regres-sion[J].Photogrammetric Engineering&Remote Sensing,1997,63(1):41-49.
[22]Gorsevski P V,Gessler P,Foltz R B,et al.Spatial predic-tion of landslide hazard using logistic regression and ROC a-nalysis[J].Transactions in GIS,2006,10(3):395-415.
[23]Ohl macher C G,Davis C J.Using multiple regression andGIS technology to predict landslide hazard in Northeast Kan-sas,USA[J].Engineering Geology,2003,69:331-343.
[24]Du WX,Huang XJ.Regional difference andinfluencingfac-tors of farm households willingness of rural land transmis-sion:Acase study of Shanghai,Nanjing,Taizhou and Yang-zhou Cities in Yangtze-Delta Region[J].Resources Science,2005,27(6):90-95(in Chinese).
[25]Cong W Q,Pan M,Li T F,et al.Key research onlandslideand debris flow hazard zonation based on GIS[J].Earth Sci-ence Frontiers,2006,13(1):185-190(in Chinese).
[26]Wang J C,Guo Z G.Logistic Regression Models:Methodsand Application[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001(in Chinese).
[1]王治华,徐起德,徐斌,等.5.12汶川地震航空遥感应急调查灾害遥感初步调查[J].中国科学:E辑,2009,39(7):1304-1311.
[2]童立强.“5.12”汶川大地震极重灾区地震堰塞湖应急遥感调查[J].国土资源遥感,2008(3):61-64.
[3]祁生文,许强,刘春玲,等.汶川地震极重灾区地质背景及次生斜坡灾害空间发育规律[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):39-49.
[4]徐新良,江东,庄大方,等.汶川地震灾害核心区生态环境影响评估[J].生态学报,2008,28(12):5989-5908.
[6]许强,黄润秋.5.12汶川大地震诱发大型崩滑灾害动力特征初探[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):721-729.
[7]殷跃平.汶川八级地震地质灾害研究[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(4):7-12.
[8]殷跃平.汶川八级地震滑坡特征分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):29-38.
[9]黄润秋,裴向军,李天斌.汶川地震触发大光包巨型滑坡基本特征及形成机理分析[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):730-741.
[10]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.
[11]黄润秋,李为乐.汶川大地震触发地质灾害的断层效应分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):19-28.
[12]吴树仁,石菊松,姚鑫,等.四川汶川地震地质灾害活动强度分析评价[J].地质通报,2008,27(11):1900-1906.
[13]姚鑫,许冲,戴福初,等.四川汶川Ms8级地震引发的滑坡与地层岩性、坡度的相关性[J].地质通报,2009,28(8):1156-1162.
[14]许冲,戴福初,陈剑,等.汶川Ms8.0地震重灾区次生地质灾害遥感精细解译[J].遥感学报,2009,13(4):754-762.
[15]苏凤环,刘洪江,韩用顺.汶川地震山地灾害遥感快速提取及其分布特点分析[J].遥感学报,2008,12(6):956-963.
[16]张永双,雷伟志,石菊松,等.四川5.12地震次生地质灾害的基本特征初析[J].地质力学学报,2008,14(2):109-116.
[17]王卫东,钟晟.基于GIS的Logistic回归模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].工程勘察,2009,11:5-10.
[18]曾凌云,王钧,王红亚.基于GIS和Logistic回归模型的北京山区耕地变化分析与模拟[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2009,45(1):165-170.
[19]姜广辉,张凤荣,陈军伟,等.基于Logistic回归模型的北京山区农村居民点变化的驱动力分析[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(5):81-87.
[20]李雪平,唐辉明.基于GIS的分组数据Logistic模型在斜坡稳定性评价中的应用[J].吉林大学学报:地球科学版,2005,35(3):361-365.
[24]杜文星,黄贤金.区域农户农地流转意愿差异及其驱动力研究:以上海市、南京市、泰州市、扬州市农户调查为例[J].资源科学,2005,27(6):90-95.
[25]丛威青,潘懋,李铁锋,等.基于GIS的滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性区划关键问题研究[J].地学前缘,2006,13(1):185-190.
[26]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型:方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.
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