地壳介质破裂的尺度理论在研究山丹—民乐6.1级地震的地震学前兆特征中的应用
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摘要
介绍了Allegre的地壳介质破裂的尺度理论和根据该理论建立一种预测地震发生时间方法的可能性.作为震例研究了甘肃山丹—民乐6.1级地震的地震学前兆(地震空间相关长度和尾波Qc值)特征.结果表明,地震空间相关长度和尾波Qc值在震前都呈增长趋势,用幂次率关系拟合了这两种参数的上升变化形态.这为利用地震空间相关长度和尾波Q值的监测资料建立一种预测地震发生时间的方法和找到预测指标打下了基础.
In the paper, we introduce Allegre′s scaling-rule theory of rock fracture and the probability to develop a method for predicting earthquake occurrence time on its basis. As an example, we study the characteristics of seismological precursors (seismic spatial correlation length and coda Q_c) associated with the earthquake (M_S=6.1) occurred in Shandan-Minle, Gansu Province. The results show an increasing trend of seismic spatial correlation length and coda Q_c before the earthquake. And a power exponent relation is used to fit the increasing variation form of these two parameters. The study has provided a basis for creating a method and finding indexes to predict the earthquake occurrence time by using the monitored seismic spatial correlation length and coda Q_c.
In the paper, we introduce Allegre′s scaling-rule theory of rock fracture and the probability to develop a method for predicting earthquake occurrence time on its basis. As an example, we study the characteristics of seismological precursors (seismic spatial correlation length and coda Q_c) associated with the earthquake (M_S=6.1) occurred in Shandan-Minle, Gansu Province. The results show an increasing trend of seismic spatial correlation length and coda Q_c before the earthquake. And a power exponent relation is used to fit the increasing variation form of these two parameters. The study has provided a basis for creating a method and finding indexes to predict the earthquake occurrence time by using the monitored seismic spatial correlation length and coda Q_c.
引文
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蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.2004.中强地震前地震活动矩释放加速现象(AMR)的普遍性问题[J].中国地震,20(2):119~125
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2005.2004年12月26日印尼北苏门答腊以西近海MW9.0地震与地震的类临界点模型[J].地震学报,27(3):269~275
聂永安,曾健,冯德益.1995.三维尾波散射问题的理论研究[J].地震学报,17(1):83~87
秦嘉政,李宁,胡克坚.1987.1985年禄劝地震余震尾波Q值的某些研究[J].地震学报,9(3):239~252
荣代潞,李亚荣,刘旭宙.2004.甘肃及邻近地区几次中强地震前地震空间相关长度增长的研究[J].地震学报,26(5):509~515
王勤彩,郑斯华,刁桂苓,等.2004.张北地震序列的尾波Q值研究[J].防震减灾工程学报,24(1):37~40
余怀忠,尹祥础,夏蒙棼,等.2004.地震临界点理论的实验研究[J].地震学报,26(增刊):122~130
曾健,聂永安.1988.单次和多次散射对地方震尾波的作用[J].地震学报,11(1):12~13
AkiK,ChouetB.1975.Originofcodawave:source,attenuationandscatteringeffects[J].JGeophysRes,80:3322~3342
AkiK.1980.Scatteringandattenuationofshearwavesinthelithosphere[J].JGeophysRes,85:6496~6504
AllegreCJ,LeMouelJL,ProvostA.1982.Scalingrulesinrockfractureandpossibleimplicationsforearthquakepre-diction[J].Nature,297:47~49
BrehmDJ,BraileLW.1998.intermidiate-termearthquakepredictionusingprecursoryeventsintheNewMadridseismizone[J].BullSeismSocAmer,88:564~580
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BruceA,WallaceD.1989.Criticalpointphenomena:universalphysicsatlargelengthscales[A].In:DawisPed.NewPhysics[C].NewYork:CambridgeUnivPress,236~267
BufeCG,VarnesDJ.1993.PredictivemodelingoftheseismiccycleofthegreaterSanFranciscoBayRegion[J].JGeo-physRes,98:9871~9883
DaintyAM.1981.AscatteringmodeltoexplainseismicQobservationsinthelithospherebetween1and30Hz[J].Geo-physResLett,8:1126~1128
FrohlichC,DavisD.1990.Single-linkclusteranalysisasamethodtoevaluatespatialandtemporalpropertiesofearth-quakecatalogues[J].GeophysJInt,100:19~32
JinA,AkiK.1986.TemporalchangeincodabeforetheTangshanearthquakeof1976andtheHaichengearthquakeof1975[J].JGeophysRes,91:665~673
Novelo-CasanovaDA,BergE,HsuV,etal.1985.Time-spacevariationseismicS-wavecodaattenuation(Q-1)andmagnitudedistribution(b-value)forthePetatlanearthquake[J].GeophysResLett,12:789~792
PengJY,AkiK,LeeWHK,etal.1987.TemperalchangeincodaQassociatedwith1984RoundValleyearthquakeinCalifornia[J].JGeophysRes,92:3507~3536
ZollerG,HainzlS,KurthsJ.2001.Observationofgrowingcorrelationlengthasanindicatorforcriticalpointbehaviorpriortolargeearthquakes[J].JGeophysRes,106(2):2167~2175
蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.2004.中强地震前地震活动矩释放加速现象(AMR)的普遍性问题[J].中国地震,20(2):119~125
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2005.2004年12月26日印尼北苏门答腊以西近海MW9.0地震与地震的类临界点模型[J].地震学报,27(3):269~275
聂永安,曾健,冯德益.1995.三维尾波散射问题的理论研究[J].地震学报,17(1):83~87
秦嘉政,李宁,胡克坚.1987.1985年禄劝地震余震尾波Q值的某些研究[J].地震学报,9(3):239~252
荣代潞,李亚荣,刘旭宙.2004.甘肃及邻近地区几次中强地震前地震空间相关长度增长的研究[J].地震学报,26(5):509~515
王勤彩,郑斯华,刁桂苓,等.2004.张北地震序列的尾波Q值研究[J].防震减灾工程学报,24(1):37~40
余怀忠,尹祥础,夏蒙棼,等.2004.地震临界点理论的实验研究[J].地震学报,26(增刊):122~130
曾健,聂永安.1988.单次和多次散射对地方震尾波的作用[J].地震学报,11(1):12~13
AkiK,ChouetB.1975.Originofcodawave:source,attenuationandscatteringeffects[J].JGeophysRes,80:3322~3342
AkiK.1980.Scatteringandattenuationofshearwavesinthelithosphere[J].JGeophysRes,85:6496~6504
AllegreCJ,LeMouelJL,ProvostA.1982.Scalingrulesinrockfractureandpossibleimplicationsforearthquakepre-diction[J].Nature,297:47~49
BrehmDJ,BraileLW.1998.intermidiate-termearthquakepredictionusingprecursoryeventsintheNewMadridseismizone[J].BullSeismSocAmer,88:564~580
BrehmDJ,BraileLW.1999.intermidiate-termearthquakepredictionusingthemodifiedtime-to-failuremethodinSouthernCalifornia[J].BullSeismSocAmer,89:275~293
BruceA,WallaceD.1989.Criticalpointphenomena:universalphysicsatlargelengthscales[A].In:DawisPed.NewPhysics[C].NewYork:CambridgeUnivPress,236~267
BufeCG,VarnesDJ.1993.PredictivemodelingoftheseismiccycleofthegreaterSanFranciscoBayRegion[J].JGeo-physRes,98:9871~9883
DaintyAM.1981.AscatteringmodeltoexplainseismicQobservationsinthelithospherebetween1and30Hz[J].Geo-physResLett,8:1126~1128
FrohlichC,DavisD.1990.Single-linkclusteranalysisasamethodtoevaluatespatialandtemporalpropertiesofearth-quakecatalogues[J].GeophysJInt,100:19~32
JinA,AkiK.1986.TemporalchangeincodabeforetheTangshanearthquakeof1976andtheHaichengearthquakeof1975[J].JGeophysRes,91:665~673
Novelo-CasanovaDA,BergE,HsuV,etal.1985.Time-spacevariationseismicS-wavecodaattenuation(Q-1)andmagnitudedistribution(b-value)forthePetatlanearthquake[J].GeophysResLett,12:789~792
PengJY,AkiK,LeeWHK,etal.1987.TemperalchangeincodaQassociatedwith1984RoundValleyearthquakeinCalifornia[J].JGeophysRes,92:3507~3536
ZollerG,HainzlS,KurthsJ.2001.Observationofgrowingcorrelationlengthasanindicatorforcriticalpointbehaviorpriortolargeearthquakes[J].JGeophysRes,106(2):2167~2175
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