“区域-时间-长度”算法中特征参数的估计及应用
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摘要
根据地震前震源及周围地区出现的空区的时空特征,提出了一种估计"区域-时间-长度"算法中特征参数(特征距离和特征时间)的方法,并介绍了2006年一些学者提出的用相关系数估计特征参数的方法.用这两种方法研究了近年来发生在中国大陆西北和西南地区的4次中强地震前的地震活动异常特征.结果表明,本文提出的估计特征参数的方法是一种具有物理意义、使用简单的方法,对中国大陆西北和西南地区的4次中强震的应用都有较好的效果.
On the basis of gap's temporal-spatial characteristics in and around source area before an earthquake, we propose a method to estimate characteristic parameters (characteristic distance and time) in the region-time-length (RTL) algorithm and introduce the method of correlation coefficient developed by some authors in 2006 to determine the characteristic parameters. The anomalous seismic activities before four moderately strong earthquakes occurred in the northwestern and southwestern China in recent years are studied by the two methods. The results show that the method to estimate characteristic parameters advanced in this paper is a simple one, which possesses a physical meaning and is well applicable to the four moderately strong earthquakes studied.
On the basis of gap's temporal-spatial characteristics in and around source area before an earthquake, we propose a method to estimate characteristic parameters (characteristic distance and time) in the region-time-length (RTL) algorithm and introduce the method of correlation coefficient developed by some authors in 2006 to determine the characteristic parameters. The anomalous seismic activities before four moderately strong earthquakes occurred in the northwestern and southwestern China in recent years are studied by the two methods. The results show that the method to estimate characteristic parameters advanced in this paper is a simple one, which possesses a physical meaning and is well applicable to the four moderately strong earthquakes studied.
引文
郭增建,秦保燕.1991.地震成因和地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社:177-178.
韩渭宾,席敦礼.1984.四川地区强震前弱震空区的变化特征[J].地震学报,6(1):8-21.
蒋海昆,侯海峰,周焕鹏,等.2004.“区域-时间-长度算法”及其在华北中强地震中短期前兆特征研究中的应用[J].地震学报,26(2):151-161.
刘虹,苏有锦.2006.区域-时间-长度算法在云南地区的应用研究[J].地震研究,29(1):25-29.
任雪梅.2005.西北地区东部5级以上地震余震删除研究[D].[学位论文].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所:17-22.
Chen Chienchih,Wu Yixuan.2006.An i mproved region-ti me-length algorithm applied to the1999Chi-Chi,Tai wanearthquake[J].Geophys J Int,166:1144-1147.
Giovambattista D R,Tyupkin Y S.2000.Spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity before the Umbria-Marche Sep-tember26,1997earthquakes[J].J Seismology,4:589-598.
Hainzl S,Zoller G,Kurths J.1999.Si milar power laws for foreshock and aftershock sequences in a spring-block modelfor earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,104:7243-7254.
Hainzl S,Zoller G,Kurths J.2000.Seismic quiescence as anindicator for large earthquakesin a systemof self-organizedcriticality[J].Geophys Res Lett,27:597-600.
Huang Q,Sobolev G A,Nagao T,2001.Characteristics of the seismic quiescence and activation patterns before theM=7.2Kobe earthquake,January17,1995[J].Tectonophysics,337:99-116.
Huang Q,Oncel A O,Sobolev G A.2002.Precursory seismicity changes associated with theMW=7.41999August17Izmit(Turkey)earthquake[J].Geophys J Int,151:235-242.
Mogi K.1979.Two Kinds of seismic gap[J].Pure Appl Geophys,117(6):1176-1186.
Sobolev G A,Tyupkin Y S.1997.Low-seismicity precursors of large earthquakes in Kamchatka[J].Volc Seism,18:433-446.
韩渭宾,席敦礼.1984.四川地区强震前弱震空区的变化特征[J].地震学报,6(1):8-21.
蒋海昆,侯海峰,周焕鹏,等.2004.“区域-时间-长度算法”及其在华北中强地震中短期前兆特征研究中的应用[J].地震学报,26(2):151-161.
刘虹,苏有锦.2006.区域-时间-长度算法在云南地区的应用研究[J].地震研究,29(1):25-29.
任雪梅.2005.西北地区东部5级以上地震余震删除研究[D].[学位论文].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所:17-22.
Chen Chienchih,Wu Yixuan.2006.An i mproved region-ti me-length algorithm applied to the1999Chi-Chi,Tai wanearthquake[J].Geophys J Int,166:1144-1147.
Giovambattista D R,Tyupkin Y S.2000.Spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity before the Umbria-Marche Sep-tember26,1997earthquakes[J].J Seismology,4:589-598.
Hainzl S,Zoller G,Kurths J.1999.Si milar power laws for foreshock and aftershock sequences in a spring-block modelfor earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,104:7243-7254.
Hainzl S,Zoller G,Kurths J.2000.Seismic quiescence as anindicator for large earthquakesin a systemof self-organizedcriticality[J].Geophys Res Lett,27:597-600.
Huang Q,Sobolev G A,Nagao T,2001.Characteristics of the seismic quiescence and activation patterns before theM=7.2Kobe earthquake,January17,1995[J].Tectonophysics,337:99-116.
Huang Q,Oncel A O,Sobolev G A.2002.Precursory seismicity changes associated with theMW=7.41999August17Izmit(Turkey)earthquake[J].Geophys J Int,151:235-242.
Mogi K.1979.Two Kinds of seismic gap[J].Pure Appl Geophys,117(6):1176-1186.
Sobolev G A,Tyupkin Y S.1997.Low-seismicity precursors of large earthquakes in Kamchatka[J].Volc Seism,18:433-446.
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