基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型
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摘要
采用了分布式地震活动性模型.该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时简化了地震危险性概率分析方法.根据破坏性地震目录建立了3个地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了华北区域内的a值分布特征,使用3种典型的衰减模型,分别计算了50年内超越概率10%,5%和2%的地震动峰值加速度分布.其分析结果显示了峰值加速度分布特征与我国第四代区划图大体一致,特定地震活动区(太原、石家庄等地区)的峰值加速度略高于第四代区划图的结果,而这种峰值加速度分布特征与该地区较高的地震活动性特征是一致的.概率危险性曲线结果表明,唐山、太原和北京等地区的潜在地震危险性比华北区域内其它城市高.
In this paper,we have proposed an alternative seismic hazard modeling by using distributed seismicites.The distributed seismicity model does not need delineation of seismic source zones,and simplify the methdology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.Based on the devastating earthquake catalogue,we established three seismicity model,derived the distribution of a-value in northern China by using Gaussian smoothing function,and calculated peak ground acceleration distributions for this area with 2%,5% and 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period by using three attenuation models,respectively.In general,the peak ground motion distribution patterns are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China,but in some specific seismic zones which include Shanxi Province and Shijiazhuan areas,our results indicated a little bit higher peak ground motions and zonation characters which are in agreement with seismicity distribution patterns in these areas.The hazard curves have been developed for Beijing,Tianjin,Taiyuan,Tangshan,and Jinan,the metropolitan cities in the northern China.The results showed that Tangshan,Taiyuan,Beijing has a higher seismic hazard than that of other cities mentioned above.
In this paper,we have proposed an alternative seismic hazard modeling by using distributed seismicites.The distributed seismicity model does not need delineation of seismic source zones,and simplify the methdology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.Based on the devastating earthquake catalogue,we established three seismicity model,derived the distribution of a-value in northern China by using Gaussian smoothing function,and calculated peak ground acceleration distributions for this area with 2%,5% and 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period by using three attenuation models,respectively.In general,the peak ground motion distribution patterns are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China,but in some specific seismic zones which include Shanxi Province and Shijiazhuan areas,our results indicated a little bit higher peak ground motions and zonation characters which are in agreement with seismicity distribution patterns in these areas.The hazard curves have been developed for Beijing,Tianjin,Taiyuan,Tangshan,and Jinan,the metropolitan cities in the northern China.The results showed that Tangshan,Taiyuan,Beijing has a higher seismic hazard than that of other cities mentioned above.
引文
[1]中国破坏性地震目录(公元前780年—公元2006年).2006.中国地震局地球物理研究所工程地震学与城市减灾研究室.
丁国瑜.1986.我国地震地质研究近况[M]∥张存德编.中国地震年鉴(19s4).北京:地震出版社:44--48.
胡聿贤主编.2001.中国地震动参数区划图宣贯教材(GB18306-2001)[S].北京:中国标准出版社:90--94.
胡聿贤.1988.地震工程学[M].北京:地震出版社:453--456.
黄玮琼,时振梁,曹学锋.1989.b值统计中的影响因素及危险性分析中b值的选取[J].地震学报,11(4):351--361.
徐锡伟,吴卫民,张先康.2002.首都圈地区地壳最新构造变动与地震[M].北京:科学出版社:216--234.
胥广银,金严.1998.弱震和中等强度地震活动区地震活动性模型研究[C]∥中国地震区划学术讨论会论文集.北京:地震出版社:43--49.
俞言祥.2002.长周期地震动衰减关系研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所:110--119.
Al-Tarazi E,Sandvol E.2007.Alternative models of seismic hazard evaluation alongthe Jordan-Dead Sea Transform[J].Earthquake Spectra,23(1):1--19.
Atkinson G M,Boore D M.1995.Ground motion relations for eastern North America[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,85(1):17--30.
Bommer J J,Abrahamson N A,Strasser F O,Pecker A,Bard P Y,Bungum H,Cotton F,Fah D,Sabetta F,Scherbaum F,Studer J.2004.The challenge of defining upper bounds on earthquake ground motions[J].SeismResLett,75(1):82--95.
Boore D M,Joyner WB,Fumal T E.1997.Equations for estimating horizontal response spectra and peak accelerationfrom western North America earthquakes:Asummary of recent work[J].SeismRes Lett,68(1):128--153.
Campbell K W.2003.Prediction of strong ground motion usingthe hybrid empirical method andits useinthe developmentof ground-motion(attenuation)relations in Eastern North America[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,93(3):1012--1033.
Cornell C A.1968.Engineering seismic analysis[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,58(5):1583--1606.
Cramer C H.2001.The new Madrid seismic zone:Capturing variability in seismic hazard analysis[J].Seism Res Lett,72(6):664--672.
Foteva G,Ilieva M,Botev E.2006.Spatially smoothed seismicity modeling of seismic hazardin the Sofia area[DB/OL].71-82[2007-06-12].http:∥www.phys.uni-sofia.bg/annual/arch/99/full/99-09-full.pdf.
Frankel A.1995.Mapping seismic hazardin the Central and Eastern United States[J].SeismRes Lett,66(4):8--21.
Frankel A,Mueller C,Barnhard T,Perkins D,Leyendecker E V,Dickman N,Hanson S,Hopper M.1996.Nationalseismic hazard maps:Documentation June1996[R]∥U.S.Geol Surv Open-File Rept96-532.Denver:U.S.GeolSurv:110.
Herrmann R B.1977.Recurrence relations[J].Earthquake Notes,48(1/2):47--49.
Kramer S L.2003.Prentice-Hall International Series in Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics:GeotechnicalEarthquake Engineering[M].Singapore:Pearson Education Inc:135--138.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B S,Zabukovec B,Zupancic P.1997.Spatially smoothed seismicity modelling of seismic hazardinSlovenia[J].J Seism,1:73--85.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B S,Zupancic P.2003.Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology for distributed seis-micity[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,93(6):2502--2515.
McGuire R K,Arabasz WJ.1990.Anintroduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in geotechnical and environ-mental geophysics[J].Societyof Exploration Geophysicists,1:333--353.
Pancha A,Anderson J G,Louie J N.2007.Characterization of near-fault geology at strong-motion stationsinthe vinicityof Reno,Nevada[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,97:2096--2117.
Pelaez J A,Hamdache M,Lopez C C.2003.Seismic hazardin Northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity:Re-sults for peak ground acceleration[J].Tectonophysics,372:105--119.
Pelaez J A,Lpez C C.2002.Seismic hazard estimate at the Iberian Peninsula[J].Pure Appl Geophys,159(11/12):2699--2713.
The National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project.2007.Preliminary Documentation for the2007Update of the UnitedStates National Seismic Hazard Maps[R/OL].USGS.11--57[2007-12-20].http:∥earthquake.usgs.gov/re-search/hazmaps/products-data/2007/documentation/index.php.
Toro G W,Abrahamson N A,Schneider F J.1997.Model of strong ground motions from earthquakes in Central andEastern North America:Best estimates and uncertainties[J].SeismRes Lett,68(1):41--57.
Ward S N.2007.Methods for evaluating earthquake potential andlikelihoodin and around California[J].SeismRes Lett,78:121--133.
丁国瑜.1986.我国地震地质研究近况[M]∥张存德编.中国地震年鉴(19s4).北京:地震出版社:44--48.
胡聿贤主编.2001.中国地震动参数区划图宣贯教材(GB18306-2001)[S].北京:中国标准出版社:90--94.
胡聿贤.1988.地震工程学[M].北京:地震出版社:453--456.
黄玮琼,时振梁,曹学锋.1989.b值统计中的影响因素及危险性分析中b值的选取[J].地震学报,11(4):351--361.
徐锡伟,吴卫民,张先康.2002.首都圈地区地壳最新构造变动与地震[M].北京:科学出版社:216--234.
胥广银,金严.1998.弱震和中等强度地震活动区地震活动性模型研究[C]∥中国地震区划学术讨论会论文集.北京:地震出版社:43--49.
俞言祥.2002.长周期地震动衰减关系研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所:110--119.
Al-Tarazi E,Sandvol E.2007.Alternative models of seismic hazard evaluation alongthe Jordan-Dead Sea Transform[J].Earthquake Spectra,23(1):1--19.
Atkinson G M,Boore D M.1995.Ground motion relations for eastern North America[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,85(1):17--30.
Bommer J J,Abrahamson N A,Strasser F O,Pecker A,Bard P Y,Bungum H,Cotton F,Fah D,Sabetta F,Scherbaum F,Studer J.2004.The challenge of defining upper bounds on earthquake ground motions[J].SeismResLett,75(1):82--95.
Boore D M,Joyner WB,Fumal T E.1997.Equations for estimating horizontal response spectra and peak accelerationfrom western North America earthquakes:Asummary of recent work[J].SeismRes Lett,68(1):128--153.
Campbell K W.2003.Prediction of strong ground motion usingthe hybrid empirical method andits useinthe developmentof ground-motion(attenuation)relations in Eastern North America[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,93(3):1012--1033.
Cornell C A.1968.Engineering seismic analysis[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,58(5):1583--1606.
Cramer C H.2001.The new Madrid seismic zone:Capturing variability in seismic hazard analysis[J].Seism Res Lett,72(6):664--672.
Foteva G,Ilieva M,Botev E.2006.Spatially smoothed seismicity modeling of seismic hazardin the Sofia area[DB/OL].71-82[2007-06-12].http:∥www.phys.uni-sofia.bg/annual/arch/99/full/99-09-full.pdf.
Frankel A.1995.Mapping seismic hazardin the Central and Eastern United States[J].SeismRes Lett,66(4):8--21.
Frankel A,Mueller C,Barnhard T,Perkins D,Leyendecker E V,Dickman N,Hanson S,Hopper M.1996.Nationalseismic hazard maps:Documentation June1996[R]∥U.S.Geol Surv Open-File Rept96-532.Denver:U.S.GeolSurv:110.
Herrmann R B.1977.Recurrence relations[J].Earthquake Notes,48(1/2):47--49.
Kramer S L.2003.Prentice-Hall International Series in Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics:GeotechnicalEarthquake Engineering[M].Singapore:Pearson Education Inc:135--138.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B S,Zabukovec B,Zupancic P.1997.Spatially smoothed seismicity modelling of seismic hazardinSlovenia[J].J Seism,1:73--85.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B S,Zupancic P.2003.Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology for distributed seis-micity[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,93(6):2502--2515.
McGuire R K,Arabasz WJ.1990.Anintroduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in geotechnical and environ-mental geophysics[J].Societyof Exploration Geophysicists,1:333--353.
Pancha A,Anderson J G,Louie J N.2007.Characterization of near-fault geology at strong-motion stationsinthe vinicityof Reno,Nevada[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,97:2096--2117.
Pelaez J A,Hamdache M,Lopez C C.2003.Seismic hazardin Northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity:Re-sults for peak ground acceleration[J].Tectonophysics,372:105--119.
Pelaez J A,Lpez C C.2002.Seismic hazard estimate at the Iberian Peninsula[J].Pure Appl Geophys,159(11/12):2699--2713.
The National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project.2007.Preliminary Documentation for the2007Update of the UnitedStates National Seismic Hazard Maps[R/OL].USGS.11--57[2007-12-20].http:∥earthquake.usgs.gov/re-search/hazmaps/products-data/2007/documentation/index.php.
Toro G W,Abrahamson N A,Schneider F J.1997.Model of strong ground motions from earthquakes in Central andEastern North America:Best estimates and uncertainties[J].SeismRes Lett,68(1):41--57.
Ward S N.2007.Methods for evaluating earthquake potential andlikelihoodin and around California[J].SeismRes Lett,78:121--133.
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