形变预报模型的多层递阶分析
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摘要
针对时间序列常用递推算法建模存在的缺点,提出一种适用于预报模型参数估算的新算法,应用动态系统模型参数随机化原理,把形变模型噪声归化到形变预报模型参数上,采用多层递阶分析方法建立形变预报模型。用天马台水准资料和厦门台水平摆资料进行的实例分析表明,新算法提高了形变预报的准确度。
In view of the shortcoming that the recursion algorithm is usually used to model time series, a new algorithm suitable for the forecast model parameter’s estimatation is proposed,which naturalizes the deformation model noise to the deformation forecast model parameter based on the principle of dynamic system model parameter randomisation,and uses the multi-layer hierarchical analysis method to establish deformation forecast model. The analysis of the Tianma and Xiamen station’s data indicates that the deformation forecast precision is improved obviously.
In view of the shortcoming that the recursion algorithm is usually used to model time series, a new algorithm suitable for the forecast model parameter’s estimatation is proposed,which naturalizes the deformation model noise to the deformation forecast model parameter based on the principle of dynamic system model parameter randomisation,and uses the multi-layer hierarchical analysis method to establish deformation forecast model. The analysis of the Tianma and Xiamen station’s data indicates that the deformation forecast precision is improved obviously.
引文
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2韩志刚.多层递阶方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1989.Han Zhigang.Multi-layered hierarchical analysis method and application[M].Beijing:Science Press,1989.(in Chinese)
3L T索德斯图姆.递推辩识的理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,1989.L T Soudstu.Recursive identification theory and practice[M].Beijing:Science Press,1989.(in Chinese)
4Box G E P and Jenkins G M.Time series analysis:forcasting and control[M].San Francisco,CA:Holden-Day,1970.
5Friedlander B J.System identification techniques for adap-tive signal processing[R].IEEE.Trans.Acoust.Speech andSignal Process,Vol Assp-30,No.2,1982.
6Cadzow J A.An effective ARMA modelling method[R].Computer aided seismic analysis and discrimination,August 19-21,1981.
7Swami A and Mendel J M.Identifiability of the AR parame-ters of an ARMAprocess using cumulants[R].IEEE Trans.on Automatic Control,Vol.37,pp.268-73,Feb.1992.
8Rioul O and Vetterli M.Wavelets and signal processing[R].IEEE Signal Processing Magazine,pp.14-38,Oct.1991.
9刘序俨,等.定点形变数字观测中高频信号特征及提取方法[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(增):5～10.Liu Xuyan,et al.Characteristics of high-frequncy singal in digitalized observation of fixed point deformation and its ex-traction method[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2006,26(Supp.):5-10.(in Chinese)
10张燕,等.潮汐形变资料中地震前兆信息的识别与提取[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2003,23(4):34～39.Zhang Yan,et al.Identification and extraction of earthquake precursor from tidal deformation data[J].Journal of Geod-esy and Geodynamics,2003,23(4):34-39.(in Chi-nese)
11牛安福,等.地壳持续加速变形与地震关系的研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(1):29～33.Niu Anfu,et al.Study on the continuously accelerated de-formation and the relationship with earthquake[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2002,22(1):29-33.(in Chinese)
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