由“静中动判据”对1996年2月3日丽江7级大震的中长期预测
|
摘要
历史地震活动有高低潮之分 .低潮中 6级以上地震活动的地方 ,暗示当地地下有较多的能量或是积能较快 ,下次大区域大震高潮来临时 ,这些 6级左右地震发生地区往往会发生7级和 7级以上大震 .我们把上述预报大震的判据称为“静中动判据”.这种判据对预报大震发生地方比较有效 ,一般震中误差不到 1 0 0 km.我们按此判据对 1 996年云南丽江 7级大震作了较成功的中期预报 ,地点误差约 50 km.另外 ,1 994年台湾海峡 7.3级大震、 1 995年滇缅接壤地区的 7.2级大震 ,以及 1 997年北玛尼 7.9级大震 ,也符合“静中动判据”的回顾性预报 .我们在 1 992年的统计发现“静中动”窗口是 1 940～ 1 945年、1 958～ 1 961年和 1 979～ 1 986年 .“静中动判据”在用于中国大陆内部时 ,“静中动地震”为 6级左右 ;在喜马拉雅地震带和太平洋地震带以及新疆西北边缘地震带 ,则“静中动地震”可达 7级 ,它们对应未来比 7级更大的地震 .对中国大陆从构造和几千年历史地震活动上看 ,无 7级大震可能的地区则不宜用”“静中动判据”.
WT5BZ]Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods . In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M S≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When a active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake ( M S≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The Judgement is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the Judgement, we made successfully a middle term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake ( M S=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan Myanmar boundary earthquake ( M S=7.2) and the Mani earthquake ( M S=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The windows of “ activity in quiescence” identified statistically by us are 1940~1945, 1958~1961 and 1979~1986. Using the “ criterion of activity in quiescence” to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China, the earthquake definited by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake definited by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake ( M S=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.
WT5BZ]Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods . In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M S≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When a active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake ( M S≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The Judgement is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the Judgement, we made successfully a middle term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake ( M S=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan Myanmar boundary earthquake ( M S=7.2) and the Mani earthquake ( M S=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The windows of “ activity in quiescence” identified statistically by us are 1940~1945, 1958~1961 and 1979~1986. Using the “ criterion of activity in quiescence” to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China, the earthquake definited by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake definited by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake ( M S=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.
引文
陈祥熊 ,袁定强 ,吴长江 .1 996.台湾海峡南部 MS7.3地震震源破裂特征及东南沿海地震形势分析 [J].地震学报 ,1 8( 2 ) :1 4 5～ 1 55
郭增建 ,秦保燕 ,李革平 .1 992 .未来灾害学 [M].北京 :地震出版社 ,4 97～ 50 0
郭增建 .1 988.1 996～ 1 997年两次 7级以上大震的跨越式预报 [J].地震学报 ,2 0 ( 6) :659～ 661
郭增建 ,秦保燕 ,李革平 .1 992 .未来灾害学 [M].北京 :地震出版社 ,4 97～ 50 0
郭增建 .1 988.1 996～ 1 997年两次 7级以上大震的跨越式预报 [J].地震学报 ,2 0 ( 6) :659～ 661
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心