天津地区隐伏断裂地震危险性定量评价
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摘要
以天津市活断裂探测资料为基础,通过对天津断裂的地质构造、第四纪活动性,深部构造、构造应力场与形变场及地震活动性等的研究,综合判定了天津北、天津南断裂的活动性与构造特征;利用地震地质、历史与现今地震活动性资料,建立了按500a归算的震级-频度关系模型,拟合了天津地区的最大震级上限Mmu与at/b的关系,用于对区内各断层小区中-弱隐伏活动断层潜在地震最大震级的评估。采用泊松概率模型,估算出天津南断裂未来50～200a发生地震的最大震级、发生概率及复发周期等定量参数。
Based on faults surveying and research data in Tianjin area,through studying tectonic structure,Quaternary activity,deep structure,stress and strain fields and seismicity on the Tianjin Fault,the activity and tectonic features of the fault are determined synthetically.Using seismo-geological data,and the historical and moderm seismicity data,the frequency-magnitude relationship model reckoning by 500years is established and the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude Mmu and at/b is fit,which is applied to evaluating potential earthquake's maximum magnitude on moderately and weakly active blind faults in the fault sub-areas of the region.Then Poisson probability model is adopted and quantitative parameters such as the maximum magnitude,occurrence probability,recurrence period of the south Tianjin Fault in the coming 50～200years are calculated.
Based on faults surveying and research data in Tianjin area,through studying tectonic structure,Quaternary activity,deep structure,stress and strain fields and seismicity on the Tianjin Fault,the activity and tectonic features of the fault are determined synthetically.Using seismo-geological data,and the historical and moderm seismicity data,the frequency-magnitude relationship model reckoning by 500years is established and the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude Mmu and at/b is fit,which is applied to evaluating potential earthquake's maximum magnitude on moderately and weakly active blind faults in the fault sub-areas of the region.Then Poisson probability model is adopted and quantitative parameters such as the maximum magnitude,occurrence probability,recurrence period of the south Tianjin Fault in the coming 50～200years are calculated.
引文
[1]陈宇坤等,2007,天津、沧东断裂地震危险性评价报告。
[1]郑文俊,陈宇坤,2004,天津断层、沧东断层遥感图像处理与解译技术报告。
[2]邵永新等,2007,天津、沧东断裂钻孔详细勘探与活动性鉴定报告。
[3]陈化然,吴国有等,2004,重力、航磁勘测资料构造解译报告。
[4]姚兰予,郭良迁等,2006,区域应力场与形变场特征研究报告。
邓起东.2002.城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题[J].地震地质,24(4):601—605.DENG Qi-dong.2002.Exploration and seismic hazard assessments of active faults in urban areas[J].Seismology andGeology,24(4):601—605(in Chinese).
国家地震局震害防御司.1990.地震工作手册[M].北京:地震出版社.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,State Seismological Bureau.1990.Handbook for Seismological Research[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994a.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一:以华北地区为例[J].地震学报,16(3):273—280.HUANG Wei-qiong,LI Wen-xiang,CAO Xue-feng.1994a.Research on the completeness of earthquake data on theChinese mainland(Ⅰ):North China[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,7(3):351—359.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994b.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二:分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图像[J].地震学报,16(4):423—432.HUANG Wei-qiong,LI Wen-xiang,CAO Xue-feng.1994b.Research on completeness of earthquake data on the Chinesemainland(Ⅱ):The regional distribution of the beginning years of basically complete earthquake data[J].ActaSeismologica Sinica,7(4):529—538.
闻学泽.1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估[M].北京:地震出版社.WEN Xue-ze.1995.Quantitative Estimates of Seismic Potential on Active faults[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(inChinese).
闻学泽,徐锡伟,龙锋,等.2007.中国大陆东部中-弱活动断层潜在地震最大震级评估的震级-频度关系模型[J].地震地质,29(2):236—253.WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei,LONG Feng,et al.2007.Frequency-magnitude relationship models for assessment of maxi-mum magnitudes of potential earthquake on moderately and weakly active faults in eastern China mainland[J].Seismology and Geology,29(2):236—253(in Chinese).
徐杰,牛娈芳,王春华,等.1996.唐山-河间-磁县新生地震构造带[J].地震地质,18(3):193—198.XU Jie,NIU Luan-fang,WANG Chun-hua,et al.1996.The newly generated Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian seismotectoniczone[J].Seismology and Geology,18(3):193—198(in Chinese).
徐锡伟,吴卫民,张先康,等.2002.首都圈地区地壳最新构造变动与地震[M].北京:科学出版社.XU Xi-wei,WU Wei-min,ZHANG Xian-kang,et al.2002.The Recent Crust Tectonic Deformation and Earthquake inthe Capital Region[M].Science Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
徐新学,陈宇坤,刘俊昌,等.2007.河北廊坊—天津大港剖面地壳上地幔电性结构特征[J].西北地震学报,29(4):364—370.XU Xin-xue,CHENYu-kun,LIUJun-chang,et al.2007.The crust and upper mantle electrical conductivity structure a-long the profile of Hebei Langfang-Tianjin Dagang[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,29(4):364—370(inChinese).
中国地震局.2005.中国地震活动断层探测技术系统技术规程[S].北京:地震出版社.35—45.China Earthquake Administration.2005.Stipulation on technical system for earthquake active fault surveying in China[S].Seismological Press,Beijing.35—45(in Chinese).
Ang A H-S and Tang W H.1975.Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design,Vol.1,Basic Principles[M].John Wiley&Sons.
Cornell C A.1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bull Seis Soc Am,58(5):1583—1606.
[1]郑文俊,陈宇坤,2004,天津断层、沧东断层遥感图像处理与解译技术报告。
[2]邵永新等,2007,天津、沧东断裂钻孔详细勘探与活动性鉴定报告。
[3]陈化然,吴国有等,2004,重力、航磁勘测资料构造解译报告。
[4]姚兰予,郭良迁等,2006,区域应力场与形变场特征研究报告。
邓起东.2002.城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题[J].地震地质,24(4):601—605.DENG Qi-dong.2002.Exploration and seismic hazard assessments of active faults in urban areas[J].Seismology andGeology,24(4):601—605(in Chinese).
国家地震局震害防御司.1990.地震工作手册[M].北京:地震出版社.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,State Seismological Bureau.1990.Handbook for Seismological Research[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994a.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一:以华北地区为例[J].地震学报,16(3):273—280.HUANG Wei-qiong,LI Wen-xiang,CAO Xue-feng.1994a.Research on the completeness of earthquake data on theChinese mainland(Ⅰ):North China[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,7(3):351—359.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994b.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二:分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图像[J].地震学报,16(4):423—432.HUANG Wei-qiong,LI Wen-xiang,CAO Xue-feng.1994b.Research on completeness of earthquake data on the Chinesemainland(Ⅱ):The regional distribution of the beginning years of basically complete earthquake data[J].ActaSeismologica Sinica,7(4):529—538.
闻学泽.1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估[M].北京:地震出版社.WEN Xue-ze.1995.Quantitative Estimates of Seismic Potential on Active faults[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(inChinese).
闻学泽,徐锡伟,龙锋,等.2007.中国大陆东部中-弱活动断层潜在地震最大震级评估的震级-频度关系模型[J].地震地质,29(2):236—253.WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei,LONG Feng,et al.2007.Frequency-magnitude relationship models for assessment of maxi-mum magnitudes of potential earthquake on moderately and weakly active faults in eastern China mainland[J].Seismology and Geology,29(2):236—253(in Chinese).
徐杰,牛娈芳,王春华,等.1996.唐山-河间-磁县新生地震构造带[J].地震地质,18(3):193—198.XU Jie,NIU Luan-fang,WANG Chun-hua,et al.1996.The newly generated Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian seismotectoniczone[J].Seismology and Geology,18(3):193—198(in Chinese).
徐锡伟,吴卫民,张先康,等.2002.首都圈地区地壳最新构造变动与地震[M].北京:科学出版社.XU Xi-wei,WU Wei-min,ZHANG Xian-kang,et al.2002.The Recent Crust Tectonic Deformation and Earthquake inthe Capital Region[M].Science Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
徐新学,陈宇坤,刘俊昌,等.2007.河北廊坊—天津大港剖面地壳上地幔电性结构特征[J].西北地震学报,29(4):364—370.XU Xin-xue,CHENYu-kun,LIUJun-chang,et al.2007.The crust and upper mantle electrical conductivity structure a-long the profile of Hebei Langfang-Tianjin Dagang[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,29(4):364—370(inChinese).
中国地震局.2005.中国地震活动断层探测技术系统技术规程[S].北京:地震出版社.35—45.China Earthquake Administration.2005.Stipulation on technical system for earthquake active fault surveying in China[S].Seismological Press,Beijing.35—45(in Chinese).
Ang A H-S and Tang W H.1975.Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design,Vol.1,Basic Principles[M].John Wiley&Sons.
Cornell C A.1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bull Seis Soc Am,58(5):1583—1606.
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