土坝震害评估模型研究

英文篇名：Study of evaluation model of earthquake damage to earth dams
中文刊名：岩土力学
英文刊名：Rock and Soil Mechanics
作者：郭恩栋 ; 张丽娜 ; 王亚东 ; 王再荣 ; 王琼
英文作者：GUO En-dong1 ; ZHANG Li-na1 ; WANG Ya-dong2 ; WANG Zai-rong1 ; WANG Qiong1(1.Institute of Engineering Mechanics ; China Earthquake Administration ; Harbin 150080 ; China ; 2.Survey Design and Research Institute of the Heilongjiang Water Utilities ; Harbin 150080 ; China)
中文关键词：土坝 ; 震害 ; 改进的经验统计模型 ; 汶川地震
英文关键词：earth dam ; earthquake damage ; improved empirical evaluation model ; Wenchuan earthquake
出版日期：2011-12-12
机构：中国地震局工程力学研究所;黑龙江省水利水电勘测设计研究院;
年：2011
期：12
出版单位：岩土力学

摘要

为了快速准确地对遭受地震影响的土坝工程的破坏状态进行评估,以土坝震害经验统计判断模型为基础,选取了更为合理的土坝震害影响因素,采用最小二乘法重新对土坝震害数据资料进行回归分析,得到了各震害影响因素在不同条件下的回归系数取值,从而建立了一个改进的土坝震害经验统计判断模型。与原模型相比,改进模型既剔除了不合理的震害影响因子,同时又使回归模型的预测准确度得到提高,其相关系数为0.908,标准差为0.459,均比原模型要好。采用两种模型对汶川地震中遭到破坏的47座土坝进行震害评估,并与实际震害进行了对比分析,初步验证了改进模型的可靠性。
In order to evaluate earthquake damage to earth dams quickly and accurately,more rational influence factors of the damage are chosen based on the empirical model.The least square method is used to re-analyze the earthquake damage data of earth dams.The regression coefficients of the influence factors of earthquake damage under different conditions are presented;and an improved empirical model to evaluate the earthquake damage to earth dams is set up.In the new model,irrational influence factors are eliminated;and the prediction accuracy of the regression model is improved with the correlation coefficient of 0.908 and the standard deviation of 0.459,which are better than the original model.By using both the improved and original model,47 earth dams damaged in Wenchuan Earthquake are evaluated.The results are analyzed by comparing with the real seismic damages,preliminarily proving the improved model to be more satisfying.

引文

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