全球大地震丛集现象可用随机变化来解释
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摘要
2004年以来发生的5次MW≥8.5地震使目前的地震危险性看似高于长期平均水平,也引发了一场有关我们是否身处群发性地震危险境地的争论。作者利用3种统计检验来确定1900年以来M≥7的地震记录是否拒绝添加了局部余震序列的恒速情况下独立随机事件的零假设。结果表明,这些数据不能拒绝零假设。由此,全球大地震的时间分布可在添加了局部余震的情况下通过一个随机过程得到很好的描绘,表面上的丛集现象只是缘于随机变化。所以说,未来地震的风险并没有增大(持续中的余震序列除外),地震风险评估应该尽可能地利用最长时间的地震记录。
引文
①辅助资料可以HTML格式获取。Dio:10.1029/2011GL049443。
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[1]Bufe C G,Perkins D M.Evidence for a global seismic moment release sequence.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,2005,95(3):833-843
[2]Romanowicz B.Spatiotemporal patterns in the energy release of great earthquakes.Science,1993,260:1923-1926
[3]Ammon C J,Lay T,Simpson D W.Great earthquakes and global seismic networks.Seism.Res.Lett.,2010,81(6):965-971
[4]Brodsky E E.The2004-2008worldwide superswarm.Eos Trans.AGU,2009,90(52),Fall Meet.Suppl.,Abstract S53B-06
[5]Bufe C G,Perkins D.The2011Tohoku earthquake:Resumption of temporal clustering of Earth’s megaquakes.Seism.Res.Lett.,2011,82:455
[6]Hill D P,Reasenberg P A,Michael A,et al.Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude7.3Landers,California,earthquake.Science,1993,260:1617-1623
[7]Velasco A A,Hernandez S,Parsons T,et al.Global ubiquity of dynamic earthquake triggering.Nat.Geosci.,2008,1:375-379
[8]Parsons T.Global Omori law decay in the rate of triggered earthquakes:Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone.J.Geophys.Res.,2002,107(B9),2199.doi:10.1029/2001JB000646
[9]Parsons T,Velasco A A.Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock region.Nat.Geosci.,2011,4:312-316
[10]Ammon C J,Aster R C,Lay T,et al.The Tohoku earthquake and a110-year spatiotemporal record of global seismic strain release.Seism.Res.Lett.,2011,82:454
[11]Michael A J.The recent rate of great earthquakes:Global clustering or random variability?Seism.Res.Lett.,2011,82:455
[12]Kerr R.More megaquakes on the way?That depends on your statistics.Science,2011,332:411
[13]Winchester S.The scariest earthquake is yet to come.Newsweek,CLVII(12),2011,10-11
[14]Allen T I,Marano K D,Earle P S,et al.PAGERCAT:A composite earthquake catalog for calibrating global fatality models.Seism.Res.Lett.,2009,80:57-62
[15]Engdahl E R,Villaseor A.Global Seismicity:1900-1999.In:Lee W H K,Jennings P,Kisslinger C,et al.(eds.),International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology,2002,665-690,Academic,Amsterdam
[16]Pacheco J F,Sykes L R.Seismic moment catalog of large shallow earthquakes,1900to1989.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,1992,82:1306-1349
[17]Gardner J K,Knopoff L.Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California,with aftershocks removed,Poissonian?Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,1974,64:1363-1367
[18]Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,1994,84(4):974-1002
[19]Geist E L,Titov V V,Arcas D,et al.Implications of the26December2004Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,2007,97(1A):S249-S270
[20]Lilliefors H W.On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the exponential distribution with mean unknown.J.Am.Stat.Assoc.,1969,64:387-389
[21]Bth M.Lateral inhomogeneities in the upper mantle.Tectonophysics,1965,2:483-514
[22]Satake K,Shimazaki K,Tsuji Y,et al.Time and size of a giant earthquake in Cascadia inferred from Japanese tsunami records of January1700.Nature,1996,379:246-249
[23]Michael A J.Testing prediction methods:Earthquake clustering versus the Poisson model.Geophys.Res.Lett.,1997,24(15):1891-1894
[24]Hanks T C,Kanamori H.A moment magnitude scale.J.Geophys.Res.,1979,84:2348-2350
[25]Benioff H.Earthquakes and rock creep:Part I:Creep characteristics of rocks and the origin of aftershocks.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,1951,41:31-62
[26]Mulargia F.Retrospective validation of the time association of precursors.Geophys.J.Int.,1997,131(3):500-504
[27]Lombardi A M,Marzocchi W.Evidence of clustering and nonstationarity in the time distribution of large world-wide earthquakes.J.Geophys.Res.,2007,112,B02303
[28]Marzocchi W,Lombardi A M.A double branching model for earthquake occurrence.J.Geophys.Res.,2008,113,B08317
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