厄尔尼诺事件和拉尼娜事件的成因与预测
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摘要
通过对南极气温资料、环南极海冰资料、臭氧变化资料、太平洋海温资料、地球自转速度变化资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的综合验证,发现了构造运动与厄尔尼诺因果关系。大气、海洋与岩石圈的角动量交换在南半球和北半球有不同的形式,这是由陆海分布的差异决定的。南极上空臭氧变化和环南极海冰变化是赤道海温和全球气候准两年振荡的原因。其中,德雷克海峡的海冰变化起主要作用。这个结论给出了作者提出的"海洋锅炉效应"、"臭氧洞漏能效应"、"德雷克海冰气候开关效应"和"大洋地壳跷跷板运动"的相互关系,证明构造运动对厄尔尼诺的重要影响。强潮汐准4a周期的发现,表明南极海冰变化、东太平洋海温变化、地球自转变化和厄尔尼诺都具有4a准周期变化的原因。海温和海冰开关的准2a周期和日食—厄尔尼诺系数理论有较好的预测效果。
Through comparing the data of sea ice around South Pole continent,ozone hole,temperature in Pacific Ocean,air temperature in South Pole continent,the velocity of earth's rotation and El Nio and La Nia events,a determined causality between the tectonic movement and El Nio was detected.The angular momentum exchange among atmosphere,ocean and lithosphere were different from southern hemisphere to northern hemisphere.The quasi biennial oscillation of global climate and equator ocean temperature are caused by the changes of ozone hole and sea ice around South Pole continent,and the sea ice in Drake channel play more important role than the others.This conclusion have given out the correlation among "sea bottom boiler effect","energy leakage of ozone hole","Drake sea-ice effect"and"ocean-crust seesaw movement",we advanced these above.So,the tectonic movement and landform impact significantly El Nio and La Nia to be proved.To have discovered the quasi four years cycle of strong tide indicated that there was the cause of quasi four-year oscillation for the changes of the sea ice around South Pole continent,the temperature in Eastern Pacific Ocean,the velocity of earth's rotation and El Nio.The quasi biennial oscillation of the ocean temperature in Drake channel and the theory of solar eclipse-El Nio coefficient have given fairly us two good predictors.
Through comparing the data of sea ice around South Pole continent,ozone hole,temperature in Pacific Ocean,air temperature in South Pole continent,the velocity of earth's rotation and El Nio and La Nia events,a determined causality between the tectonic movement and El Nio was detected.The angular momentum exchange among atmosphere,ocean and lithosphere were different from southern hemisphere to northern hemisphere.The quasi biennial oscillation of global climate and equator ocean temperature are caused by the changes of ozone hole and sea ice around South Pole continent,and the sea ice in Drake channel play more important role than the others.This conclusion have given out the correlation among "sea bottom boiler effect","energy leakage of ozone hole","Drake sea-ice effect"and"ocean-crust seesaw movement",we advanced these above.So,the tectonic movement and landform impact significantly El Nio and La Nia to be proved.To have discovered the quasi four years cycle of strong tide indicated that there was the cause of quasi four-year oscillation for the changes of the sea ice around South Pole continent,the temperature in Eastern Pacific Ocean,the velocity of earth's rotation and El Nio.The quasi biennial oscillation of the ocean temperature in Drake channel and the theory of solar eclipse-El Nio coefficient have given fairly us two good predictors.
引文
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[2]杨学祥.大气、海洋与固体地球的能量交换[J].世界地质,2004,23(1):28-34.
[3]杨学祥.厄尔尼诺现象的构造基础与激发因素[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(4):367-370.
[4]Frakes,L A.Climates throughout geologic time[M].Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company,Amsterdam-Oxford-New York,1979.182,192,200,223,315.
[5]杨学祥.太平洋环流速度减慢的原因[J].世界地质,2003,22(4):380-384.
[6]Lowell Stott,Christopher Poulsen,and Steve Lund,et al.Super ENSO and Global Climate Oscillations at MillennialTime Scales[J].Science.2002,297:222-226.
[7]Athanasios Koutavas,Jean Lynch-Stieglitz,and ThomasM,et al.El Nio-Like Pattern in Ice Age Tropical PacificSea Surface Temperature[J].Science.2002,297:226-230.
[8]David W.Lea.The Glacial Tropical Pacific--Not Just aWest Side Story[J].Science.2002,297:202-203
[9]任振球.全球变化[M].北京:科学出版社,1990:60,72-74,88,105.
[10]郑大伟,宋国玄,罗时芳.日长变化观测资料预测ElNino事件[J].科学通报,1990,35(16):1244-1246.
[11]周永宏,郑大伟,虞南华,廖新浩.地球自转运动与大气、海洋活动[J].科学通报,2000,45(24):2588-2597.
[12]Liao D C,Greiner-Mai H.A new D LOD series inmonthly intervals(1892.0—1997.0)and its comparisonwith other geophysical results.J Geodesy,1999,73:466-477.
[13]Hide R,Dickey J O.Earth's variable rotation.Science,1991,253:629-637.
[14]Morgan P J,King R W,Shapiro I I.Length of day andatmospheric angular momentum:a comparison for 1981～1983.J Geophys Res,1985,90:12645-12652.
[15]Wahr J M,Oort A H.Friction and mountain-torqueestimates from global atmospheric data.J Atm Sci,1984,41:190-204.
[16]Rosen R D,Salstein D A.Comment on“a seasonalbudget of the earth’s axial angular momentum”by Naitoand Kikuchi.Geophys Res Lett,1991,18:1925-1926.
[17]杨冬红,杨学祥.潮汐和地震对全球气候变化的影响[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2007,1(4):5-12.
[18]Konstantin Y.Vinnikov and Norman C.Grody.GlobalWarming Trend of Mean Tropospheric TemperatureObserved by Satellites[J].Science.2003,302:269-272.
[19]Thomas L.Delworth and Thomas R.Knutson.Simulationof Early 20th Century Global Warming[J].Science.2000,287:2246-2250.
[20]Nathan P.Gillett and David W.J.Thompson.Simulationof Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change[J].Science.2003,302:273-275.
[21]David J.Karoly.Ozone and Climate Change[J].Science.2003,302:236-237.
[22]杨学祥,陈殿友.构造形变、气象灾害与地球轨道的关系[J].地壳形变与地震,2000,20(3):39-48.
[23]杨学祥.青藏高原隆升的潮汐-均衡模式[J].世界地质,2003,22(2):119-123.
[24]Krishna L.Foster,Robert A.Plastridge,and Jan W.Bottenheim,e al.The Role of Br2 and BrCl in Surface Ozone Destruction at Polar Sunrise[J].Science.2001,291:471-474.
[25]Kai Hebestreit,Jochen Stutz and David Rosen,et al.DOAS Measurements of Tropospheric Bromine Oxide in Mid-Latitudes[J].Science,1999,283:55-57.
[26]Satish C.B.Myneni.Formation of Stable Chlorinated Hydrocarbons in Weathering Plant Material[J].Science,2002,295:1039-1041.
[27]Casey W.H.The Fate of Chlorine in Soils[J].Science,2002,295:985-986.
[28]任福民,王梅华,周秀骥等.近十五年全球臭氧变化[J].气象学报,1998,56(4):485-492.
[29]周秀骥,陆龙骅.南极与全球气候环境相互作用和影响的研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1996:1-5,12,44,133,380,381-392.
[30]王在文,李晓东.太平洋海温演变的时空结构[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2002,38(2):350-357.
[31]林振山,赵佩章,赵文桐.日食—厄尔尼诺系数及其应用[J].地球物理学报,1999,42(6):732-738.
[32]杨学祥.厄尔尼诺事件产生的原因与验证[J].自然杂志,2004,26(3):151-155.
[33]杨学祥.地球流体的差异旋转与气候变化[J].自然杂志,2002,24(2):87-91.
[34]杨学祥.厄尔尼诺现象的构造基础与激发因素[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(4):367-370.
[35]杨学祥.2001年发生厄尔尼诺事件的天文条件[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(增刊):56-61.
[36]杨冬红,杨学祥,刘财.海平面震荡与地震的关系研究[J].世界地质,2004,23(4):407-410.
[37]林玎,杨学祥,杨冬红.2004年厄尔尼诺事件的理论预测和实践检验[J].海洋预报,2005,22(3):5-10.
[38]杨学祥.海底扩张的潮汐模式[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2003,23(2):77-80.
[39]杨学祥,陈震,陈殿友,等.厄尔尼诺事件与强潮汐的对应关系[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2003,33(1):87-91.
[40]杨学祥,陈震,乔淇源.2002年厄尔尼诺事件的天文条件[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(2):190-192.
[41]Shanaka de Silva.Globe change:Eruptiongs linked to ElNio[J].Nature,2003,426:239-241.
[42]Walker,D.A.,More Evidence Indicates Link Between ElNios and Seismicity[J].Eos.1995,76(4):33,34,36.
[43]傅承义.地球十讲[M].北京:科学出版社,1976:55-57.
[44]WANG Bin,WANG Yan.Development of El Niosduring 1971-1992[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology.1994,(2):26-40.
[45]郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气耦合与天灾预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1996:176-181.
[46]E.布赖恩特.气候过程和气候变化[M].刘东生,等译.北京:科学出版社,2004:11.
[47]徐文耀,Henri-Claud Nataf,魏自刚,等.地磁场长期变化速率的30年周期[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(5):1329-1337.
[48]曲维政,陈璐,黄菲,等.南半球对流层气候年代际变化及其与太阳活动的联系.地球科学进展,2005,20(7):794-803.
[49]曲维政,邓声贵,黄菲,等.深海温度变化对太阳活动的响应[J].第四纪研究,2004,24(3):285-292.
[50]曲维政,邓声贵,黄菲,等.太阳磁场磁性指数异常变化对南北半球中纬度气候的影响[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(3):398-404.
[51]Charles D.Keeling and Timothy P.Whorf.The 1800-year oceanic tidal cycle:A possible cause of rapidclimate change[J].PNAS,2000,97(8):3814-3819.
[52]杨学祥,牛树银,陈殿友.深部物质与深部过程[J].地学前缘,1998,5(3):77-85.
[53]杨冬红,杨学祥.澳大利亚夏季大雪与南极海冰三个气候开关[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(5):1680-1685.
[54]郭艳君,朱艳峰.2006年10月海冰监测[EB/OL].http://ncc.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=2&NewsID=2388,2006-11-20.
[55]杨学祥,杨冬红“.太平洋十年涛动”冷位相时期的全球飓风等灾害[J].海洋预报。2006,23(3):30-35.
[56]杨冬红,杨学祥,刘财.2004年12月26日印尼地震海啸与全球低温[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(3):1023-1027.
[2]杨学祥.大气、海洋与固体地球的能量交换[J].世界地质,2004,23(1):28-34.
[3]杨学祥.厄尔尼诺现象的构造基础与激发因素[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(4):367-370.
[4]Frakes,L A.Climates throughout geologic time[M].Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company,Amsterdam-Oxford-New York,1979.182,192,200,223,315.
[5]杨学祥.太平洋环流速度减慢的原因[J].世界地质,2003,22(4):380-384.
[6]Lowell Stott,Christopher Poulsen,and Steve Lund,et al.Super ENSO and Global Climate Oscillations at MillennialTime Scales[J].Science.2002,297:222-226.
[7]Athanasios Koutavas,Jean Lynch-Stieglitz,and ThomasM,et al.El Nio-Like Pattern in Ice Age Tropical PacificSea Surface Temperature[J].Science.2002,297:226-230.
[8]David W.Lea.The Glacial Tropical Pacific--Not Just aWest Side Story[J].Science.2002,297:202-203
[9]任振球.全球变化[M].北京:科学出版社,1990:60,72-74,88,105.
[10]郑大伟,宋国玄,罗时芳.日长变化观测资料预测ElNino事件[J].科学通报,1990,35(16):1244-1246.
[11]周永宏,郑大伟,虞南华,廖新浩.地球自转运动与大气、海洋活动[J].科学通报,2000,45(24):2588-2597.
[12]Liao D C,Greiner-Mai H.A new D LOD series inmonthly intervals(1892.0—1997.0)and its comparisonwith other geophysical results.J Geodesy,1999,73:466-477.
[13]Hide R,Dickey J O.Earth's variable rotation.Science,1991,253:629-637.
[14]Morgan P J,King R W,Shapiro I I.Length of day andatmospheric angular momentum:a comparison for 1981～1983.J Geophys Res,1985,90:12645-12652.
[15]Wahr J M,Oort A H.Friction and mountain-torqueestimates from global atmospheric data.J Atm Sci,1984,41:190-204.
[16]Rosen R D,Salstein D A.Comment on“a seasonalbudget of the earth’s axial angular momentum”by Naitoand Kikuchi.Geophys Res Lett,1991,18:1925-1926.
[17]杨冬红,杨学祥.潮汐和地震对全球气候变化的影响[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2007,1(4):5-12.
[18]Konstantin Y.Vinnikov and Norman C.Grody.GlobalWarming Trend of Mean Tropospheric TemperatureObserved by Satellites[J].Science.2003,302:269-272.
[19]Thomas L.Delworth and Thomas R.Knutson.Simulationof Early 20th Century Global Warming[J].Science.2000,287:2246-2250.
[20]Nathan P.Gillett and David W.J.Thompson.Simulationof Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change[J].Science.2003,302:273-275.
[21]David J.Karoly.Ozone and Climate Change[J].Science.2003,302:236-237.
[22]杨学祥,陈殿友.构造形变、气象灾害与地球轨道的关系[J].地壳形变与地震,2000,20(3):39-48.
[23]杨学祥.青藏高原隆升的潮汐-均衡模式[J].世界地质,2003,22(2):119-123.
[24]Krishna L.Foster,Robert A.Plastridge,and Jan W.Bottenheim,e al.The Role of Br2 and BrCl in Surface Ozone Destruction at Polar Sunrise[J].Science.2001,291:471-474.
[25]Kai Hebestreit,Jochen Stutz and David Rosen,et al.DOAS Measurements of Tropospheric Bromine Oxide in Mid-Latitudes[J].Science,1999,283:55-57.
[26]Satish C.B.Myneni.Formation of Stable Chlorinated Hydrocarbons in Weathering Plant Material[J].Science,2002,295:1039-1041.
[27]Casey W.H.The Fate of Chlorine in Soils[J].Science,2002,295:985-986.
[28]任福民,王梅华,周秀骥等.近十五年全球臭氧变化[J].气象学报,1998,56(4):485-492.
[29]周秀骥,陆龙骅.南极与全球气候环境相互作用和影响的研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1996:1-5,12,44,133,380,381-392.
[30]王在文,李晓东.太平洋海温演变的时空结构[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2002,38(2):350-357.
[31]林振山,赵佩章,赵文桐.日食—厄尔尼诺系数及其应用[J].地球物理学报,1999,42(6):732-738.
[32]杨学祥.厄尔尼诺事件产生的原因与验证[J].自然杂志,2004,26(3):151-155.
[33]杨学祥.地球流体的差异旋转与气候变化[J].自然杂志,2002,24(2):87-91.
[34]杨学祥.厄尔尼诺现象的构造基础与激发因素[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(4):367-370.
[35]杨学祥.2001年发生厄尔尼诺事件的天文条件[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(增刊):56-61.
[36]杨冬红,杨学祥,刘财.海平面震荡与地震的关系研究[J].世界地质,2004,23(4):407-410.
[37]林玎,杨学祥,杨冬红.2004年厄尔尼诺事件的理论预测和实践检验[J].海洋预报,2005,22(3):5-10.
[38]杨学祥.海底扩张的潮汐模式[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2003,23(2):77-80.
[39]杨学祥,陈震,陈殿友,等.厄尔尼诺事件与强潮汐的对应关系[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2003,33(1):87-91.
[40]杨学祥,陈震,乔淇源.2002年厄尔尼诺事件的天文条件[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(2):190-192.
[41]Shanaka de Silva.Globe change:Eruptiongs linked to ElNio[J].Nature,2003,426:239-241.
[42]Walker,D.A.,More Evidence Indicates Link Between ElNios and Seismicity[J].Eos.1995,76(4):33,34,36.
[43]傅承义.地球十讲[M].北京:科学出版社,1976:55-57.
[44]WANG Bin,WANG Yan.Development of El Niosduring 1971-1992[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology.1994,(2):26-40.
[45]郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气耦合与天灾预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1996:176-181.
[46]E.布赖恩特.气候过程和气候变化[M].刘东生,等译.北京:科学出版社,2004:11.
[47]徐文耀,Henri-Claud Nataf,魏自刚,等.地磁场长期变化速率的30年周期[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(5):1329-1337.
[48]曲维政,陈璐,黄菲,等.南半球对流层气候年代际变化及其与太阳活动的联系.地球科学进展,2005,20(7):794-803.
[49]曲维政,邓声贵,黄菲,等.深海温度变化对太阳活动的响应[J].第四纪研究,2004,24(3):285-292.
[50]曲维政,邓声贵,黄菲,等.太阳磁场磁性指数异常变化对南北半球中纬度气候的影响[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(3):398-404.
[51]Charles D.Keeling and Timothy P.Whorf.The 1800-year oceanic tidal cycle:A possible cause of rapidclimate change[J].PNAS,2000,97(8):3814-3819.
[52]杨学祥,牛树银,陈殿友.深部物质与深部过程[J].地学前缘,1998,5(3):77-85.
[53]杨冬红,杨学祥.澳大利亚夏季大雪与南极海冰三个气候开关[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(5):1680-1685.
[54]郭艳君,朱艳峰.2006年10月海冰监测[EB/OL].http://ncc.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=2&NewsID=2388,2006-11-20.
[55]杨学祥,杨冬红“.太平洋十年涛动”冷位相时期的全球飓风等灾害[J].海洋预报。2006,23(3):30-35.
[56]杨冬红,杨学祥,刘财.2004年12月26日印尼地震海啸与全球低温[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(3):1023-1027.
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