对四川汶川大地震有关问题的思考与初步认识
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摘要
汶川大地震破坏性强,次生地质灾害严重。论文介绍了汶川大地震的地质构造背景与基本情况,以及作者对汶川大地震的发震构造、震后龙门山的地震安全期、成都-德阳-绵阳经济带的地震安全性及龙门山地震对川西油气聚散的影响等问题的认识。作者认为:(1)汶川大地震的发震构造可能是彭灌断裂而非普遍认为的北川-映秀断裂,(2)成-德-绵经济带中心城市市区范围内发生灾难性地震的可能性很小,这些城市的地震威胁依然主要来自龙门山,对来自龙泉山的地震威胁也应予以考虑;(3)地震可能造成了龙门山深层天然气的散失,但有利于川西坳陷裂缝性油气藏的形成;(4)龙门山的隆升演化与地震活动可能受制于西侧松潘-甘孜地块的推覆与东侧四川盆地的俯冲双向挤压力的作用。论文提出了从龙门山压缩应变能积聚与耗散均衡估算入手推算震后的地震安全期、利用油气生产井压力数据监测地应力变化、通过地震模拟计算定量评价成-德-绵经济带地震安全性等设想与建议。
A devastating earthquake of magnitude 8.0 called Wenchuan earthquake struck Sichuan on May 12,2008.It resulted in huge casualties and property losses in the Longmen region of Sichuan and the southern Shaanxi and southern Gansu.The paper introduces the tectonic settings and the general situation of the Wenchuan earthquake.It presents the authors' thought on the issues of the causative structure of the earthquake,the Longmen earthquake safety period after the earthquake,the earthquake safety of the Chengdu-Deyang-Mianyang economic zone,and the impaction of the earthquakes on the hydrocarbon accumulation and dissipation in West Sichuan.The authors put forward the following new opinions:(1) the causative structure of this earthquake may be the Peng-Guan fault,not the Beichuan-Yingxiu fault(central fault);(2) it is almost impossible for a devastating earthquake to occur in the urban areas of the Chengdu-Deyang-Mianyang economic zone;the main earthquake threat to these cities still comes from Longmen Mountains,and the menace from Longquan Mountains should also be taken into account;(3) the earthquake may lead to hydrocarbon dissipation in Longmen Mountains,but it may be favorable to the forming of the fractured reservoir and hydrocarbon accumulation in the West Sichuan depression;(4) The uplift of Longmen Mountains and the earthquakes in Longmen mountains may be controlled by the bilateral compressive forces from the Songpan-Ganzi block on the west side and Sichuan Basin on the east side.The authors put forward two tentative ideas: one is to estimate the rhythm of a strong earthquake in Longmen Mountains by calculating the balance between the accumulation and dissipation of the compressed strain energy,and another is to monitor the changes of the Earth stress in deep by using the pressure data measured from oil or gas producing wells.
A devastating earthquake of magnitude 8.0 called Wenchuan earthquake struck Sichuan on May 12,2008.It resulted in huge casualties and property losses in the Longmen region of Sichuan and the southern Shaanxi and southern Gansu.The paper introduces the tectonic settings and the general situation of the Wenchuan earthquake.It presents the authors' thought on the issues of the causative structure of the earthquake,the Longmen earthquake safety period after the earthquake,the earthquake safety of the Chengdu-Deyang-Mianyang economic zone,and the impaction of the earthquakes on the hydrocarbon accumulation and dissipation in West Sichuan.The authors put forward the following new opinions:(1) the causative structure of this earthquake may be the Peng-Guan fault,not the Beichuan-Yingxiu fault(central fault);(2) it is almost impossible for a devastating earthquake to occur in the urban areas of the Chengdu-Deyang-Mianyang economic zone;the main earthquake threat to these cities still comes from Longmen Mountains,and the menace from Longquan Mountains should also be taken into account;(3) the earthquake may lead to hydrocarbon dissipation in Longmen Mountains,but it may be favorable to the forming of the fractured reservoir and hydrocarbon accumulation in the West Sichuan depression;(4) The uplift of Longmen Mountains and the earthquakes in Longmen mountains may be controlled by the bilateral compressive forces from the Songpan-Ganzi block on the west side and Sichuan Basin on the east side.The authors put forward two tentative ideas: one is to estimate the rhythm of a strong earthquake in Longmen Mountains by calculating the balance between the accumulation and dissipation of the compressed strain energy,and another is to monitor the changes of the Earth stress in deep by using the pressure data measured from oil or gas producing wells.
引文
[1]刘树根,罗志立,曹树恒.四川龙门山冲断带(中北段)岩石圈的圈层性和多级化滑脱推覆[J].四川地质学报,1990,10(3):145-150.
[2]刘树根,罗志立,戴苏兰,等.龙门山冲断带的隆升和川西前陆盆地的沉降[J].地质学报,1995,69(3):204-214.
[3]刘树根,罗志立,赵锡奎,等.中国西部盆山系统的耦合关系及其动力学模式以龙门山造山带-川西前陆盆地系统为例[J].地质学报,2003,77(2):177-186.
[4]刘树根,罗志立,赵锡奎,等.龙门山造山带-川西前陆盆地系统形成的动力学模式及模拟研究[J].石油实验地质,2003,25(5):432-438.
[5]BURCHFIEL B C,CHEN Z,LIU Y,et al.Tecton-ics of the Longmen Shan and adjacent regions[J].International Geological Review,1995,37(8):661-736.
[6]BURCHFIEL B C.New technology:new geologicalchallenges[J].GSA TODAY,2004,14(2):4-9.
[7]JIA Dong,WEI Guoqi,CHEN Zhuxin,et al.Long-men Shan fold-thrust belt and its relation to the west-ern Sichuan Basin in central China:New insightsfrom hydrocarbon exploration[J].AAPG Bulletin,2006,90(9):1425-1447.
[8]蔡学林,曹家敏,朱介寿,等.中国大陆岩石圈壳幔柔性剪切带系统[J].地学前缘,2008,15(3):42-54.
[9]DEWEY J F,BURKE K C A.Tibetan,Variscan,and Precambrian Basement Reactivation:Products ofContinental Collision[J].Journal of Geology,1973,81:683-692.
[10]HOUSEMAN G,ENGLAND P.A dynamicalmodel of lithosphere extension and sedimentarybasi n formation[J].J Geophys Res,1986,91:719-729.
[11]TAPPONNIER P.Propagating extrusion tectonicsin Asia:new insights from simple experimentswith plasticine[J].Geology,1982,10:611-616.
[12]PELZER G,TAPPONNIER P.Formation and evo-lution of strike-slip faults,rifts and basins duringIndia-Asia collision:an experimental approach[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1988,93:15095-15117.
[13]朱介寿,蔡学林,曹家敏,等.中国华南及东海地区岩石圈三维结构及演化[M].北京:地质出版社,2006:231-254.
[14]1933年以来本次地震震中200公里范围内的历史地震[EB/OL].(2008-05-13).http://www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/sichuan080512_his.htm
[15]平成20年(2008年)中国四川省地震速报[EB/OL].(2005-05-19).http://www.gsj.jp/jishin/china_080512/index.html
[16]Magnitude 7.9-Eastern Sichuan,China[EB/OL].[2008-07-07].http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2008ryan.phpdetails
[17]Seismic alert:Eastern Sichuan,China 12 May 200806:28 UTC 7.9 MW[EB/OL].(2008-05-16).http://www.earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/latest/eastern_sichuan_12052008/eastern_sichuan_12052008.htm
[18]王卫民,姚振兴,赵连锋.汶川Ms8.0级地震震源过程[EB/OL].(2008-05-19).http://www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/sichuan080512_cs2.htm.
[19]陈运泰,张勇,许力生,等.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[R/OL].(2008-05-25).http://www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/chenyuntai.pdf.
[20]USGS Centroid Moment Tensor Solution[EB/OL].(2008-05-12).http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2008/eq_080512_ryan/neic_ryan_cmt.html.
[21]CHEN Ji,HAYES G.Finite Fault Model-Preliminary Result of the May 12,2008 Mw 7.9Eastern Sichuan,China Earthquake[EB/OL].(2008-05-12).http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2008/us2008ryan/finite_fault.php.
[22]引間和人.2008年四川省地震の震源過程(②定解2)[EB/OL].(2008-05-15).http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/topics/china2008/source.html.
[23]Earthquake summary poster-poster of the EasternSichuan,China earthquake of 12 May 2008-Magnitude 7.9[EB/OL].(2008-05-14).http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/poster/2008/20080512_image.php.
[24]5.12汶川大地震强震动数据处理情况简报(5)[EB/OL].(2008-05-30).http://www.smsd-iem.net.cn/info/news_view.asp?newsid=26.
[25]张景勇,邹声文,周婷玉.地震局地质所所长张培震详解汶川特大地震特征与成因[EB/OL].(2008-06-27).http://www.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2008/6/208446.html.
[26]王立彬.四川汶川地震原因已有初步结论[EB/OL].(2008-05-18).http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2008-05/18/content_981554.htm.
[27]嵇少丞.四川盆地失去“地震屏障”后怎么办?[EB/OL].(2008-05-30).http://www.sciencenet.cn/blog/user_content.aspx?id=28100.
[28]Earthquake near Wenchuan,West Sichuan,China2008 May 12 06:28:01 UTC;Magnitude 7.9[EB/OL].(2008-07-04).http://quake.mit.edu/~changli/wenchuan.html.
[29]PARSONS T,JI C,KIRBY E.Stress changes fromthe 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and increased haz-ard in the Sichuan basin[J/OL].(2008-07-06).Nature,2008,doi:10.1038/nature07177.
[30]Shakemap us2008ryan[EB/OL].(2008-05-13).http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/shakemap/global/shake/2008ryan.
[31]倪师军,曹俊兴,李永昭.汶川大地震未对成都主城区造成损害的初步分析[EB/OL].(2008-05-29).http://www.cdbot.chengdu.gov.cn/syssource/mainpage/cdta_sp1/default.asp?pageid=356&moduleid=195&id=8513&frompageid=0.
[32]钱洪,唐荣昌.成都平原最大可能地震能力估计[J].四川地震,1997,(4):1-7.
[33]黄圣睦,何天华,范明祥,等.从石油人工地震资料分析成都平原地震地质背景的新认识[J].地震地质,2003,25(4):581-594.
[34]科学网专题:四川省大地震[EB/OL].[2008-06-30].http://www.sciencenet.cn/news/sub2.aspx?id=127.
[35]Massachusetts Institute of Technology(2008,July4).China earthquake rare and unexpected,saysnew study[J/OL].(2008-07-04).Science Daily.http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080630130119.htm
[36]张珍.我们是怎样预报松潘7.2级地震的纪念松潘7.2级地震30周年[J].四川地震,2007,(3):22-27.
[37]陈瑞银,赵文智,邱中建,等.地震动促进石油运移的一种模式及其发生边界[J].地质学报,2007,81(11):1531-1537.
[2]刘树根,罗志立,戴苏兰,等.龙门山冲断带的隆升和川西前陆盆地的沉降[J].地质学报,1995,69(3):204-214.
[3]刘树根,罗志立,赵锡奎,等.中国西部盆山系统的耦合关系及其动力学模式以龙门山造山带-川西前陆盆地系统为例[J].地质学报,2003,77(2):177-186.
[4]刘树根,罗志立,赵锡奎,等.龙门山造山带-川西前陆盆地系统形成的动力学模式及模拟研究[J].石油实验地质,2003,25(5):432-438.
[5]BURCHFIEL B C,CHEN Z,LIU Y,et al.Tecton-ics of the Longmen Shan and adjacent regions[J].International Geological Review,1995,37(8):661-736.
[6]BURCHFIEL B C.New technology:new geologicalchallenges[J].GSA TODAY,2004,14(2):4-9.
[7]JIA Dong,WEI Guoqi,CHEN Zhuxin,et al.Long-men Shan fold-thrust belt and its relation to the west-ern Sichuan Basin in central China:New insightsfrom hydrocarbon exploration[J].AAPG Bulletin,2006,90(9):1425-1447.
[8]蔡学林,曹家敏,朱介寿,等.中国大陆岩石圈壳幔柔性剪切带系统[J].地学前缘,2008,15(3):42-54.
[9]DEWEY J F,BURKE K C A.Tibetan,Variscan,and Precambrian Basement Reactivation:Products ofContinental Collision[J].Journal of Geology,1973,81:683-692.
[10]HOUSEMAN G,ENGLAND P.A dynamicalmodel of lithosphere extension and sedimentarybasi n formation[J].J Geophys Res,1986,91:719-729.
[11]TAPPONNIER P.Propagating extrusion tectonicsin Asia:new insights from simple experimentswith plasticine[J].Geology,1982,10:611-616.
[12]PELZER G,TAPPONNIER P.Formation and evo-lution of strike-slip faults,rifts and basins duringIndia-Asia collision:an experimental approach[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1988,93:15095-15117.
[13]朱介寿,蔡学林,曹家敏,等.中国华南及东海地区岩石圈三维结构及演化[M].北京:地质出版社,2006:231-254.
[14]1933年以来本次地震震中200公里范围内的历史地震[EB/OL].(2008-05-13).http://www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/sichuan080512_his.htm
[15]平成20年(2008年)中国四川省地震速报[EB/OL].(2005-05-19).http://www.gsj.jp/jishin/china_080512/index.html
[16]Magnitude 7.9-Eastern Sichuan,China[EB/OL].[2008-07-07].http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2008ryan.phpdetails
[17]Seismic alert:Eastern Sichuan,China 12 May 200806:28 UTC 7.9 MW[EB/OL].(2008-05-16).http://www.earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/latest/eastern_sichuan_12052008/eastern_sichuan_12052008.htm
[18]王卫民,姚振兴,赵连锋.汶川Ms8.0级地震震源过程[EB/OL].(2008-05-19).http://www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/sichuan080512_cs2.htm.
[19]陈运泰,张勇,许力生,等.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[R/OL].(2008-05-25).http://www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/chenyuntai.pdf.
[20]USGS Centroid Moment Tensor Solution[EB/OL].(2008-05-12).http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2008/eq_080512_ryan/neic_ryan_cmt.html.
[21]CHEN Ji,HAYES G.Finite Fault Model-Preliminary Result of the May 12,2008 Mw 7.9Eastern Sichuan,China Earthquake[EB/OL].(2008-05-12).http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2008/us2008ryan/finite_fault.php.
[22]引間和人.2008年四川省地震の震源過程(②定解2)[EB/OL].(2008-05-15).http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/topics/china2008/source.html.
[23]Earthquake summary poster-poster of the EasternSichuan,China earthquake of 12 May 2008-Magnitude 7.9[EB/OL].(2008-05-14).http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/poster/2008/20080512_image.php.
[24]5.12汶川大地震强震动数据处理情况简报(5)[EB/OL].(2008-05-30).http://www.smsd-iem.net.cn/info/news_view.asp?newsid=26.
[25]张景勇,邹声文,周婷玉.地震局地质所所长张培震详解汶川特大地震特征与成因[EB/OL].(2008-06-27).http://www.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2008/6/208446.html.
[26]王立彬.四川汶川地震原因已有初步结论[EB/OL].(2008-05-18).http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2008-05/18/content_981554.htm.
[27]嵇少丞.四川盆地失去“地震屏障”后怎么办?[EB/OL].(2008-05-30).http://www.sciencenet.cn/blog/user_content.aspx?id=28100.
[28]Earthquake near Wenchuan,West Sichuan,China2008 May 12 06:28:01 UTC;Magnitude 7.9[EB/OL].(2008-07-04).http://quake.mit.edu/~changli/wenchuan.html.
[29]PARSONS T,JI C,KIRBY E.Stress changes fromthe 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and increased haz-ard in the Sichuan basin[J/OL].(2008-07-06).Nature,2008,doi:10.1038/nature07177.
[30]Shakemap us2008ryan[EB/OL].(2008-05-13).http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/shakemap/global/shake/2008ryan.
[31]倪师军,曹俊兴,李永昭.汶川大地震未对成都主城区造成损害的初步分析[EB/OL].(2008-05-29).http://www.cdbot.chengdu.gov.cn/syssource/mainpage/cdta_sp1/default.asp?pageid=356&moduleid=195&id=8513&frompageid=0.
[32]钱洪,唐荣昌.成都平原最大可能地震能力估计[J].四川地震,1997,(4):1-7.
[33]黄圣睦,何天华,范明祥,等.从石油人工地震资料分析成都平原地震地质背景的新认识[J].地震地质,2003,25(4):581-594.
[34]科学网专题:四川省大地震[EB/OL].[2008-06-30].http://www.sciencenet.cn/news/sub2.aspx?id=127.
[35]Massachusetts Institute of Technology(2008,July4).China earthquake rare and unexpected,saysnew study[J/OL].(2008-07-04).Science Daily.http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080630130119.htm
[36]张珍.我们是怎样预报松潘7.2级地震的纪念松潘7.2级地震30周年[J].四川地震,2007,(3):22-27.
[37]陈瑞银,赵文智,邱中建,等.地震动促进石油运移的一种模式及其发生边界[J].地质学报,2007,81(11):1531-1537.
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