南北地震带等地区强地震在华北中南部的“响应地震”研究
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摘要
2008年5月12日T14:28汶川发生8.0级大地震,2008年5月13日T5:00江苏省发生滨海ML3.8地震。滨海地震是否是由汶川地震触发的、可指示滨海附近中短期内将发生中强地震的"诱发前震"?基于此,本文进行了如下研究:①统计南北地震带及中国台湾7.3级以上、日本7.5级以上大地震;②统计①中大震发生后3天时间(72 h)内,华北中南部地区发生的M_L 3以上地震;③统计大震发生后1年内在M_L 3地震附近地区(距震中350 km以内)发生的5级以上地震;④对上述3组地震是否存在链式关系进行统计研究,即研究特定条件下的A—F—B链式地震现象在华北中南部的预报效果。研究结果表明:根据目前所拥有的统计资料,无法确定2008年5月13日滨海M_L 3.8地震是由汶川8级地震诱发的"前兆地震"。
After the 5.12 Wenchuan M_S 8.0 earthquake, an earthquake M_L 3.8 occurred at Binhai area of Jiangsu Province in 13 May 2008.It is noted whether the Binhai earthquake was induced by the Wenchuan earthquake, and whether it is a "induced foreshock" which may imply the occurrence of moderate-strong earthquake in the moderate or short period nearby the Binhai area.In order to enclose the two problems, this paper will discuss the next subjects: ① to count great shocks occurred in North-South Seismic Zone, Taiwan Province and Japan with M_S≥7.3, M_S≥7.3 and M_S≥7.5, respectively;② to count earthquakes M_L≥3.0 occurred in North China region within 3 days after the earthquakes mentioned in ①;③ to count earthquakes M_S≥5.0 occurring in 350 km around the epicenter of the earthquakes M_L≥3.0 mentioned in ② within a year after the great shocks mentioned in ①;④ to analyze the chain relations among the above three group earthquakes, that is, the predicting effect of the North China area based on A-F-B chain earthquake method in a particular condition. It is concluded that the limited and insufficient counts can not ensure the Binhai earthquake is a "precursory earthquake" induced by the Wenchuan earthquake.
After the 5.12 Wenchuan M_S 8.0 earthquake, an earthquake M_L 3.8 occurred at Binhai area of Jiangsu Province in 13 May 2008.It is noted whether the Binhai earthquake was induced by the Wenchuan earthquake, and whether it is a "induced foreshock" which may imply the occurrence of moderate-strong earthquake in the moderate or short period nearby the Binhai area.In order to enclose the two problems, this paper will discuss the next subjects: ① to count great shocks occurred in North-South Seismic Zone, Taiwan Province and Japan with M_S≥7.3, M_S≥7.3 and M_S≥7.5, respectively;② to count earthquakes M_L≥3.0 occurred in North China region within 3 days after the earthquakes mentioned in ①;③ to count earthquakes M_S≥5.0 occurring in 350 km around the epicenter of the earthquakes M_L≥3.0 mentioned in ② within a year after the great shocks mentioned in ①;④ to analyze the chain relations among the above three group earthquakes, that is, the predicting effect of the North China area based on A-F-B chain earthquake method in a particular condition. It is concluded that the limited and insufficient counts can not ensure the Binhai earthquake is a "precursory earthquake" induced by the Wenchuan earthquake.
引文
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Haberman R,Wyss M.Earthquake triggering during preparation for great earthquakes[J].G RL,1984:114．
Kanamori H.The nature of seismicity patterns before large earthquake[J].Earthquake prediction,1981:1-19．
Mogi K.Relationship between shallow and deep seismicity in the western Pacific region[J].Tectonophysics,1973,17:1-22．
Prozorov A G,Dziewonski A M.A method of studying variations in the clustering properties of earthquakes[J].JGR,1982,87:2829-2839．
陈文德.中国南北地震带1900年以来强震的时空分布特征及其预报意义[J].四川地震,1997,3:17-22．
雍幼予.中国南北地震带地震活动的丛集性研究[J].四川地震,1990,4:24-33．
赵根模,刁桂苓.诱发前震预报方法规范化研究//地震预报方法实用化研究文集[C].北京:学术出版社,1989．
赵根模.我国板内大地之间的一种联系--诱发作用[J].地震研究,1981,4(3) .
赵根模,刘喜兰.诱发前震的无力机制和前兆意义[J].中国地震,1987,3(sup).
Fedotov S.Long-and short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatke[J].Tectonophysics,1977,37(4) .
Haberman R,Wyss M.Earthquake triggering during preparation for great earthquakes[J].G RL,1984:114．
Kanamori H.The nature of seismicity patterns before large earthquake[J].Earthquake prediction,1981:1-19．
Mogi K.Relationship between shallow and deep seismicity in the western Pacific region[J].Tectonophysics,1973,17:1-22．
Prozorov A G,Dziewonski A M.A method of studying variations in the clustering properties of earthquakes[J].JGR,1982,87:2829-2839．
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