现有剪切波速判别方法对巴楚地震液化预测成功率分析
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摘要
以2003年新疆巴楚6.8级地震砂土液化场地调查和现场波速测试为基础,研究目前国内外5种典型的以剪切波速为指标的液化判别式的可行性和适用性问题。分析表明,目前的5种剪切波速液化判别式对于新疆巴楚地区均没有给出满意的结果,成功率只在36%~64%之间。烈度法对巴楚地震液化和非液化场地判别成功率均只有40%左右,且Ⅶ度区偏于危险,Ⅸ度区又偏于保守;5种方法基准值临界线与巴楚地震实际曲线均相差很大,Ⅶ度区均完全错判;需要深入研究巴楚地区的土性特征,建立新疆地区区域性液化判别方法。
Based on liquefaction survey of 2003 Xinjiang Bachu earthquake of Ms6.8 and in-situ shear wave velocity testing data,the feasibility and applicability of five typical liquefaction evaluation methods which use shear wave velocities as criteria are presented herein.Analysis results show that none of the five liquefaction evaluation methods can provide satisfactory result in Bachu area.The successful judging rates of site soil liquefaction are only 36% to 64%.The intensity method which is employed to evaluate liquefied and non-liquefied sites in Bachu area provides only 40% successful judging rates,and the method is risky in intensity VII area and conservative in intensity IX area.The critical lines of the five methods deviate greatly from the actual lines.In intensity VII area all the five methods incorrectly misjudge the site soil liquefaction.Further work has to be conducted to research the soil properties in Bachu area and to establish the regional liquefaction evaluation method in Xinjiang.
引文
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