基于风险决策和保险定价的桥梁颤振风险评估
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摘要
为了评估因桥梁颤振带来的经济风险,提出了一种全新的桥梁颤振风险评估方法。该方法基于一种已有的4变量桥梁颤振可靠度模型,先采用Monte Carlo方法计算桥梁颤振的失效概率,然后用货币的形式定量地刻画桥梁颤振的风险,并引入效用理论进行风险决策。最后,运用该方法对上海颗珠山斜拉桥进行了颤振风险分析。结果表明:该方法简单实用,所得的结果可以作为桥梁投资和保险定价的依据。
In order to assess the economic risk of bridge flutter,authors presented a new method of risk assessment analysis of bridge flutter.Firstly,based on an existed bridge flutter reliability model of four variables,bridge failure probability under flutter was calculated by Monte Carlo method.Then, the flutter risk was quantificationally described by means of money,and the utility theory was introduced into risk decision.Finally,this method was applied to the flutter risk assessment of Shanghai Kezhushan Cable-stayed Bridge,whose results could be used for decision making of bridge investment and insurance pricing.
In order to assess the economic risk of bridge flutter,authors presented a new method of risk assessment analysis of bridge flutter.Firstly,based on an existed bridge flutter reliability model of four variables,bridge failure probability under flutter was calculated by Monte Carlo method.Then, the flutter risk was quantificationally described by means of money,and the utility theory was introduced into risk decision.Finally,this method was applied to the flutter risk assessment of Shanghai Kezhushan Cable-stayed Bridge,whose results could be used for decision making of bridge investment and insurance pricing.
引文
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[2]沈蒲生,刘杨.水平地震作用下框支剪力墙结构的变形研究[J].建筑科学与工程学报,2005,22(1):58-63.SHEN Pu-sheng,LIU Yang.Distortion Research ofShear Wall Structure Supported on Frame UnderEarthquake Actions[J].Journal of Architecture andCivil Engineering,2005,22(1):58-63.
[3]史庆轩,杨文星,门进杰.单自由度体系非线性地震能量反应的计算[J].建筑科学与工程学报,2005,22(2):25-29.SHI Qing-xuan,YANG Wen-xing,MEN Jin-jie.Cal-culation of Seismic Energy Response for NonlinearSingle Degree of Freedom System[J].Journal of Ar-chitecture and Civil Engineering,2005,22(2):25-29.
[4]邵长江,吴永红,钱永久.混凝土桥梁结构非线性地震损伤演化[J].中国公路学报,2006,19(5):41-45.SHAO Chang-jiang,WU Yong-hong,QIAN Yong-jiu.Evolution of Nonlinear Seismic Damage of Con-crete Bridge Structure[J].China Journal of Highwayand Transport,2006,19(5):41-45.
[5]陈政清.斜拉索风雨振现场观测与振动控制[J].建筑科学与工程学报,2005,22(4):5-10.CHEN Zheng-qing.On-site Observation of Wind-rainInduced Vibration of Stay Cables and Its Control[J].Journal of Architecture and Civil Engineering,2005,22(4):5-10.
[6]易伟建,张颖.混凝土框架结构抗震设计的弯矩增大系数[J].建筑科学与工程学报,2006,23(2):46-51.YI Wei-jian,ZHANG Ying.Moment MagnificationFactor in Anti-seismic Design of Concrete FrameStructure[J].Journal of Architecture and Civil Engi-neering,2006,23(2):46-51.
[7]葛耀君.桥梁结构风振可靠性理论及其应用研究[D].上海:同济大学,1997.GE Yao-jun.Study of Reliability Theory of Wind In-duced Vibration of Bridge Structures and Its Applica-tions[D].Shanghai:Tongji University,1997.
[8]GE Y J,XIANG H F,TANKA H.Reliability Analy-sis of Bridge Flutter Under Extreme Winds[C]//IC-WE.Proc 10th ICWE.Copenhagen:ICWE,1999:879-884.
[9]GE Y J,XIANG H F,TANAKA H.Application of aReliability Analysis Model to Bridge Flutter UnderExtreme Winds[J].J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn,2000,86(2):155-168.
[10]THOFT-CHRISTENSEN P,BAKER M J.StructuralReliability Theory and Its Applications[M].Berlin:Springer,1982.
[11]BENJAMIN J R,CORNELL C A.Probability,Statis-tics and Decision for Civil Engineering[M].NewYork:McGraw-Hill,1970.
[12]项海帆,林志兴,鲍卫刚,等.公路桥梁抗风设计指南[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1996.XIANG Hai-fan,LIN Zhi-xing,BAO Wei-gang,et al.Wind Resistant Design Guide for Highway Bridges[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,1996.
[13]葛耀君,项海帆.桥梁结构颤振稳定的概率性评价[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2001,29(1):70-74.GE Yao-jun,XIANG Hai-fan.Probabilistic Assess-ment Study of Flutter Instability of Bridge Structures[J].Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science,2001,29(1):70-74.
[14]刘占国.利息理论[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2000.LIU Zhan-guo.Theory of Interest[M].Tianjin:Nan-kai University Press,2000.
[15]FABOZZI F J,MODIGLIANI F,FERRI M G,等.金融市场与机构通论[M].康卫华,译.大连:东北财经大学出版社,2000.FABOZZI F J,MODIGLIANI F,FERRI M G,et al.Foundations of Financial Markets and Institutions[M].Translated by KANG Wei-hua.Dalian:North-east Finance and Economic University Press,2000.
[16]邵宇.微观金融学及其数学基础[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.SHAO Yu.Microfinance and Its Mathematic Founda-tion[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2003.
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