道路交通事故灰色马尔可夫预测模型
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摘要
在道路交通事故灰色预测的基础上 ,引入马尔可夫链预测理论 ,建立道路交通事故灰色马尔可夫预测模型。道路交通事故灰色马尔可夫预测兼有灰色预测和马尔可夫链预测的优点 ,模型克服了随机波动性数据对道路交通事故预测精度的影响 ,拓宽了灰色预测的应用范围。实例计算证明 :道路交通事故灰色马尔可夫预测模型预测精度高于GM(1,1)模型预测精度 ,模型可以用于道路交通事故预测
Based on grey method of roads accidents forecast,the Markov chains forecast method is presented in this paper and the grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is built in this paper.The model has the merits of both grey forecasting and Markov chains forecasting which reduces random fluctuation of accident data affecting forecasting precision and widens the application scope of grey forecasting.The example shows that the precision of grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is better than that of grey model and the model can be used for road accidents forecast.
Based on grey method of roads accidents forecast,the Markov chains forecast method is presented in this paper and the grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is built in this paper.The model has the merits of both grey forecasting and Markov chains forecasting which reduces random fluctuation of accident data affecting forecasting precision and widens the application scope of grey forecasting.The example shows that the precision of grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is better than that of grey model and the model can be used for road accidents forecast.
引文
[1] 刘小明交通事故时间序列预测方法研究[J].中国公路学报,1995,8(增1):125-126
[2] 张启明灰色马尔可夫预测模型及在地震预报中的应用[J].地震学刊,1994,7(1):2729
[3] 袁嘉祖灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1991:120123
[2] 张启明灰色马尔可夫预测模型及在地震预报中的应用[J].地震学刊,1994,7(1):2729
[3] 袁嘉祖灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1991:120123
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