贝叶斯模型在房屋震害预测中的应用

英文篇名：APPLICATION OF BEIYES MODEL IN EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE PREDICTION OF BUILDINGS
中文刊名：高原地震
英文刊名：Platean Earthquake Research
作者：尹力峰 ; 李锰 ; 宋立军
英文作者：YIN Li-feng ; LI Meng ; SONG Li-jun (Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region ; Urumqi Xinjiang 830011 ; China)
中文关键词：震害预测 ; 贝叶斯模型 ; 连发地震事件
英文关键词：Earthquake damage prediction ; Beiyes model ; Continuous earthquake events
出版日期：2001-12-15
机构：新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆维吾尔自治区地震局新疆乌鲁木齐830011 ,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 ,新疆乌鲁木齐830011
年：2001
期：04
出版单位：高原地震

摘要

概率理论为大量工程应用中包含的不确定性分析及影响提供了数学依据。本文讨论贝叶斯模型在房屋震害预测中的应用。贝叶斯模型假定分布参数为未知的随机变量 ,充分利用主观判断和观测数据通过贝叶斯公式得到房屋震害概率的合理估计。以地震考察取得的房屋破坏资料为基础 ,举例说明了贝叶斯模型的实际应用。内容涉及到概率平均分布函数、贝叶斯估计及贝叶斯更新概率等重要概念。还讨论了 1次地震事件及连发地震事件的影响所基于贝叶斯模型建立的房屋震害矩阵适用于成丛型地震的震害预测
Probability theory provides mathematical basis to apply uncertain analysis to engineering. The application of Beiyes model in earthquake damage prediction of buildings is discussed in the paper.Beiyes model supposes distribution parameter is unknown random variable. It utilizes subjective judgement and objective basis to estimate earthquake damage probability of buildings through Beiyes theoretical formula. Based on earthquake damage of house obtained by earthquake investigation, the model is explained. Contents of the paper involves some concepts: average distributional function of probability, estimation of Beiyes, renew probability of Beiyes, etc. Earthquake damage probability matrix of established based on one and continuous events is applicable to like jungle earthquakes.

引文

李锰,等.新疆地震科学基金课题:喀什及其周围地区主要类型房屋和人员伤亡易损性矩阵的研究.1998.12.
    [1]　洪华生,等.工程规划与设计中的概率概念[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,1985.5.7.57～67.
    [2]　尹力峰,艾买堤,等.新疆阿图什6.9级地震典型震害及震害矩阵[J].工程抗震,1997,(2):41～43.
    [3]　胡伟华,尹力峰.新疆伽师强震群型地震震害分析[J].工程抗震,1997,(4):46～48.