不确定性校正对地震危险性分析结果的影响
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摘要
对现行地震危险性分析模型中的不确定性校正方法所涉及到的一些问题进行了讨论．以地震烈度的危险性分析为例，说明危险性曲线的衰减系数及不确定性大小是影响校正结果的主要因素．总的趋势是：对低烈度，校正后危险性有所降低，降低幅度达50％以上；对高烈度，校正后危险性有所提高，提高幅度可达数倍以上。
Some problems related to the uncertainty correction method in the present seismic hazard analysis model are discussed. Taking the hazard analysis of seismic intensity as a case, our study shows that the attenuation coefficient of risk curve and magnitude of uncertainty are the main factors to affect the corrected results. The general tendency is that the risk level will be decreased by more than 50% for lower intensity, while the risk level will be increased by several times for higher intensity after uncertainty correction.
Some problems related to the uncertainty correction method in the present seismic hazard analysis model are discussed. Taking the hazard analysis of seismic intensity as a case, our study shows that the attenuation coefficient of risk curve and magnitude of uncertainty are the main factors to affect the corrected results. The general tendency is that the risk level will be decreased by more than 50% for lower intensity, while the risk level will be increased by several times for higher intensity after uncertainty correction.
引文
1Shah,H.C.,鲍霭斌,董伟民.地震危险性分析中贝叶斯模型的意义及其应用.地震工程与工程振动,1982,2(4)
2 Der Kiureghian,A.and A.H-S.Aug(1977),A fault-rupture model for seismic risk analysis,Bull.Seism.Soc. Am,Vol.67,No.4, pp. 1173~1194
3国家核安全局,国家地震局.核安全法规HAF0101(1),《安全导则-核电厂厂址选择中的地震问题(一九九四年修 改).1994.4.6
2 Der Kiureghian,A.and A.H-S.Aug(1977),A fault-rupture model for seismic risk analysis,Bull.Seism.Soc. Am,Vol.67,No.4, pp. 1173~1194
3国家核安全局,国家地震局.核安全法规HAF0101(1),《安全导则-核电厂厂址选择中的地震问题(一九九四年修 改).1994.4.6
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