震源系统小震调制比（r＿m）和异常面积（Sr＿m）起伏加剧的时空特征与强震的中、短期预报
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摘要
本文对强震前震源系统的调制比ｒ＿ｍ和调制比异常面积Ｓｒ＿ｍ随时间变化的起伏加剧现象进行回顾性研究，得到下列研究结果：（１）强震前近源区以及中强震前近源区大多出现调制比ｒ＿ｍ的起伏加剧，并大多在起伏频次达三次时有大震或中强震发生。（２）大多数中、强地震前ｒ＿ｍ异常面积Ｓｒ＿ｍ围绕震源区呈现由小至大、由大至小的过程，因此引入最小异常面积Ｓｒ＿（ｍｉｎ）和最大异常面积Ｓｒ＿（ｍａｘ）之比γ作为中、短期预报指标，根据统计得到异常指标［γ］如下式某些震例在震前出现异常面积Ｓｒ＿ｍ起伏的加剧过程，初步认为是震源区周围调整单元调整能力较差导致的结果。（３）ｒ＿ｍ、Ｓｒ＿ｍ起伏加剧开始时间与震级有关，震级愈大，起伏加剧出现愈早。根据半年步长逐月滑动得到的ｒ＿ｍ－Ｔ图，起伏加剧开始至发震的时间与震级Ｍ的统计，得到如下关系（Ｔ以月计）Ｍ＝４．２９＋０．１１Ｔ（４）强震前场区异常一般呈现随机异常型、波动型和衰减型三种。若场区某统计区出现ｒ＿ｍ的三次起伏加剧时，说明该统计区未来有强震发生。（５）由自治系统和非自治系统原理初步解释了震前震源区周围调整区调制比ｒ＿ｍ及调制比异常面积Ｓｒ＿ｍ起伏现象的周期特征。
By studying the fluctuation intensification of the ratio of small earthquakes modulated(r_m)and the abnormal area of the ratio of small earthquakes modulated(Sr_m)in the earth-quake source system before strong earthquakes. The following results are gained:1.The fluctuation intensification of the ratio of small earthquakes modulated almostappears before strong earthquakes in the source and near source region or before mediumearthquakes in near source region and when the fluctuated times are three, the strongearthquake or mediutn earthquake will happen.2.r_m abnormal area(Sr_m)around source region shows the process from small to largearea and then,from large to small area before most.moderate earthquakes,therefore,we take the ratio of the minimum area of r_m anomaly to the maximum area of r_m anomaly asan index of the mid-short term earthquake prediction,according to statistics,the anomalyindex[λ]isλ=Sr_(min)/Sr_(max),[γ]=0.32+0.09 In some earthquakes,the Sr_m fluctuation intensificatiOn appears before earthquakes,this may be regarded as the result of weak adjusting ability of adjustment units around thesource region.3.The beginning time of r_m and Sr_m fluctuation intensification has a connection withmagnitude of earthquake,the bigger the magnitudes are,the earlier the fluctuation intensi-fication will appear.According to the statist.es of the time(t) from the beginning of Sr_mfluctuation intensification to earthquake occurrence and magnitude(M),the following for-mula is obtained:①Seismological Bureau of Qinghai Province.M=4.29+0.11t±0.33 4.There ordinarily appear three forms of r_m anomalies in the fiel dregion before strongearthquakes:random,fluctuating and declining.If there are three r_m fluctuation intensifica-tions,the strong earthquake will happen in the field.5.By using the principle of autonomous system and unautonomous system,the fluctu-ation of r_m and Sr_m adjustment region around the source before earthquake is explainedbriefly.
By studying the fluctuation intensification of the ratio of small earthquakes modulated(r_m)and the abnormal area of the ratio of small earthquakes modulated(Sr_m)in the earth-quake source system before strong earthquakes. The following results are gained:1.The fluctuation intensification of the ratio of small earthquakes modulated almostappears before strong earthquakes in the source and near source region or before mediumearthquakes in near source region and when the fluctuated times are three, the strongearthquake or mediutn earthquake will happen.2.r_m abnormal area(Sr_m)around source region shows the process from small to largearea and then,from large to small area before most.moderate earthquakes,therefore,we take the ratio of the minimum area of r_m anomaly to the maximum area of r_m anomaly asan index of the mid-short term earthquake prediction,according to statistics,the anomalyindex[λ]isλ=Sr_(min)/Sr_(max),[γ]=0.32+0.09 In some earthquakes,the Sr_m fluctuation intensificatiOn appears before earthquakes,this may be regarded as the result of weak adjusting ability of adjustment units around thesource region.3.The beginning time of r_m and Sr_m fluctuation intensification has a connection withmagnitude of earthquake,the bigger the magnitudes are,the earlier the fluctuation intensi-fication will appear.According to the statist.es of the time(t) from the beginning of Sr_mfluctuation intensification to earthquake occurrence and magnitude(M),the following for-mula is obtained:①Seismological Bureau of Qinghai Province.M=4.29+0.11t±0.33 4.There ordinarily appear three forms of r_m anomalies in the fiel dregion before strongearthquakes:random,fluctuating and declining.If there are three r_m fluctuation intensifica-tions,the strong earthquake will happen in the field.5.By using the principle of autonomous system and unautonomous system,the fluctu-ation of r_m and Sr_m adjustment region around the source before earthquake is explainedbriefly.
引文
1秦保燕，刘江峰．甘肃省及邻区强震前调制小震异常指标研究．地震预报方法实用化研究文集（地震专辑）．学术书刊出版社，1989．2辛如生．非平衡态热力学和耗散结构．北京：清华大学出版社，1986．3郭增建，秦保燕，李革平．未来灾害学．北京：地震出版社，1992．4郭增建，秦保燕，荣代潞．自治系统、非自治系统和地震孕育的组合模式，西北地震学报，1993，15（4）：7－11．
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