水库诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估系统开发研究
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摘要
从理论模型出发 ,通过系统需求分析 ,对水利水电工程及其周缘地区诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估系统的结构体系及其开发流程进行了分析与研究 ,在此基础上 ,完成了诱震危险性概率模型构建子系统、待评工程诱震危险性概率预测与评估子系统及其相应功能模块的开发 ,并对系统的主要功能进行了介绍 .
The theory and method of reservoir induced earthquake risk prediction and assessment in hydropower project and its neighboring area are briefly introduced. According to the system requirement analysis, the framework and developing flow of the system for reservoir induced earthquake risk prediction and assessment in hydropower project and its neighboring area are discussed. The main functions of the system such as probability model construction based on the data of environmental conditions and their corresponding earthquake activities and induced seismicity risk prediction of the candidate reservoir based on its environmental conditions data are described respectively.
The theory and method of reservoir induced earthquake risk prediction and assessment in hydropower project and its neighboring area are briefly introduced. According to the system requirement analysis, the framework and developing flow of the system for reservoir induced earthquake risk prediction and assessment in hydropower project and its neighboring area are discussed. The main functions of the system such as probability model construction based on the data of environmental conditions and their corresponding earthquake activities and induced seismicity risk prediction of the candidate reservoir based on its environmental conditions data are described respectively.
引文
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[2] 国家地震局地震研究所编.中国诱发地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1984.
[3] 李安然,王清云,韩晓光等.三峡水库诱发地震的总体环境组合条件[A].见:中国科学院三峡工程生态与环境科研项目领导小组编.长江三峡工程对生态与环境的影响及其对策研究论文集[C].北京:科学出版社,1987.552-556
[4] 虞庭林.水库区地壳稳定性与地震预测研究的途径和方法[J].国际地震动态,1995(5):1-4
[5] 张秋文,张勇传,王 乘等.数字流域整体构架及实现策略[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(3):4-7
[6] 马宗晋,张秋文,李安然等.基于数字流域的水利水电工程诱发地震定量预测与评估[J].水电能源科学,2001,19(3):8-11
[7] 张秋文,李安然,王清云等.水库及其周缘地区诱发地震危险性评定的一种模型及其应用[J].地震地质,1998,20(4):361-369
[8] 张秋文,李安然,王清云等.水库及其周缘地区诱发地震危险性评定方法及其软件系统研制[A].中国地震学会第七次学术讨论会论文摘要集[C].北京:地震出版社,1998.25-26
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