滇西区域水化观测台网近源场震兆特征
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摘要
在本文中，作者用变幅滑动平均、滑动残差、群体突跳率３种方法，对滇西地区水化观测台网建网以来的资料进行了系统的综合处理，并与邻近地区１０多次５级以上地震进行相关分析，结果表明，在台网内发生的地震之前，多数观测点及观测项目都有背景异常显示，异常持续时间长短及幅度大小与地震强度、震中距呈正相关。短期异常表现为群体突跳，当群体突跳率达峰值并发生转折后４０─５０天地震发生。该台网有较强的映震能力，各观测，点的异常与地震的对应率为６７％，观测要素异常与地震的对应率为５３％。一般映震范围小于１００ｋｍ。本文最后对滇西区域水化台网观测到的近源场地震信息进行了讨论。
In this paper,the authors made use of three methods,including slip-average with variableamplitude,slip-residual and massive abrupt rate,to carry out systematically comprehensiveprocessing for those data after groundwater chemistry network established in western Yunnanarea. The correlation analysis between above results and more than 10 M>5. 0 earthquakes inthe neighboring areas shows that this network has very good reflecting earthquake ability,theefficiency of station-point is 0.67 and the efficiency of station-item is 0.53. The generalresponse earthquake range is less than 100 km. Before earthquakes occurring within thenetwork,all station-items have appeared background anomalies,the earthquake will take placeafter all pionts go into anomaly turning stage. The length of the anomaly duration and themagnitude of the anomaly amplitude are positive correlation with intensity and epicentre dis-tance of the future earthquake. The short information is to be massive abrupt,about 40─50days after massive abrupt rate reached peak and turned,and then the earthquake will occur.Finally,we also discussed the near source field earthquake information observed by thegroundwater chemistry network in western Yunnan area.
In this paper,the authors made use of three methods,including slip-average with variableamplitude,slip-residual and massive abrupt rate,to carry out systematically comprehensiveprocessing for those data after groundwater chemistry network established in western Yunnanarea. The correlation analysis between above results and more than 10 M>5. 0 earthquakes inthe neighboring areas shows that this network has very good reflecting earthquake ability,theefficiency of station-point is 0.67 and the efficiency of station-item is 0.53. The generalresponse earthquake range is less than 100 km. Before earthquakes occurring within thenetwork,all station-items have appeared background anomalies,the earthquake will take placeafter all pionts go into anomaly turning stage. The length of the anomaly duration and themagnitude of the anomaly amplitude are positive correlation with intensity and epicentre dis-tance of the future earthquake. The short information is to be massive abrupt,about 40─50days after massive abrupt rate reached peak and turned,and then the earthquake will occur.Finally,we also discussed the near source field earthquake information observed by thegroundwater chemistry network in western Yunnan area.
引文
1张炜，等．水文地球化学地震前兆观测与预报，北京：地震出版社，19922蒋凤亮，等．地震水文地球化学前兆机理的研究．地震监测与预报方法清理成果汇编（地下水分册）．北京：地震出版社，1988
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