水库地震烈度衰减的研究
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摘要
水库地震由于具有震源浅、震级小但破坏较同等级的天然地震重的特点,其地震烈度衰减关系在水库地震灾害预测中有着十分重要的研究意义。然而,由于水库地震事件数量少,历史震例往往缺乏地面烈度调查资料,这给研究工作带来了相当大的难度。为了解决资料不足的问题,文中采用聚类分析的方法,从丰富的天然地震中选择可与水库地震灾害类比的震例,把其烈度资料引入衰减模型进行回归分析,得到了新的地震烈度衰减关系;并与已有的研究成果和天然地震的烈度衰减进行比较,证明了这种方法具有合理性,所得到的水库地震烈度在近场普遍比天然地震烈度高,但由于加入了天然地震资料使得结果比已有水库地震烈度衰减慢且震中烈度稍低。
Reservoir earthquakes are different from natural earthquakes because of their shallower depth and heavier damage under small magnitude.Therefore,results of damage loss assessment,using traditional models,would be underestimated,the reason of which is that intensity attenuation models for moderate magnitude natural earthquakes could not generate fit intensity especially in near field.Though the research on new attenuation for reservoir induced earthquakes has been carried out for over decades of years in China,there are still not enough cases to support the analysis.To resolve the problem,a proposal in this paper is introduced to search useful materials from amounts of natural earthquakes. We adopt a kind of clustering means,set three classified indices of magnitude,depth and epicenter intensity,and then put all the earthquakes together for classification.After settling the optimal clustering number,some natural earthquakes which could be considered with similar damage to buildings as that in reservoir earthquakes.If we gather enough cases about both types of earthquakes, this method would provide much more materials to regress parameters of attenuation models.At last, this paper shows a set of intensity attenuation curves for reservoir earthquake.While compared with other attenuation models,the new ones are definitely giving a higher intensity and faster attenuation. According to the practical materials' accuracy,new attenuation models should be correct while the magnitude is below Ms6 and the scope of disaster is less than 50 kilometers.
Reservoir earthquakes are different from natural earthquakes because of their shallower depth and heavier damage under small magnitude.Therefore,results of damage loss assessment,using traditional models,would be underestimated,the reason of which is that intensity attenuation models for moderate magnitude natural earthquakes could not generate fit intensity especially in near field.Though the research on new attenuation for reservoir induced earthquakes has been carried out for over decades of years in China,there are still not enough cases to support the analysis.To resolve the problem,a proposal in this paper is introduced to search useful materials from amounts of natural earthquakes. We adopt a kind of clustering means,set three classified indices of magnitude,depth and epicenter intensity,and then put all the earthquakes together for classification.After settling the optimal clustering number,some natural earthquakes which could be considered with similar damage to buildings as that in reservoir earthquakes.If we gather enough cases about both types of earthquakes, this method would provide much more materials to regress parameters of attenuation models.At last, this paper shows a set of intensity attenuation curves for reservoir earthquake.While compared with other attenuation models,the new ones are definitely giving a higher intensity and faster attenuation. According to the practical materials' accuracy,new attenuation models should be correct while the magnitude is below Ms6 and the scope of disaster is less than 50 kilometers.
引文
[1]孔宇阳,2009,水库地震烈度衰减规律的研究。
丁伯阳,蒋蓓,曹亮.2006.浙江省泰顺珊溪水库2.4-2.16地震的民房破坏调查研究[J].浙江工业大学学报,34(6):628-636. DING Bo-yang,JIANG Bei,CAO Liang.2006.The investigation on the resident houses damage in Shanxi reservoir earthquake of Feb 4th-Feb 16th[J].Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology,34(6):628-636(in Chinese).
高玉峰,谢康和,曾国熙.2000.中强地震区地震烈度和峰值加速度的衰减规律[J].浙江大学学报,34(4): 404-408. GAO Yu-feng,XIE Kang-he,ZENG Guo-xi.2000.The seismic attenuation regularities in the moderate-strong earthquake area[J].Journal of Zhejiang University,34(4):404-408(in Chinese).
郝敏,谢礼立,李伟.2007.基于砌体结构破坏损伤的地震烈度物理标准研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,27 (5):27-32. HAO Min,XIE Li-li,LI Wei.2007.Study on physical measure of seismic intensity based on damage to masonry structure[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,27(5):27-32(in Chinese).
杨清源,陈献程.1998.水库诱发地震的烈度特征[J].水利发电学报,2:21-25. YANG Qing-yuan,CHEN Xian-cheng.1998.Characteristics of intensity of reservoir induced seismicity[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2:21-25(in Chinese).
杨清源,胡毓良,陈献程,等.1996.国内外水库诱发地震目录[J].地震地质,18(4):453-461. YANG Qing-yuan,HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng,et al.1996.Catalogue of reservoir induced seismic events in the world[J].Seismology and Geology,18(4):453-461(in Chinese).
杨善林,李永森,胡笑旋,等.2006.K-means算法中的k值优化问题研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2:97- 101. YANG Shan-lin,Ll Yong-sen,HU Xiao-xuan,et al.2006.Optimizaton study on k value of K-means algorithm[J]. Systems Engineering Theory & Practice,2:97-10(in Chinese).
于海英,公茂盛,金波,等.2006.水库地震的地震动特性[J].自然灾害学报,15(5):188-193. YU Hai-ying,GONG Mao-sheng,JIN Bo,et al.2006.Characteristic of ground motion of reservoir induced earthquake [J].Journal of Natural Disasters,15(5):188-193(in Chinese).
王继,俞言祥.2008.华中、华南中强震地区地震烈度衰减关系研究[J].赈灾防御技术,3(1):20-26. WANG Ji,YU Yan-xiang.2008.Seismic intensity attenuation law in moderate seismic intense zone of central and southern China[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,3(1):20-26(in Chinese).
中国地震局,国家统计局.1996.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990-1995)[M].北京:地震出版社. China Earthquake Administration,National Bureau of Statistics of China.1996.Compilation of Earthquake Disaster Damage Estimation of Mainland China(1990-1995)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
中国地震局监测预报司.2001.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996-2000)[M].北京:地震出版社. Department of Monitoring and Prediction of China Earthquake Administration.2001.Compilation of Earthquake Disaster Damage Estimation of Mainland China(1996-2000)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
丁伯阳,蒋蓓,曹亮.2006.浙江省泰顺珊溪水库2.4-2.16地震的民房破坏调查研究[J].浙江工业大学学报,34(6):628-636. DING Bo-yang,JIANG Bei,CAO Liang.2006.The investigation on the resident houses damage in Shanxi reservoir earthquake of Feb 4th-Feb 16th[J].Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology,34(6):628-636(in Chinese).
高玉峰,谢康和,曾国熙.2000.中强地震区地震烈度和峰值加速度的衰减规律[J].浙江大学学报,34(4): 404-408. GAO Yu-feng,XIE Kang-he,ZENG Guo-xi.2000.The seismic attenuation regularities in the moderate-strong earthquake area[J].Journal of Zhejiang University,34(4):404-408(in Chinese).
郝敏,谢礼立,李伟.2007.基于砌体结构破坏损伤的地震烈度物理标准研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,27 (5):27-32. HAO Min,XIE Li-li,LI Wei.2007.Study on physical measure of seismic intensity based on damage to masonry structure[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,27(5):27-32(in Chinese).
杨清源,陈献程.1998.水库诱发地震的烈度特征[J].水利发电学报,2:21-25. YANG Qing-yuan,CHEN Xian-cheng.1998.Characteristics of intensity of reservoir induced seismicity[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2:21-25(in Chinese).
杨清源,胡毓良,陈献程,等.1996.国内外水库诱发地震目录[J].地震地质,18(4):453-461. YANG Qing-yuan,HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng,et al.1996.Catalogue of reservoir induced seismic events in the world[J].Seismology and Geology,18(4):453-461(in Chinese).
杨善林,李永森,胡笑旋,等.2006.K-means算法中的k值优化问题研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2:97- 101. YANG Shan-lin,Ll Yong-sen,HU Xiao-xuan,et al.2006.Optimizaton study on k value of K-means algorithm[J]. Systems Engineering Theory & Practice,2:97-10(in Chinese).
于海英,公茂盛,金波,等.2006.水库地震的地震动特性[J].自然灾害学报,15(5):188-193. YU Hai-ying,GONG Mao-sheng,JIN Bo,et al.2006.Characteristic of ground motion of reservoir induced earthquake [J].Journal of Natural Disasters,15(5):188-193(in Chinese).
王继,俞言祥.2008.华中、华南中强震地区地震烈度衰减关系研究[J].赈灾防御技术,3(1):20-26. WANG Ji,YU Yan-xiang.2008.Seismic intensity attenuation law in moderate seismic intense zone of central and southern China[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,3(1):20-26(in Chinese).
中国地震局,国家统计局.1996.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990-1995)[M].北京:地震出版社. China Earthquake Administration,National Bureau of Statistics of China.1996.Compilation of Earthquake Disaster Damage Estimation of Mainland China(1990-1995)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
中国地震局监测预报司.2001.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996-2000)[M].北京:地震出版社. Department of Monitoring and Prediction of China Earthquake Administration.2001.Compilation of Earthquake Disaster Damage Estimation of Mainland China(1996-2000)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
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