关于地震前兆的判据问题
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摘要
地震前兆是地震预报的基础,这个基础是由一些个案构成的。应该把地震前兆研究放在地震预报研究之前。对地震前兆的识别需要判据。不能把权威学者的只言片语或者流行的假说当作判别地震前兆的最终凭据,而且目前不具备进行地震前兆统计的基本条件。综合人们以往的认识,识别地震前兆异常有3个自然判据:1)有正常背景;2)非干扰影响;3)与地震相关。其中,与地震相关是核心。可靠的地震前兆判定需要精确的观测资料。对地震前兆判据的研究对制定地震研究规划和观测规范都有指导作用。
The research on earthquake precursors is the foundation of earthquake forecast,but it is composed of a number of careful case studies low.The research on earthquake precursor must be put in advance of the attempt of earthquake forecast.Criterion is needed for the judgment of a possible earthquake precursor.Neither any academic authority nor any prevailing hypothesis can give a terminal conclusion.The cases are not yet as enough for credible statistics.Instead,a natural procedure are adopted to identify the anomalous changes in observation,in which one has to 1) demonstrate a normal background,2) exclude interfering influences,and 3) show the relevance to the earthquake.The earthquake-relevance plays the key role.Reliable earthquake precursors require accurate observations.The demand of research on earthquake precursor is that a priority in planning,as well as drafting technical standards,future observations aiming at earthquake forecast should be given.
The research on earthquake precursors is the foundation of earthquake forecast,but it is composed of a number of careful case studies low.The research on earthquake precursor must be put in advance of the attempt of earthquake forecast.Criterion is needed for the judgment of a possible earthquake precursor.Neither any academic authority nor any prevailing hypothesis can give a terminal conclusion.The cases are not yet as enough for credible statistics.Instead,a natural procedure are adopted to identify the anomalous changes in observation,in which one has to 1) demonstrate a normal background,2) exclude interfering influences,and 3) show the relevance to the earthquake.The earthquake-relevance plays the key role.Reliable earthquake precursors require accurate observations.The demand of research on earthquake precursor is that a priority in planning,as well as drafting technical standards,future observations aiming at earthquake forecast should be given.
引文
1 Wang K,et al.Predicting the 1975 Haicheng earthquake[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,2006,96:757-795.
2 Geller R J,et al.Earthquakes cannot be predicted[J].Sci-ence,1997,275:1 616-1 617.
3 Wyss M.Cannot earthquakes be predicted?[J].Science,1997,278:487-488.
4 Johnston M J S,et al.Continuous borehole strain and porepressure in the near field of the 28 September 2004M6.0Parkfield,California,earthquake:implications for nuclea-tion,fault response,earthquake prediction,and tremor[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,2006,96:S56-S72.
5国家地震局科技监测司.大震监测与预报方法清理成果汇编(综合预报分册)[M].北京:地震出版社,1989.
6中国地震局预测预防司.大陆地震预报的方法和理论——中国“八五”地震预报研究进展[M].北京:地震出版社,1998.
7中国地震局地震预测研究所,中国地震台网中心,中国地震学会.中国地震预报探索[M].北京:地震出版社,2008.
8陆远忠,等.地震中短期预报的动态图像方法[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
9杨又陵,等.2001年11月14日昆仑山口西M8.1地震前的缓慢地震事件[J].国际地震动态,2003,(9):1-4.
10王庆良,等.理解前兆异常变化机理和地震短临前兆[J].国际地震动态,2005,(5):131-144.
11陈德福.潮汐形变前驱波的时空特征[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,(2):24-30.
12沈正康.关于地震预报研究发展战略的思考[J].国际地震动态,2005,5:69-73.
13 Kanamori Hand Cipar J J.Focal process of the great Chil-ean earthquake on May 22,1960[J].Physics of the Earthand Planetary Interiors,1974,9:128-136.
14周龙寿,等.用小波方法系统检验强震“前驱波”[J].地震学报,2009,31(1):1-12.
15周龙寿,等.用中国钻孔应变台网资料检验大震“前驱波”[J].地震,2009,29(3):67-78.
16 Wyss M and Habermann R E.Precursory seismic quies-cence[J].PAGEOPH,1988,126(2-4):319-332.
17 Mogi K.Some features of recent seismic activity in andnear Japan(2),activity before and after great earthquakes[J].Bull.Earthq.Res.Inst.,Univ.Tokyo,1969,47:395-417.
18 Kanamori H.The nature of seismicity patterns before largeearthquakes[A].In:Earthquake Prediction(eds.D.W.Simpson and P.G.Richards)[C].Maurice Ewing Series(Amer.Geophys.Union 4),1981,1-19.
19 Paul A.Reasenberg and Mark V.Matthews,precursoryseismic quiescence:a preliminary assessment of the hy-pothesis[J].PAGEOPH,1988,126(5):2-4.
20 Wyss M and Booth D C.The IASPEI procedure for the e-valuation of earthquake precursors[J].Geophys.J.Int.,1997,131:423-424.
21 Wyss M.Second round of evaluations of proposed earth-quake precursors[J].PAGEOPH,1997,149:3-16.
22李茂玮.乌恰7.4级地震的土层应力前兆[J].内陆地震,1987,1(1):77-83.
23 Qiu Z H,et al.On the cause of ground stress tensilep pul-ses observed before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,1988,88:989-994.
24邱泽华,周龙寿,池顺良.用超限率分析法研究汶川地震的前兆应变变化[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2009,(4):1-4,9.
25丁国瑜,梅世蓉,马宗晋.地震预报方法[A].见:国际地震预报讨论会论文选(丁国瑜和马宗晋编)[C].北京:地震出版社,1981,174-179.
2 Geller R J,et al.Earthquakes cannot be predicted[J].Sci-ence,1997,275:1 616-1 617.
3 Wyss M.Cannot earthquakes be predicted?[J].Science,1997,278:487-488.
4 Johnston M J S,et al.Continuous borehole strain and porepressure in the near field of the 28 September 2004M6.0Parkfield,California,earthquake:implications for nuclea-tion,fault response,earthquake prediction,and tremor[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,2006,96:S56-S72.
5国家地震局科技监测司.大震监测与预报方法清理成果汇编(综合预报分册)[M].北京:地震出版社,1989.
6中国地震局预测预防司.大陆地震预报的方法和理论——中国“八五”地震预报研究进展[M].北京:地震出版社,1998.
7中国地震局地震预测研究所,中国地震台网中心,中国地震学会.中国地震预报探索[M].北京:地震出版社,2008.
8陆远忠,等.地震中短期预报的动态图像方法[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
9杨又陵,等.2001年11月14日昆仑山口西M8.1地震前的缓慢地震事件[J].国际地震动态,2003,(9):1-4.
10王庆良,等.理解前兆异常变化机理和地震短临前兆[J].国际地震动态,2005,(5):131-144.
11陈德福.潮汐形变前驱波的时空特征[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,(2):24-30.
12沈正康.关于地震预报研究发展战略的思考[J].国际地震动态,2005,5:69-73.
13 Kanamori Hand Cipar J J.Focal process of the great Chil-ean earthquake on May 22,1960[J].Physics of the Earthand Planetary Interiors,1974,9:128-136.
14周龙寿,等.用小波方法系统检验强震“前驱波”[J].地震学报,2009,31(1):1-12.
15周龙寿,等.用中国钻孔应变台网资料检验大震“前驱波”[J].地震,2009,29(3):67-78.
16 Wyss M and Habermann R E.Precursory seismic quies-cence[J].PAGEOPH,1988,126(2-4):319-332.
17 Mogi K.Some features of recent seismic activity in andnear Japan(2),activity before and after great earthquakes[J].Bull.Earthq.Res.Inst.,Univ.Tokyo,1969,47:395-417.
18 Kanamori H.The nature of seismicity patterns before largeearthquakes[A].In:Earthquake Prediction(eds.D.W.Simpson and P.G.Richards)[C].Maurice Ewing Series(Amer.Geophys.Union 4),1981,1-19.
19 Paul A.Reasenberg and Mark V.Matthews,precursoryseismic quiescence:a preliminary assessment of the hy-pothesis[J].PAGEOPH,1988,126(5):2-4.
20 Wyss M and Booth D C.The IASPEI procedure for the e-valuation of earthquake precursors[J].Geophys.J.Int.,1997,131:423-424.
21 Wyss M.Second round of evaluations of proposed earth-quake precursors[J].PAGEOPH,1997,149:3-16.
22李茂玮.乌恰7.4级地震的土层应力前兆[J].内陆地震,1987,1(1):77-83.
23 Qiu Z H,et al.On the cause of ground stress tensilep pul-ses observed before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,1988,88:989-994.
24邱泽华,周龙寿,池顺良.用超限率分析法研究汶川地震的前兆应变变化[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2009,(4):1-4,9.
25丁国瑜,梅世蓉,马宗晋.地震预报方法[A].见:国际地震预报讨论会论文选(丁国瑜和马宗晋编)[C].北京:地震出版社,1981,174-179.
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