基于概率的桥梁结构地震危害性分析
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摘要
在考虑结构能力和地震作用下结构需求两个方面的不确定的基础上提出一个基于概率的桥梁结构地震危害性分析方法。该方法把基于概率的地震危害性分析这个复杂的问题,在全概率理论的基础上分割成为地震危险性分析、结构的地震响应分析和破坏与损失分析3个主要的步骤,且地震危害性分析的构成被认为是在参数之间的条件概率是独立的和离散的Markov过程,进而在严格的和一致的状态中推导结构在特定地震危险性水平下的年平均达到或超过指定极限状态的解析表达式。另外,通过提出的方法对一个三跨连续刚构桥结构在特定地震环境下的地震危害性进行研究,结果表明该方法对桥梁结构的地震危害性分析具有适用性,是一种评价地震作用下桥梁结构性能的有效工具。
A method for probabilistic seismic risk assessment (PSRA) of bridge structures is developed, considering the uncertainty of structural capacity and seismic demand. The framework utilizes the Total Probability Theorem (TPT) to divide the complicated problem into three main stages: seismic hazard analysis, structural analysis and damage analysis. the framework assumes that these stages are independent and discrete Markov processes, where the conditional probabilities between parameters are independent, making it as a robust methodology for performance-based earthquake study of the logical elements of the processes in a rigorous and consistent manner. An analytical expression is presented based on total probability theory to describe the mean annual rate of structural performance level reaching or exceeding a specific limit state, and the analytical solutions are adopted to analyze the seismic risk of a three-span stiff-frame bridge in a specific hazard environment,the result of which shows that the recommended method is applicable for seismic risk analysis, and PSRA is an effective tool for assessment of the seismic performance.
A method for probabilistic seismic risk assessment (PSRA) of bridge structures is developed, considering the uncertainty of structural capacity and seismic demand. The framework utilizes the Total Probability Theorem (TPT) to divide the complicated problem into three main stages: seismic hazard analysis, structural analysis and damage analysis. the framework assumes that these stages are independent and discrete Markov processes, where the conditional probabilities between parameters are independent, making it as a robust methodology for performance-based earthquake study of the logical elements of the processes in a rigorous and consistent manner. An analytical expression is presented based on total probability theory to describe the mean annual rate of structural performance level reaching or exceeding a specific limit state, and the analytical solutions are adopted to analyze the seismic risk of a three-span stiff-frame bridge in a specific hazard environment,the result of which shows that the recommended method is applicable for seismic risk analysis, and PSRA is an effective tool for assessment of the seismic performance.
引文
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[14]Medina R.Seismic demands for non-deteriorating frame structures and their dependence on ground motions[D].Stanford:Stanford University,2002
[15]李新乐.近断层区桥梁结构的设计地震与抗震性能的研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2004(Li Xinle.Study on earthquake and seismic performance of bridge in near-fault areas[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2004(in Chinese))
[16]Vamvatsikos D,Cornell C A.Incremental dynamic analysis[J].Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics,2002,31(3):491-514
[17]Singhal A,Kiremidjian A S.Method for probabilistic evaluation of seismic structural damage[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,ASCE,1996,122(12):1459-1467
[18]Aslani H,Miranda E.Probabilistic response assessment for building-specific loss estimation[R].Berkeley,USA:University of California,2003
[19]Mackie K,Stojadinovic B.Fragility curves for reinforced concrete highway overpass bridges[C]//Proceedings of13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering.Vancouver,2004
[2]Collins K R,Wen Y K,Foutch D A.Dual-level design:a reliability-based methodology[J].Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics,1996,25(12):1433-1467
[3]Shome N.Probabilistic seismic demand analysis of nonlinear structures[D].Stanford:Stanford University,1999
[4]Jalayer F.Direct probabilistic seismic analysis:implementing nonlinear dynamic assessments[D].Stanford:Stanford University,2003
[5]Yun S Y,Hamburger R O,Cornell C A.Seismic performance evaluation for steel moment frames[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,ASCE,2002,128(4):534-545
[6]Karim K R,Yamazaki F.Asimplified method of constructing fragility curves for highway bridges[J].Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics,2003,32(10):1603-1626
[7]JTG D63—2007公路桥涵地基与基础设计规范[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2007(JTG D63—2007Code for design of ground base and foundation of highway bridges and culverts[S].Beijing:China Communication Press,2007(in Chinese))
[8]王建民,朱晞.圆截面RC桥墩曲率极限状态和延性的概率分析[J].土木工程学报,2006,39(12):88-94(Wang Jianmin,Zhu Xi.Probability analysis of the curvature limit state and ductility of circular RC bridge piers[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2006,39(12):88-94(in Chinese))
[9]Gardoni P.Probabilistic models and fragility estimates for structural components and systems[D].Berkeley:University of California,2002
[10]GB50011—2001建筑抗震设计规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2001(GB50011—2001Code for seismic design of buildings[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2001(in Chinese))
[11]马玉宏.基于性态的抗震设防标准研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2000
[12]Shinozuka M,Feng MQ,Kim HK,et al.Nonlinear static procedure for fragility curve development[J].Journal of Engineering Mechanics,2000,126(12):1287-1295
[13]Zhu Xi,Wang Jianmin.Evaluation of seismic risk:application to viaducts in China[C]//Proceedings of the8th U.S.National Conference on Earthquake Engineering.San Francisco,California,2006
[14]Medina R.Seismic demands for non-deteriorating frame structures and their dependence on ground motions[D].Stanford:Stanford University,2002
[15]李新乐.近断层区桥梁结构的设计地震与抗震性能的研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2004(Li Xinle.Study on earthquake and seismic performance of bridge in near-fault areas[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2004(in Chinese))
[16]Vamvatsikos D,Cornell C A.Incremental dynamic analysis[J].Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics,2002,31(3):491-514
[17]Singhal A,Kiremidjian A S.Method for probabilistic evaluation of seismic structural damage[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,ASCE,1996,122(12):1459-1467
[18]Aslani H,Miranda E.Probabilistic response assessment for building-specific loss estimation[R].Berkeley,USA:University of California,2003
[19]Mackie K,Stojadinovic B.Fragility curves for reinforced concrete highway overpass bridges[C]//Proceedings of13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering.Vancouver,2004
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