地震活动的分幕研究及其我国主要地震区带未来十年的趋势预测
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摘要
地震学者认为,在地震活动区一个较长的地震活动期里,地震群体活动的强度有一个发展变化的过程。笔者认为在一个地震活动期里,不仅地震群体活动在强度上有一个变化过程,而且在地震活动期的各个阶段中地震活跃幕和平静幕的持续时间也可能会有较显著的不同。基于这一思想,文中研究了华北地震区、我国西部及其邻区以及全国26个地震带的地震幕式活动。研究结果表明,华北地震区、我国西部及其邻区以及全国大部分地震带,在一个较长的地震活动期里,随着地震活跃幕强度的变化,活跃幕的持续时间和平静幕的持续时间通常有两种变化形式。第一种形式是当地震活跃幕强度逐渐加大时,活跃幕的持续时间一般也逐渐增长,而平静幕的持续时间逐渐缩短;第二种变化形式是当地震活跃幕强度逐渐减弱时,活跃幕的持续时间一般也逐渐缩短,而平静幕的持续时间逐渐增长。对华北地震区和我国西部及其邻区的地震分幕现象应用灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型作了拟合,对全国26个地震带的分幕现象作了定性研究。并根据上述研究结果对这些地震区、带未来十年的地震趋势进行了预测。
Seismologists think that there is a development and change on the group intensity of earthquake activity during a longer seismically active period in a seismically active area. Authors think further that the duration time of seismically active episodes and quiescence episodes may be quite different in different stages of seismically active period. Based on this idea, authors studied the episodic activity of earthquakes in North China, the western past of China and its vicinity and 26 earthquake zones in the country. The results show that there is an obvious change of the duration time of active episodes and quiescence episodes according to the intensity change of seismically active episodes in a longer seismically active period in North China, the western part of China and its vicinity . There are usually two kinds of changes. The first one is that the duration time of active episodes gets longer and the time of quiescencs episodes gets shorter with strengthening of intensity of the active episodes. The second one is the time of active episodes gets shorter and the time of quiescence episodes gets longer with weakening the active episodes. Authors fit the division of earthquake episodes in North China and the western part of China and its vicinity using GM (1. 1) model of Grey System theory, and studied qualitatively the division of the earthquake episodes of 26 earthquake zones in the country. Prediction of seismic tendency in the coming ten years in these seismic areas and zones has been made based on the above-mentioned research results.
Seismologists think that there is a development and change on the group intensity of earthquake activity during a longer seismically active period in a seismically active area. Authors think further that the duration time of seismically active episodes and quiescence episodes may be quite different in different stages of seismically active period. Based on this idea, authors studied the episodic activity of earthquakes in North China, the western past of China and its vicinity and 26 earthquake zones in the country. The results show that there is an obvious change of the duration time of active episodes and quiescence episodes according to the intensity change of seismically active episodes in a longer seismically active period in North China, the western part of China and its vicinity . There are usually two kinds of changes. The first one is that the duration time of active episodes gets longer and the time of quiescencs episodes gets shorter with strengthening of intensity of the active episodes. The second one is the time of active episodes gets shorter and the time of quiescence episodes gets longer with weakening the active episodes. Authors fit the division of earthquake episodes in North China and the western part of China and its vicinity using GM (1. 1) model of Grey System theory, and studied qualitatively the division of the earthquake episodes of 26 earthquake zones in the country. Prediction of seismic tendency in the coming ten years in these seismic areas and zones has been made based on the above-mentioned research results.
引文
[1] 马宗晋,张郢珍,汪成民,等.中国九大地震.北京:地震出版社,1982．
[2] Mogi K. Active periods in the world's chief seismic belts.Tectonophysics,1974,22(3-4) .
[3] 邓聚龙.灰色系统.北京:国防工业出版社,1983．
[2] Mogi K. Active periods in the world's chief seismic belts.Tectonophysics,1974,22(3-4) .
[3] 邓聚龙.灰色系统.北京:国防工业出版社,1983．
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