中-长期地震预测方法概率增益的评估
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摘要
对各种不同时空尺度地震预测方法的概率增益K的评估，是应用地震预测综合概率增益模型的基本研究内容之一。各种尺度地震预测方法可分为空间增益、时间增益和时空增益三种类型。初步研究了概率增益K的评估方法，给出由预测状态概率评估概率增益K的关系，并得出地震预测方法的R值评分与概率增益K的关系。从概率增益模型的角度看，在现阶段作出较好的中-长期地展综合预测是有可能的。
The assessment of probabllity gains K of earthquake prediction methods with different time and space scales is one of basic studies on synthetical probability gain model of earth-quake prediction. The earthquake prediction methods with different time and space scales can be divlded into tree types ,i. e. time gain, space gain and time-space gain. In this pa-per, the assessment methods of probability gains are studied, the relations between predic-tion state probability and probability gain and between prediction R value and probability gain are given. On the basis of synthetical probability gain model, it is possible to make the better medium- and long term earthquake predictions at present time.
The assessment of probabllity gains K of earthquake prediction methods with different time and space scales is one of basic studies on synthetical probability gain model of earth-quake prediction. The earthquake prediction methods with different time and space scales can be divlded into tree types ,i. e. time gain, space gain and time-space gain. In this pa-per, the assessment methods of probability gains are studied, the relations between predic-tion state probability and probability gain and between prediction R value and probability gain are given. On the basis of synthetical probability gain model, it is possible to make the better medium- and long term earthquake predictions at present time.
引文
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2金学申.华北地区2005年前强震危险区预测。见:国家地震局科技发展司编.中国大陆2005年前强震危险性预测研究.北京:地震出版社,1997.269～279.
3许绍燮.地震预报能力评分.见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化文集(地震学专集).北京:地震出版社,1989.586～590.
4国家地震局科技监测司编.地震学分析预报方法指南.北京:地震出版社,1990.7～65.
5张立人.十年尺度强震危险区的不精确推理预测方法讨论.地震,1996,16(3):263～270.
6戴英华,李淑莲,孙清杰.唐山地震的超晚期强余震估计.华北地震科学,1997,15(4):1～9.
2金学申.华北地区2005年前强震危险区预测。见:国家地震局科技发展司编.中国大陆2005年前强震危险性预测研究.北京:地震出版社,1997.269～279.
3许绍燮.地震预报能力评分.见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化文集(地震学专集).北京:地震出版社,1989.586～590.
4国家地震局科技监测司编.地震学分析预报方法指南.北京:地震出版社,1990.7～65.
5张立人.十年尺度强震危险区的不精确推理预测方法讨论.地震,1996,16(3):263～270.
6戴英华,李淑莲,孙清杰.唐山地震的超晚期强余震估计.华北地震科学,1997,15(4):1～9.
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