中国东部史前地震事件的识别问题
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摘要
中国东部地区气候湿润,物理化学风化作用强烈,加上地震周期长,人类活动频繁,地质事件遗迹难寻;另一方面,东部地区经济蓬勃发展,建(构)筑物和公众地震安全要求攀升。本文为解决这一日益尖锐矛盾作了相应综述和分析,并提出了一些建议:从经验预报统计样本局限性分析入手,综述史前地震识别标志和事件时序的分析研究现状,在此基础上提出了中国东部地区史前地震事件强化研究思路,即充分利用大规模考古发掘和工程所揭露的机遇,抢救性编录、分析。同时与考古、地质等相关部门联手,反演并重构全新世以来天然变形事件时序,用于弥补经验性预报的样本局限,从而科学预测地震趋势。作者的初步实践表明,这一思路是可行的,通过持之以恒的努力,有望达到预期目标。
Humid climate, strong physical and chemical weathering action, long earthquake reoccurrence, and frequent human activity make it difficult to find prehistoric earthquake event relics in eastern China. In this paper, we reviewed the recent development in prehistoric earthquake study in China and abroad, analyzed several case studies in archeological and geological fields, and then pointed out some key work that plays important role in prehistoric earthquake study in eastern China. Such work includes: taking full advantages of archeology disentombbing and engineering exposure cosmically, recording and analyzing as soon as possible, and rebuilding the sequence of natural deformation event.
Humid climate, strong physical and chemical weathering action, long earthquake reoccurrence, and frequent human activity make it difficult to find prehistoric earthquake event relics in eastern China. In this paper, we reviewed the recent development in prehistoric earthquake study in China and abroad, analyzed several case studies in archeological and geological fields, and then pointed out some key work that plays important role in prehistoric earthquake study in eastern China. Such work includes: taking full advantages of archeology disentombbing and engineering exposure cosmically, recording and analyzing as soon as possible, and rebuilding the sequence of natural deformation event.
引文
黄伟琼,李文香,曹学峰,1994. 中国大陆地震资料完整性研究. 地震学报,16(4):423—432.
姚大全,2004. 活动断层周期性粘滑变形的宏观和微观证据. 国际地震动态,4 期:6—10.
田中琢·佐原真,1994. 考古学の散步道.东京:岩波书店.
叶茂林,2006. 史前灾难——喇家村史前遗址考古. 大自然探索,2 期:64—71.
John W.B. and Terry Katzer, 1990. Timing of late Quaternary faulting in the 1954 Dixie Valley earthquake area, central Nevada. Geology, 18 (7): 622—625.
Michael Schnellmann, Flavio S.A., Domenico Giardini, Judith A.M. and Steven N.W., 2002. Prehistoric earthquake history revealed by lacustrine slump deposits. Geology, 30 (12): 1131—1134.
Michael Strasser, Flavio S.A., Donat F?h, Domenico Giardini and Michael Schnellmann, 2006. Magnitudes and source areas of large prehistoric northern Alpine earthquakes revealed by slope failures in lakes. Geology, 34 (12): 1005—1008.
Sieh K., 1978. Pre-historic large earthquakes produced by slip on the San Andreas Fault at Pallett Creek, California. J. Geophys. Res., 83:3907—3939.
Sukhija B.S., Rao M.N., Reddy D.V., Nagabhushanam P., Hussain S., Chadha R.K. and Gupta H.K., 1999. Paleoliquefaction evidence and periodicity of large prehistoric earthquakes in Shillong Plateau, India. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 167 (3): 269—282.
Susan Olig, Martha Eppes, Steven Forman, David Love and Bruce Allen, 2004. Gallery of Geology—Prehistoric
earthquake ruptures on the Hubbell Spring fault and implications for seismic hazards south of Albuquerque on the Hubbell Spring fault. New Mexico Geology,26 (1): 34—36.
Thorson, Robert M., Clayton, Wilson S., Seeber, Leonardo, 1986. Geologic evidence for a large prehistoric earthquake in eastern Connecticut. Geology, 14 ( 6): 463.
Tuttle M.P., J. Collier L.W., Wolf and R.H. Lafferty, 1999. New evidence for a large earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone between A.D. 1400 and 1670. Geology, 27: 7771—7774.
姚大全,2004. 活动断层周期性粘滑变形的宏观和微观证据. 国际地震动态,4 期:6—10.
田中琢·佐原真,1994. 考古学の散步道.东京:岩波书店.
叶茂林,2006. 史前灾难——喇家村史前遗址考古. 大自然探索,2 期:64—71.
John W.B. and Terry Katzer, 1990. Timing of late Quaternary faulting in the 1954 Dixie Valley earthquake area, central Nevada. Geology, 18 (7): 622—625.
Michael Schnellmann, Flavio S.A., Domenico Giardini, Judith A.M. and Steven N.W., 2002. Prehistoric earthquake history revealed by lacustrine slump deposits. Geology, 30 (12): 1131—1134.
Michael Strasser, Flavio S.A., Donat F?h, Domenico Giardini and Michael Schnellmann, 2006. Magnitudes and source areas of large prehistoric northern Alpine earthquakes revealed by slope failures in lakes. Geology, 34 (12): 1005—1008.
Sieh K., 1978. Pre-historic large earthquakes produced by slip on the San Andreas Fault at Pallett Creek, California. J. Geophys. Res., 83:3907—3939.
Sukhija B.S., Rao M.N., Reddy D.V., Nagabhushanam P., Hussain S., Chadha R.K. and Gupta H.K., 1999. Paleoliquefaction evidence and periodicity of large prehistoric earthquakes in Shillong Plateau, India. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 167 (3): 269—282.
Susan Olig, Martha Eppes, Steven Forman, David Love and Bruce Allen, 2004. Gallery of Geology—Prehistoric
earthquake ruptures on the Hubbell Spring fault and implications for seismic hazards south of Albuquerque on the Hubbell Spring fault. New Mexico Geology,26 (1): 34—36.
Thorson, Robert M., Clayton, Wilson S., Seeber, Leonardo, 1986. Geologic evidence for a large prehistoric earthquake in eastern Connecticut. Geology, 14 ( 6): 463.
Tuttle M.P., J. Collier L.W., Wolf and R.H. Lafferty, 1999. New evidence for a large earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone between A.D. 1400 and 1670. Geology, 27: 7771—7774.
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