关于我国地震预测预报发展的几点思考
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摘要
从地震预测预报的时间范围、与基础性学科的依赖关系、以及认识论和方法论等不同角度,简要分析现今我国地震预测预报的三种不同分类;从地震的科学与社会双重属性,分析制约其发展的一般科学技术规律和社会需求形势;结合地震预测预报分类及影响其发展的科学与社会因素,讨论我国地震预报发展思路。认为当前我国地震预测预报处于承上启下的重要发展阶段,提出坚持多路探索,建立"长中短临与震后"的分析预报工作体系,加强技术创新与储备,推进物理性地震预测预报探索的发展途径,并就其必要性、科学思路、基本内容和基础条件等进行了讨论。
Earthquake prediction in China was classified respectively from three different points of view: time scale,relation with more basic disciplines,and epistemology and methodology.Based on the double features of science and society of earthquakes,the influencing factors that regulate the development of earthquake prediction in China were analyzed.Considering the classification of earthquake prediction and the science and society factors which would affected the development of earthquake prediction in our country,a train of thinking to advance the earthquake prediction of our country was discussed.It is suggested that at the present,earthquake prediction of China is in an important stage as a connecting link between the preceding and the following.It is proposed that a system of "long-medium-short-impending term and after-shock" earthquake prediction should be set up,technological innovation and reservation must be enhanced,and physical earthquake prediction based on theoretical model of earthquakes should be pushed forward,and the necessity,scientific paths,main content and ensuring conditions are discussed.
Earthquake prediction in China was classified respectively from three different points of view: time scale,relation with more basic disciplines,and epistemology and methodology.Based on the double features of science and society of earthquakes,the influencing factors that regulate the development of earthquake prediction in China were analyzed.Considering the classification of earthquake prediction and the science and society factors which would affected the development of earthquake prediction in our country,a train of thinking to advance the earthquake prediction of our country was discussed.It is suggested that at the present,earthquake prediction of China is in an important stage as a connecting link between the preceding and the following.It is proposed that a system of "long-medium-short-impending term and after-shock" earthquake prediction should be set up,technological innovation and reservation must be enhanced,and physical earthquake prediction based on theoretical model of earthquakes should be pushed forward,and the necessity,scientific paths,main content and ensuring conditions are discussed.
引文
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[2]张国民等.中国大陆地震中长期地震危险性研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2008.
[3]吴淳.古代中国科学范型[M].北京:中华书局,2002.
[4]吴国盛.科学的历程[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2003.
[5]刘桂萍.关于我国地震预报的几点思考[J].国际地震动态,2006,3:32-38.
[6]钱伟长.我国的科学任务[M].山东:山东教育出版社,2002.
[7]楼宝棠.中国古今地震灾情总汇[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[8]张国民,马宏生、王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):602-610.
[9]丑纪范.大气科学中的非线性与复杂性[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.
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