从震源模式讨论2008年汶川8级地震的回顾性预测
|
摘要
大地震的成因与预测是很复杂的,很难用一个模式把它们全面概括起来,所以文中用4个模式来描述。这4个模式分别是叠加模式、组合模式、立交模式和调制模式。它们在震源孕育和发震过程中各有各的功能。叠加模式是讨论孕震力源问题的,组合模式是讨论震源结构问题的,立交模式是讨论孕震断层面上的凹凸齿合是如何形成的问题的,调制模式是讨论临发震前震源处的不稳定与外因的关系问题的。文中用以上4个模式讨论2008年汶川8级地震的回顾性预测。
The cause and prediction of great earthquake are very complicated.It is difficult to totally summarize them using one model.In the paper,we use four models to describe them,namely,the superposition model,the combination model,the stereographic cross model and the modulation model.Each of the four models plays a different role in describing the preparation and occurrence of an earthquake.The superposition model deals with the problem about the driving force of earthquake preparation.The combination model discusses the problem about the structure of earthquake source.The stereographic cross model discusses the problem of how the asperity on the fault plane in the seismic source forms.And the modulation model focuses on the problem about that external factors triggering instability in the source region and its vicinity during short and imminent term before an earthquake.The paper tries to make a retrospective prediction of the MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 using the abovementioned models.
The cause and prediction of great earthquake are very complicated.It is difficult to totally summarize them using one model.In the paper,we use four models to describe them,namely,the superposition model,the combination model,the stereographic cross model and the modulation model.Each of the four models plays a different role in describing the preparation and occurrence of an earthquake.The superposition model deals with the problem about the driving force of earthquake preparation.The combination model discusses the problem about the structure of earthquake source.The stereographic cross model discusses the problem of how the asperity on the fault plane in the seismic source forms.And the modulation model focuses on the problem about that external factors triggering instability in the source region and its vicinity during short and imminent term before an earthquake.The paper tries to make a retrospective prediction of the MS 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 using the abovementioned models.
引文
程万正,阮祥,张致伟.2009.汶川8.0级地震序列及震型判定[J].地震,29(1):15—25.CHENG Wan-zheng,RUAN Xiang,ZHANG Zhi-wei.2009.Determination of the WenchuanMS8.0earthquake se-quence and shock type[J].Earthquake,29(1):15—25(in Chinese).
丁鉴海,张京,于素荣,等.2008.地磁日变和电离层F0F2异常场与地震预报研究[R].震情研究,(4):88—90.DING Jian-hai,Zhang Jing,YUSu-rong,et al.2008.Anomalous field of geomagnetic diurnal-variation and ionosphericF0F2and earthquake prediction research[R].Study of Earthquake Regime,(4):88—90(in Chinese).
邓起东.2008.关于四川汶川8.0级地震的思考[J].地震地质,30(4):812—827.DENG Qi-dong.2008.Some thoughts on theMS8.0Wenchuan,Sichuan earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,30(4):812—827(in Chinese).
郭安宁,陈家超.2002.中国大震问题[M].北京:地震出版社.GUO An-ning,CHEN Jia-chao.2002.Problems of Big Earthquake in China[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chi-nese).
郭飚,刘启元,陈九辉,等.2009.川西龙门山及邻区地壳上地幔远震P波层析成像[J].地球物理学报,52(2):346—355.GUO Biao,LIU Qi-yuan,CHEN Jiu-hui,et al.2009.Teleseismic P-wave tomography of the crust and upper mantle inLongmenshan area,west Sichuan[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(2):346—355(in Chinese).
国家重大科学工程“中国地壳运动观测网络项目”组.2008.GPS测量的2008年汶川8.0级地震的同震位移场[J].中国科学(D辑),38(10):1195—1206.The Group for National Major Scientific Engineering Project—Crustal Movement Observation Network of China.2008.Co-seismic displacement field of theMS8.0Wenchuan earthquake in2008measured by GPS[J].Science inChina(Ser D),38(10):1195—1206(in Chinese).
郭增建.1985a.立交模式及其在地震预报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,7(1):94—101.GUO Zeng-jian.1985a.The stereoscopic cross model and its application to earthquake prediction[J].NorthwesternSeismological Journal,7(1):94—101(in Chinese).
郭增建.1985b.立交模式预报地震的讨论[J].西北地震学报,7(2):89—94.GUO Zeng-jian.1985b.Discussion on earthquake prediction by means of the stereoscopic cross model[J].Northwest-ern Seismological Journal,7(2):89—94(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.1983.临震预报的广义调判模式[J].西北地震学报,5(1):91—98.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.1983.On the general modulation model for impending earthquake prediction[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,5(1):91—98(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.1984.由调制模式讨论短临地震预报[J].西北地震学报,6(2):90—98.GUO Zeng-jian,Qin Bao-yan.1984.Discussion on the short-term and impending earthquake prediction by the modula-tion model[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,6(2):90—98(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.1991.地震成因与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.1991.Earthquake Cause and Earthquake Prediction[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕,徐文耀,等.1973.震源孕育模式的初步讨论[J].地球物理学报,16:43—48.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan,XU Wen-yao,et al.1973.A preliminary study on the models of earthquake source de-velopment[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,16:43—48(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕,李海华,等.1977a.预报地震的倍九法[J].地震战线,(5):30—32.GUO Zeng-jian,Qin Bao-yan,LI Hai-hua,et al.1977a.The multiplied nine days method for predicting earthquake[J].Earthquake Frontier,(5):30—32(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.张远孚,等.1977b.从水平力和垂直力的相互作用讨论中国境内地震的孕育和发生[J].地球物理学报,20(3):242—250.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan,ZHANG Yuan-fu,et al.1977b.Adiscussion on the interaction of horizontal and verticalstresses in the development of earthquake sources in China[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,20(3):242—250(inChinese).
兰州地震大队.1971.用地震资料推断近期地震危险区[J].地震战线,(8):14—18.Lanzhou Seismological Brigade.1971.Deducing the forthcoming earthquake risk region by seismological data[J].Earthquake Frontier,(8):14—18(in Chinese).
刘启元,李昱,陈九辉,等.2009.汶川MS8.0地震:地壳上地幔S波速度结构的初步研究[J].地球物理学报,52(2):309—319.LIU Qi-yuan,LI Yu,CHEN Jiu-hui,et al.2009.WenchuanMS8.0earthquake:A preliminary study of the S-wave ve-locity structure of the crust and upper mantle[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(2):309—319(in Chi-nese).
马钦忠.2008.汶川大震现场地震电磁异常信号追踪[R].震情研究,(2-3):48—61.MA Qin-zhong.2008.Tracing the seismo-electromagnetic anomalous signals in the field of the great Wenchuan earth-quake[R].Study of Earthquake Regime,(2-3):48—61(in Chinese).
胥颐,黄润秋,李志伟,等.2009.龙门山构造带及汶川震源区的S波速度结构[J].地球物理学报,52(2):329—338.XU Yi,HUANG Rui-qiu,LI Zhi-wei,et al.2009.S-wave velocity structure of the Longmen Shan and Wenchuan earth-quake area[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(2):329—338(in Chinese).
杨选辉.2008.512地震后现场震情跟踪工作及反思[R].震情研究,(2-3):62—69.YANG Xuan-hui.2008.Tracing the earthquake regime in field and introspection after the great earthquake on May12[R].Study of Earthquake Regime,(2-3):62—69(in Chinese).
赵斌,陈志遥,吕品姬,等.2008.全国地倾斜测项台网对汶川地震的响应[R].科技动态:地壳运动与地震,(3):22—26.ZHAO Bin,CHEN Zhi-yao,L Pin-ji,et al.2008.Response of the nationwide tiltmeter observation network to theWenchuan earthquake[R].Development of Science and Technology:Crustal Movement and Earthquakes,(3):22—26(in Chinese).
丁鉴海,张京,于素荣,等.2008.地磁日变和电离层F0F2异常场与地震预报研究[R].震情研究,(4):88—90.DING Jian-hai,Zhang Jing,YUSu-rong,et al.2008.Anomalous field of geomagnetic diurnal-variation and ionosphericF0F2and earthquake prediction research[R].Study of Earthquake Regime,(4):88—90(in Chinese).
邓起东.2008.关于四川汶川8.0级地震的思考[J].地震地质,30(4):812—827.DENG Qi-dong.2008.Some thoughts on theMS8.0Wenchuan,Sichuan earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,30(4):812—827(in Chinese).
郭安宁,陈家超.2002.中国大震问题[M].北京:地震出版社.GUO An-ning,CHEN Jia-chao.2002.Problems of Big Earthquake in China[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chi-nese).
郭飚,刘启元,陈九辉,等.2009.川西龙门山及邻区地壳上地幔远震P波层析成像[J].地球物理学报,52(2):346—355.GUO Biao,LIU Qi-yuan,CHEN Jiu-hui,et al.2009.Teleseismic P-wave tomography of the crust and upper mantle inLongmenshan area,west Sichuan[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(2):346—355(in Chinese).
国家重大科学工程“中国地壳运动观测网络项目”组.2008.GPS测量的2008年汶川8.0级地震的同震位移场[J].中国科学(D辑),38(10):1195—1206.The Group for National Major Scientific Engineering Project—Crustal Movement Observation Network of China.2008.Co-seismic displacement field of theMS8.0Wenchuan earthquake in2008measured by GPS[J].Science inChina(Ser D),38(10):1195—1206(in Chinese).
郭增建.1985a.立交模式及其在地震预报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,7(1):94—101.GUO Zeng-jian.1985a.The stereoscopic cross model and its application to earthquake prediction[J].NorthwesternSeismological Journal,7(1):94—101(in Chinese).
郭增建.1985b.立交模式预报地震的讨论[J].西北地震学报,7(2):89—94.GUO Zeng-jian.1985b.Discussion on earthquake prediction by means of the stereoscopic cross model[J].Northwest-ern Seismological Journal,7(2):89—94(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.1983.临震预报的广义调判模式[J].西北地震学报,5(1):91—98.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.1983.On the general modulation model for impending earthquake prediction[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,5(1):91—98(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.1984.由调制模式讨论短临地震预报[J].西北地震学报,6(2):90—98.GUO Zeng-jian,Qin Bao-yan.1984.Discussion on the short-term and impending earthquake prediction by the modula-tion model[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,6(2):90—98(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.1991.地震成因与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan.1991.Earthquake Cause and Earthquake Prediction[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕,徐文耀,等.1973.震源孕育模式的初步讨论[J].地球物理学报,16:43—48.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan,XU Wen-yao,et al.1973.A preliminary study on the models of earthquake source de-velopment[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,16:43—48(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕,李海华,等.1977a.预报地震的倍九法[J].地震战线,(5):30—32.GUO Zeng-jian,Qin Bao-yan,LI Hai-hua,et al.1977a.The multiplied nine days method for predicting earthquake[J].Earthquake Frontier,(5):30—32(in Chinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.张远孚,等.1977b.从水平力和垂直力的相互作用讨论中国境内地震的孕育和发生[J].地球物理学报,20(3):242—250.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan,ZHANG Yuan-fu,et al.1977b.Adiscussion on the interaction of horizontal and verticalstresses in the development of earthquake sources in China[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,20(3):242—250(inChinese).
兰州地震大队.1971.用地震资料推断近期地震危险区[J].地震战线,(8):14—18.Lanzhou Seismological Brigade.1971.Deducing the forthcoming earthquake risk region by seismological data[J].Earthquake Frontier,(8):14—18(in Chinese).
刘启元,李昱,陈九辉,等.2009.汶川MS8.0地震:地壳上地幔S波速度结构的初步研究[J].地球物理学报,52(2):309—319.LIU Qi-yuan,LI Yu,CHEN Jiu-hui,et al.2009.WenchuanMS8.0earthquake:A preliminary study of the S-wave ve-locity structure of the crust and upper mantle[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(2):309—319(in Chi-nese).
马钦忠.2008.汶川大震现场地震电磁异常信号追踪[R].震情研究,(2-3):48—61.MA Qin-zhong.2008.Tracing the seismo-electromagnetic anomalous signals in the field of the great Wenchuan earth-quake[R].Study of Earthquake Regime,(2-3):48—61(in Chinese).
胥颐,黄润秋,李志伟,等.2009.龙门山构造带及汶川震源区的S波速度结构[J].地球物理学报,52(2):329—338.XU Yi,HUANG Rui-qiu,LI Zhi-wei,et al.2009.S-wave velocity structure of the Longmen Shan and Wenchuan earth-quake area[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(2):329—338(in Chinese).
杨选辉.2008.512地震后现场震情跟踪工作及反思[R].震情研究,(2-3):62—69.YANG Xuan-hui.2008.Tracing the earthquake regime in field and introspection after the great earthquake on May12[R].Study of Earthquake Regime,(2-3):62—69(in Chinese).
赵斌,陈志遥,吕品姬,等.2008.全国地倾斜测项台网对汶川地震的响应[R].科技动态:地壳运动与地震,(3):22—26.ZHAO Bin,CHEN Zhi-yao,L Pin-ji,et al.2008.Response of the nationwide tiltmeter observation network to theWenchuan earthquake[R].Development of Science and Technology:Crustal Movement and Earthquakes,(3):22—26(in Chinese).
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心