基于确定因子的不确定性推理的仿真实现

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英文篇名：Simulation and Realization of Uncertainty Reasoning Based on Certainty Factor 中文刊名：计算机仿真 英文刊名：Computer Simulation 作者：董春游 ; 潘道华 英文作者：DONG Chun-you ; PAN Dao-hua(College of Computer and Information Engineering ; Heilongjiang Institute of Science and Technology ; Harbin Heilongjiang 150027 ; China) 中文关键词：不确定性推理 ; 模拟 ; 确定因子 英文关键词：Uncertainty reasoning ; Simulation ; Certainty factor 出版日期：2009-09-15 机构：黑龙江科技学院计算机与信息工程学院; 年：2009 期：09 出版单位：计算机仿真

摘要

针对传统的基于确定因子的不确定性推理模型在实际应用中出现的几个问题,提出了一种新型的以数理统计理论为基础、通过采用计算机模拟的方法来实现不确定性推理模型中相关参数的算法模型,并对基于确定因子的不确定性推理模型的相关知识作了详细叙述。根据所给出的算法模型,以地震预报专家系统中某条知识表示的规则强度CF的值的得出为例,完成了对CF的模拟,详细阐述了方法的实现过程并对模拟出的值的可信程度进行了检验,结果证明模拟技术为人工智能研究领域的不确定性推理的应用提供一种新的方法。
In view of several problems appeared in the traditional certainty factor-based uncertainty reasoning model,the paper presents a new algorithm model which takes the mathematical statistic theory as the foundation,uses the computer simulation to get the parameters in the uncertainty reasoning model,and elaborates the correlation knowledge about the uncertainty reasoning based on the certainty factor. According to the algorithm model given,this paper takes the simulation and realization of the rule certainty factor in an earthquake prediction expert system as an example to elaborate the realization process in detail and carries out the examination. The result proved that the simulation technology provides a new method for the application of uncertainty reasoning in Artificial Intelligence research area.

引文

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