新疆克孜尔水库地震危险性预测研究
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摘要
应用库区多项形变观测资料 ,对克孜尔水库蓄水后出现的形变异常及诱发水库地震的危险性进行了研究。结果认为 :1穿过水库大坝的 F2 活断层在蓄水后出现水平和垂直形变的特大异常变化主要是前期水库施工开挖土石方、填筑土石方及水库蓄水引起地面负荷变化的综合效应所致 ;2克孜尔水库虽然存在诱发水库地震的潜在因素 ,但从库容、坝高、F2 活断层产状、地质构造背景、水文地质条件、岩性以及世界各国发生水库诱发地震的成因、特点等多方面综合分析表明 ,克孜尔水库不具备发生水库诱发地震的充分条件 ;3由库区各项形变观测资料分析表明 ,库区地壳形变已由施工—蓄水初期时的反向异常变化恢复到了施工蓄水前的正常变化状态 ,各种受力因素经过调整达到了新的平衡 ,已进入相对稳定的继承性运动期 ,因此今后因蓄水诱发水库地震的可能性不大
After the Kizil Reservoir in Xinjiang Region stored water, the horizontal and vertical deformation appeared in the reservoir area. According to the references, the seismic risk induced by the reservoir was studied by using multi-item deformation data. The result shows: ① Active fault F 2, crossing the reservoir area, deformed largely after the reservoir was stored water. It is thought that the changing of the load on the ground caused the deformation. ② Although there is potential factor inducing earthquakes in the Kizil reservoir area, the Precent condition of the reservoir water storage, dam height, fault F 2 occurrence, geological tectonic background, hydrogeological condition, and the property of rocks could not induce a reservoir earthquake. ③ Because the crustal deformation now has recovered to normal state from the opposite anomaly in the period of construction and initial water storage, and every kind of force-affected factors have reached a new balance, the probability to induce a reservoir earthquake is less in the future.
After the Kizil Reservoir in Xinjiang Region stored water, the horizontal and vertical deformation appeared in the reservoir area. According to the references, the seismic risk induced by the reservoir was studied by using multi-item deformation data. The result shows: ① Active fault F 2, crossing the reservoir area, deformed largely after the reservoir was stored water. It is thought that the changing of the load on the ground caused the deformation. ② Although there is potential factor inducing earthquakes in the Kizil reservoir area, the Precent condition of the reservoir water storage, dam height, fault F 2 occurrence, geological tectonic background, hydrogeological condition, and the property of rocks could not induce a reservoir earthquake. ③ Because the crustal deformation now has recovered to normal state from the opposite anomaly in the period of construction and initial water storage, and every kind of force-affected factors have reached a new balance, the probability to induce a reservoir earthquake is less in the future.
引文
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[1 0 ] 于品清 .水库地震地质构造条件的讨论 [J].地壳形变与地震 ,1 983,3(3) :71 - 81
[2 ] 杨志荣 ,田兆宏 ,任坤彦 ,等 .新疆克孜尔水库形变观测前兆异常的初步研究 [J].内陆地震 ,1 998,1 2(2 ) :1 52 - 1 60 .
[3] 李祖武 .丹江口水库区地震的形成条件与发展趋势的讨论 [J].西北地震学报 ,1 981 ,3(2 ) :78- 88
[4] 武汉地震大队水库地震队 .水库地震 [J].地震战线 ,1 977,(4,5,6) :9- 1 1 ,5- 7,1 - 2 .
[5] 于品清 .丹江口水库地震发生的地质构造条件 [J].西北地震学报 ,1 980 ,4(2 ) :40 - 48.
[6] 田吕骏 .丹江口水库地震问题 [J].地震研究 ,1 982 ,5(1 ) :1 1 7- 1 2 3.
[7] 文机星 .水库诱发地震成因新探 [J].中国地震 ,1 990 ,6(3) :40 - 46.
[8] 刘忠书 ,韩晓光 ,龚平 .按新的水库地震分类探讨长江三峡水库诱发地震的可能性 [J].地壳形变与地震 ,1 995,1 5(2 ) :51 - 58.
[9] 陈希圣 .对安康水库诱发地震的预测 [J].内陆地震 ,1 993,7(1 ) :44- 53.
[1 0 ] 于品清 .水库地震地质构造条件的讨论 [J].地壳形变与地震 ,1 983,3(3) :71 - 81
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