中国地震灾害风险管理
|
摘要
从地震灾害的本质与灾害风险管理角度,结合国际灾害风险管理经验,评述汶川地震灾难中暴露出来的中国地震灾难风险管理的一些问题,指出过度强调或依赖地震预报,长于救灾而弱于防灾与减灾,使得中国难以降低地震灾难的严重程度。通过分析自然灾害风险管理的内涵、国际主流风险管理框架(IRGC、ERM、TDRM、GTZ),指出综合灾难风险管理是全面减灾最为有效、积极的手段与途径,中国在自然灾难管理中迫切需要实施综合风险管理。
This paper aims to explore the importance of natural disaster risk management to significantly reduce the impacts of disasters in China. Lessons learnt from the Wenchuan earthquake disaster, a catastrophic disaster that rarely occurred in China’s history, have shown that earthquake forecasting or prediction is a misconception in earthquake disaster reduction because it can not greatly help reduce the impacts of disasters. Therefore, it is high time for our country to shift its conception of disaster management from hazard forecasting or prediction to risk management, an effective and efficient way to reduce the impacts of disasters, in terms of the international progresses in disaster management theory and practices. The essential ways and measures to mitigate the seriousness of earthquake disasters in China include improvement of risk analysis and assessment of earthquake disasters, reduction of exposure and vulnerability in high risk areas through structural and non-structural measures, strict implementation of the building code for seismic design to insure the quality of buildings, especially for the critical facilities, establishment of modern systems of earthquake risk transfer, and enhancement of the national and local capacities to cope with disasters.
This paper aims to explore the importance of natural disaster risk management to significantly reduce the impacts of disasters in China. Lessons learnt from the Wenchuan earthquake disaster, a catastrophic disaster that rarely occurred in China’s history, have shown that earthquake forecasting or prediction is a misconception in earthquake disaster reduction because it can not greatly help reduce the impacts of disasters. Therefore, it is high time for our country to shift its conception of disaster management from hazard forecasting or prediction to risk management, an effective and efficient way to reduce the impacts of disasters, in terms of the international progresses in disaster management theory and practices. The essential ways and measures to mitigate the seriousness of earthquake disasters in China include improvement of risk analysis and assessment of earthquake disasters, reduction of exposure and vulnerability in high risk areas through structural and non-structural measures, strict implementation of the building code for seismic design to insure the quality of buildings, especially for the critical facilities, establishment of modern systems of earthquake risk transfer, and enhancement of the national and local capacities to cope with disasters.
引文
[1]王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,等.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程.地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1403-1410.
[2]抗震救灾专家组.汶川地震灾害综合分析与评估.北京:科学出版社,2009:166-176.
[3]黄永明,史保平.地震预测和防震的美国经验.科技导报,2008,26(10):22-24.
[4]李晓明.地震预测研究的技术路径之争.科学时报,2008-06-08[2009-09-01].http://www.mfzq.com.cn/Blog/Diary.aspx?Data=S&Tid=777307.
[5]胡世全.重大自然灾害中的“信息孤岛”现象研究:以5.12四川汶川特大地震为例.南昌高专学报,2008,23(5):163-165.
[6]刘凯,廖顺宝,张赛.中国地震发生频率与烈度的空间分布.地理科学进展,2008,27(3):13-18.
[7]王亚勇.汶川地震建筑震害启示:三水准设防和抗震设计基本要求.建筑结构学报,2008,29(4):26-33.
[8]OECD.Keeping schools safe in earthquake.Kanpur:NICEE,2004:1-242.
[9]Editorials.Bracing for the unknown.Nature,2009,459(7244):139-140.
[10]Mitchell C,Decker C.Applying risk-based decision-making methods/tools to U.S.Navy antiterrorism capabili-ties.http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ndia/mitchell_rb-dm_terr_hls_conf_may04.pdf,accessed December29,2008.
[11]Schwab A K,Eschelbach K,Brower D.Hazard Mitigation and Preparedness:Building Resilient Communities.San Francisco:John Wiley&Sons,2006:1-568
[12]Renn O.Risk Governance:Coping with Uncertainty in A Complex World.Earthscan,London:Stering,VA,2008:1-455.
[13]UN/ISDR.Living with Risk-A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives,2ed,2004:1-382.
[14]ADRC.Total Disaster Risk Management-Good practices,2005:11-23.
[15]张继权,冈田宪夫,多多纳裕一.综合自然灾害风险管理:全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择.自然灾害学报,2006,15(1):29-37.
[16]Renn O.Risk Governance:Towards an Integrative Ap-proach.International Risk Governance Council,White Pa-per,2005(1):1-156.
[17]Emergency Management Australia.Emergency Risk Man-agement Applications Guide,Australian emergency man-agement manual series,2004(5):1-56.
[18]ADRC.Total Disaster Risk Management,2004:1-25.
[19]GTZ.Guidelines:Risk Analysis:A Basis for Disaster Risk Management.Eschborn:Deutsche Gesellechaft für Tech-nische Zusammenarbeit(GTZ)GmbH,2004:1-73.
[20]刘丹.日本:防震救灾深入人心.科学时报,2008-05-22[2009-09-01].http://www.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/20085228325869206976.html
[21]OECD.OECD reviews of risk management policies:Japan large-scale floods and earthquakes.www.oecd.org/publish-ing/corrigenda,2009:1-274.
[22]滕五晓,加藤孝明.日本地震灾害保险体制的形成及其问题.自然灾害学报,2003,12(4):93-99.
[23]联合国.第二次世界减灾大会报告(A/CONF.206/6).第二次世界减灾大会,日本兵库县神户市,2005:1-39.
[2]抗震救灾专家组.汶川地震灾害综合分析与评估.北京:科学出版社,2009:166-176.
[3]黄永明,史保平.地震预测和防震的美国经验.科技导报,2008,26(10):22-24.
[4]李晓明.地震预测研究的技术路径之争.科学时报,2008-06-08[2009-09-01].http://www.mfzq.com.cn/Blog/Diary.aspx?Data=S&Tid=777307.
[5]胡世全.重大自然灾害中的“信息孤岛”现象研究:以5.12四川汶川特大地震为例.南昌高专学报,2008,23(5):163-165.
[6]刘凯,廖顺宝,张赛.中国地震发生频率与烈度的空间分布.地理科学进展,2008,27(3):13-18.
[7]王亚勇.汶川地震建筑震害启示:三水准设防和抗震设计基本要求.建筑结构学报,2008,29(4):26-33.
[8]OECD.Keeping schools safe in earthquake.Kanpur:NICEE,2004:1-242.
[9]Editorials.Bracing for the unknown.Nature,2009,459(7244):139-140.
[10]Mitchell C,Decker C.Applying risk-based decision-making methods/tools to U.S.Navy antiterrorism capabili-ties.http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ndia/mitchell_rb-dm_terr_hls_conf_may04.pdf,accessed December29,2008.
[11]Schwab A K,Eschelbach K,Brower D.Hazard Mitigation and Preparedness:Building Resilient Communities.San Francisco:John Wiley&Sons,2006:1-568
[12]Renn O.Risk Governance:Coping with Uncertainty in A Complex World.Earthscan,London:Stering,VA,2008:1-455.
[13]UN/ISDR.Living with Risk-A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives,2ed,2004:1-382.
[14]ADRC.Total Disaster Risk Management-Good practices,2005:11-23.
[15]张继权,冈田宪夫,多多纳裕一.综合自然灾害风险管理:全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择.自然灾害学报,2006,15(1):29-37.
[16]Renn O.Risk Governance:Towards an Integrative Ap-proach.International Risk Governance Council,White Pa-per,2005(1):1-156.
[17]Emergency Management Australia.Emergency Risk Man-agement Applications Guide,Australian emergency man-agement manual series,2004(5):1-56.
[18]ADRC.Total Disaster Risk Management,2004:1-25.
[19]GTZ.Guidelines:Risk Analysis:A Basis for Disaster Risk Management.Eschborn:Deutsche Gesellechaft für Tech-nische Zusammenarbeit(GTZ)GmbH,2004:1-73.
[20]刘丹.日本:防震救灾深入人心.科学时报,2008-05-22[2009-09-01].http://www.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/20085228325869206976.html
[21]OECD.OECD reviews of risk management policies:Japan large-scale floods and earthquakes.www.oecd.org/publish-ing/corrigenda,2009:1-274.
[22]滕五晓,加藤孝明.日本地震灾害保险体制的形成及其问题.自然灾害学报,2003,12(4):93-99.
[23]联合国.第二次世界减灾大会报告(A/CONF.206/6).第二次世界减灾大会,日本兵库县神户市,2005:1-39.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心