山东及邻区中强震前地下流体异常演化特征及检验性预测
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摘要
利用 19口井 (泉 ) 33个测项的地下流体观测资料 ,采用地下流体异常演化的多层次跟踪预报方法 ,分别对 1983年菏泽 5 9级和 1995年苍山 5 2级地震进行了中期、短期和短临 3个时间尺度的震情预测。结果表明 ,地震前地下流体异常的群体演化显示增长趋势 ,异常与地震具有“增长—地震”或“加速—地震”的关系。具有统一物理力学机制成因的水化学多组分同步变化是源兆异常的重要标志 ,其出现预示在井孔所处的同一条断裂带上 ,断裂强烈活动和深部构造背景区、历史强震区和断裂运动产生的挤压区是强震发生的有利地点
Based on analyzing observed data of underground fluid including 33 items in 19 wells,using the method of the multi layered prediction on underground fluid anomaly variations,the seismic condition predictions in medium term,short term and impending for the M S5 9 Heze earthquake in 1983 and the M S5 2 Cangshan earthquake in 1995 are made respectively.The results show that anomalous evolution of underground fluid appears increasing trend before the earthquakes,and relations between the anomalies of underground fluid and the earthquakes are characterized by“anomaly increasing earthquake occurring”or“anomaly accelerating earthquake occurring”.The synchronism variation of hydrogeochemical elements with the same forcing mechanism is a important mark of the source precursor anomaly,which indicates earthquake to occur at the fault zone around wells.The places(regions)are favourable for strong earthquake occurring,where there are intense faults activating and deep tectonics,historical strong earthquakes occurring and compressional zone by fault movementing.
Based on analyzing observed data of underground fluid including 33 items in 19 wells,using the method of the multi layered prediction on underground fluid anomaly variations,the seismic condition predictions in medium term,short term and impending for the M S5 9 Heze earthquake in 1983 and the M S5 2 Cangshan earthquake in 1995 are made respectively.The results show that anomalous evolution of underground fluid appears increasing trend before the earthquakes,and relations between the anomalies of underground fluid and the earthquakes are characterized by“anomaly increasing earthquake occurring”or“anomaly accelerating earthquake occurring”.The synchronism variation of hydrogeochemical elements with the same forcing mechanism is a important mark of the source precursor anomaly,which indicates earthquake to occur at the fault zone around wells.The places(regions)are favourable for strong earthquake occurring,where there are intense faults activating and deep tectonics,historical strong earthquakes occurring and compressional zone by fault movementing.
引文
[1] 国家地震局预测预防司 .地下流体地震预报方法 [J].北京 :地震出版社 ,1997.
[2 ] 王炜 ,宋俊高 ,李文英 .菏泽 5 9级地震前地震活动异常图像 [J].华北地震科学 ,1984,(4 ) :35 - 39.
[3] 周翠英 .菏泽 5 9级地震前后鲁西豫北地区小震应力场变化 [J].地震 ,1987,(3) :12 - 19.
[4 ] 戴维乐 .菏泽 5 9级地震前小震波速比时空变化特征 [J].华北地震科学 ,1991,9(1) :46 - 5 0 .
[5 ] 卢守安 ,刁守中 . 1995年 9月 2 0日山东省苍山 5 2级地震 [J].高原地震 ,1996 ,8(1) :8- 13.
[6 ] 周焕鹏 ,卢守安 .苍山 5 2级地震前地震波速比的异常变化 [J].高原地震 ,1996 ,8(1) :45 - 49.
[2 ] 王炜 ,宋俊高 ,李文英 .菏泽 5 9级地震前地震活动异常图像 [J].华北地震科学 ,1984,(4 ) :35 - 39.
[3] 周翠英 .菏泽 5 9级地震前后鲁西豫北地区小震应力场变化 [J].地震 ,1987,(3) :12 - 19.
[4 ] 戴维乐 .菏泽 5 9级地震前小震波速比时空变化特征 [J].华北地震科学 ,1991,9(1) :46 - 5 0 .
[5 ] 卢守安 ,刁守中 . 1995年 9月 2 0日山东省苍山 5 2级地震 [J].高原地震 ,1996 ,8(1) :8- 13.
[6 ] 周焕鹏 ,卢守安 .苍山 5 2级地震前地震波速比的异常变化 [J].高原地震 ,1996 ,8(1) :45 - 49.
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