地震作用下堤防风险分析研究
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摘要
基于地震作用对堤防风险因子不确定性的影响,将地震作用简化为对风险因子的不利扰动并用衰减函数来反映扰动的影响,以堤防安全的综合失效率和失事溃决洪水淹没范围来反映堤防整体风险,构建地震作用下堤防风险分析模型。以荆江大堤某典型断面在7度地震作用下为例,从风险角度对该断面漫顶溃堤风险、滑坡失稳风险、渗透破坏风险和土体液化风险进行了分析研究,并模拟了溃决洪水的淹没范围,所得结论可为堤防防洪减灾预警和决策提供参考。
To consider the uncertainty of seismic effects on embankment risk factors,we simplified earthquake action into a risk factor of adverse disturbance and represented the disturbance by an attenuation function.Then we developed an analysis model of comprehensive risk under earthquake to include embankment failure risk,flooding risk and flooding area.Using this model,we analyzed the risks of flood overtopping,slope stability,seepage and soil liquefaction,and simulated the area submerged by embankment-breach flow,through a case study of Jingjiang dike's typical section under earthquakes of seven degrees.This work is useful for design of flood warning system and emergency plans.
To consider the uncertainty of seismic effects on embankment risk factors,we simplified earthquake action into a risk factor of adverse disturbance and represented the disturbance by an attenuation function.Then we developed an analysis model of comprehensive risk under earthquake to include embankment failure risk,flooding risk and flooding area.Using this model,we analyzed the risks of flood overtopping,slope stability,seepage and soil liquefaction,and simulated the area submerged by embankment-breach flow,through a case study of Jingjiang dike's typical section under earthquakes of seven degrees.This work is useful for design of flood warning system and emergency plans.
引文
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[7]陈宁生,崔鹏,王晓颖,等.地震作用下泥石流源区砾石土体强度的衰减实验[J].岩土力学与工程学报,2004,23(6):2743～2747.CHEN Ningsheng,CUI Peng,WANG Xiaoying,et al.Testing study on strenght reduction of gravelly soil in triggering area of debrisflow under earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(6):2743～2747.(in Chinese)
[8]Chopard B,Droz M.物理系统的元胞自动机模拟[M].祝玉学,赵学龙译.北京:清华大学出版社,2003.
[2]姜树海,范子武,土石坝安全等级划分与防洪风险率评估[J].水利学报,2008,39(1):35～40.JIANG Shuhai,FAN Ziwu.Earth-rockfill dam safety classification and risk rate assessment on flood control[J].Journal of HydraulicEngineering,2008,39(1):35～40.(in Chinese)
[3]顾冲时,汪自力,刘成栋.堤防工程安全评估专家赋权模型.岩土力学[J],2006,27(12):2009～2014.GU Chongshi,WANG Zili,LIU Chengdong.Experts'weight model assessing embankment safety[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2006,27(12):2009～2014.(in Chinese)
[4]吴开亚,金菊良,魏一鸣.流域水安全预警评价的智能集成模型[J].水科学进展,2009,20(4):518～525.WU Kai-ya,JIN Ju-liang,WEI Yi-ming.Intelligent integrated model for forewarning evaluation of watershed water security[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(4):518～525.(in Chinese)
[5]张大伟,李丹勋,陈稚聪,等.溃决洪水的一维、二维耦合水动力学模型及应用[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(2):149～154.ZHANG Dawei,,LI Danxun,CHEN Zhicong,et al.Coupled one-and two-dimensional hydrodynamic models for embankment-breachflood and its application[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,29(2):149～154.(in Chinese)
[6]张尚弘,李丹勋,张大伟,等.基于虚拟现实的城市溃决洪水淹没过程仿真[J].水力发电学报,2011,60(3):104～108.ZHANG Shanghong,LI Danxun,ZHANG Dawei,et al.Simulation of embankment-breach flow submergence based on virtual reality[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2011,60(3):104～108.(in Chinese)
[7]陈宁生,崔鹏,王晓颖,等.地震作用下泥石流源区砾石土体强度的衰减实验[J].岩土力学与工程学报,2004,23(6):2743～2747.CHEN Ningsheng,CUI Peng,WANG Xiaoying,et al.Testing study on strenght reduction of gravelly soil in triggering area of debrisflow under earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(6):2743～2747.(in Chinese)
[8]Chopard B,Droz M.物理系统的元胞自动机模拟[M].祝玉学,赵学龙译.北京:清华大学出版社,2003.
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