沉积速率摇摆匹配法限定古地震事件日历年龄
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摘要
尝试运用沉积速率摇摆匹配方法来获得淤泥质泥炭系列样品的日历年龄,并与单个14C年代、时序已知系列14C年代的日历年龄进行对比。结果表明:在采样厚度较小的情况下,沉积速率摇摆匹配方法可以获得较小的日历年龄区间,具有一定的优越性;在采样数量足够多的情况下,系列14C年代贝叶斯校正也可以获得理想的日历年龄区间。综合不同方法获得的结果,推测发生在海原断裂带石卡关沟的古地震事件最大概率日历年龄区间为1 340～1 114calaBP(2σ)。
This paper presents a comparison of the calendar range of individual paleoearthquake calculated by conventional calibration,Bayesian analysis of series of peat samples as well as depth-age wiggle matching.The results suggest that:(1)The Bayesian analysis provides an excellent means to enhance chronological resolution when applied to a series of radiocarbon dates from sections with clear stratigraphic relationships.Such application can assess systematic errors when combined with independent chronological information,and determine the optimum chronological information for specific events and contexts.(2)The calendar ranges of series of samples collected from the same peat but different sampling thickness were compared with that of depth-age wiggle matching.The result shows that the chronological resolution by depth-age wiggle matching for the peat sample with thickness less than 2cm could achieve less than 100a.Therefore,the condition to obtain a high resolution calendar age is to have 5～6 samples with 0.5～2cm sampling thickness each and the interval of samples is 0.5～1cm.(3)The calendar range of paleoearthquakes constrained by the Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)Bayesian analysis model,which constructs the order of samples according to their position in the strata with series of radiocarbon dates,was compared with calendar range by the conventional method.The results show that Bayesian analysis could obtain high-precision calendar dates for closely spaced samples.(4)Therefore,the calendar interval of the paleoearthquake event on the middle segment of Huaiyuan Fault was inferred as 1340～1114cal aBP(2σ)by the above systematical comparsion.
This paper presents a comparison of the calendar range of individual paleoearthquake calculated by conventional calibration,Bayesian analysis of series of peat samples as well as depth-age wiggle matching.The results suggest that:(1)The Bayesian analysis provides an excellent means to enhance chronological resolution when applied to a series of radiocarbon dates from sections with clear stratigraphic relationships.Such application can assess systematic errors when combined with independent chronological information,and determine the optimum chronological information for specific events and contexts.(2)The calendar ranges of series of samples collected from the same peat but different sampling thickness were compared with that of depth-age wiggle matching.The result shows that the chronological resolution by depth-age wiggle matching for the peat sample with thickness less than 2cm could achieve less than 100a.Therefore,the condition to obtain a high resolution calendar age is to have 5～6 samples with 0.5～2cm sampling thickness each and the interval of samples is 0.5～1cm.(3)The calendar range of paleoearthquakes constrained by the Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)Bayesian analysis model,which constructs the order of samples according to their position in the strata with series of radiocarbon dates,was compared with calendar range by the conventional method.The results show that Bayesian analysis could obtain high-precision calendar dates for closely spaced samples.(4)Therefore,the calendar interval of the paleoearthquake event on the middle segment of Huaiyuan Fault was inferred as 1340～1114cal aBP(2σ)by the above systematical comparsion.
引文
国家地震局地质研究所,宁夏回族自治区地震局.1990.海原活动断裂带[M].北京:地震出版社.147—149.Institute of Geology,State Seismological Bureau,Seismological Bureau of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.1990.Haiyuan Active Fault Zone[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.147—149(in Chinese).
郭之虞.1999.加速器质谱14C测年及其应用[A].见:陈文寄主编.年轻地质体系的年代测定(续).北京:地震出版社.1—24.GUO Zhi-yu.1999.AMS radiocarbon dating and its application[A].In CHEN Wen-ji(ed).Age Determination ofYoung Geological Systems(continued).Seismological Press,Beijing.1—24(in Chinese).
卢演俦.1994.活动构造测年方法和年代学研究的现状与问题[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编.现今地球动力学研究及其应用.北京:地震出版社.380—388.LU Yan-chou.1994.Present state and problems on dating methods for active tectonic and geochronological research[A].In:Institute of Geology,State Seismological Bureau(ed).Research on Modern Geodynamics and Its Application.Seismological Press,Beijing.380—388(in Chinese).
仇士华,蔡莲珍,1997.14C测年技术新进展[J].第四纪研究,17(3):222—229.QIU Shi-hua,CAI Lian-zhen.1997.Recent advancement in radiocarbon dating[J].Quaternary Sciences,17(3):222—229(in Chinese).
闻学泽,张培震.1996.地震的原地复发模式理论及其有关问题[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(5).北京:地震出版社.1—11.WEN Xue-ze,ZHANG Pei-zhen.1996.Earthquake recurrence models and associated problems[A].In:Institute of Geology,State Seismological Bureau(ed).Research on Active Fault(5).Seismological Press,Beijing.1—11(inChinese).
尹金辉,郑勇刚,刘粤霞,等.2007.系列14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究进展综述[J].地球科学进展,22(3):297—304.YIN Jin-hui,ZHENG Yong-gang,LIU Yue-xia,et al.2007.Summarization on the development of calendrical calibrationby Bayesian analysis on series of radiocarbon dates[J].Advances in Earth Science,22(3):297—304(in Chinese).
张培震,闵伟,邓起东.2003.海原活动断裂带的古地震与强震复发规律[J].中国科学(D辑),33(8):705—713.ZHANG Pei-zhen,MIN Wei,DENG Qi-dong,et al.2003.Paleoearthquake and strong earthquake recurrence of Haiyuanactive fault zone[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(8):705—713(in Chinese).
郑勇刚,尹金辉,刘粤霞.2005.Quantulua-1220低本底液闪仪的性能测定[J].地震地质,27(4):624—632.ZHENG Yong-gang,YIN Jin-hui,LIU Yue-xia.2005.The performance test of Quantulua-1220liquid scintillationcounter[J].Seismology and Geology,27(4):624—632(in Chinese).
周卫健,卢雪峰,武振坤,等.2001.若尔盖高原全新世气候变化的泥炭记录与加速器放射性碳测年[J].科学通报,46(12):1040—1044.ZHOU Wei-jian,LU Xue-feng,WU Zhen-kun,et al.2002.Peat record reflecting Holocene climatic change in the Zoige Plateau and AMS radiocarbon dating[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,47(1):66—70.
Atwater B,Stuiver M,Yamaguchi D K.1991.Radiocarbon test of earthquake magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone[J].Nature,353:156—158.
Blaauw M,Gerard B M H,Dmitri M,et al.2003.A numerical approach to14C wiggle-match dating of organic deposits:Best fits and confidence intervals[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,22:1485—1500.
Bronk Ramsey C.1995.Radiocarbon calibration and analysis of stratigraphy:The OxCal Program[J].Radiocarbon,37(2):425—430.
Buck C E,Litton C D,Kenworthy J B,et al.1991.Combining archaeological and radiocarbon information:A Bayesianapproach to calibration[J].Antiquity,65:808—821.
Buck C E,Litton C D,Smith A F M.1992.Calibration of radiocarbon results pertaining to related archaeological events[J].Journal of Arcbaeological Science,19:497—512.
Buck C E,Christen J A,Kenworthy J B,et al.1994.Estimating the duration of archaeological activity using14C determinations[J].Oxford Journal of Archaeology,13:229—240.
Christen J A.1994.Summarizing a set of radiocarbon determination:A robust approach[J].Applied Statistics,43:489—504.
Christen J A,Clymo R S,Litton C D.1995.A Bayesian approach to the use of14C dates in the estimation of the age ofpeat[J].Radiocarbon,37(2):431—442.
Crone A J.1987.Introduction to directions in paleoseismology[R].USGS Open File Report,87-683,1—6.
Ferguson C W,Huber B,Suess H E.1966.Determination of the age of Swiss lake dwellings[J].Zeitschrift furNaturforschung,21a:1173—1177.
Friedrich W L,Kromer B,Friedrich M,et al.2006.Santorini eruption radiocarbon dated to1627-1600B.C.[J].Science,312(5773):548—548.
McCormac F G,Baillie M G L.1993.Radiocarbon to calendar date conversion:Calendrical bandwidths as a function ofradiocarbon precision[J].Radiocarbon,35(2):311—316.
Noller J S,Sowers J M,Colman S M,et al.2000.Introduction to Quaternary geochronology[A].In:Noller J S et al(eds).Quaternary Geochronology:Methods and Applications.American Geophysical Union,Washington DC.1—10.
Sieh K E,Johns R H.1984.Holocene activity of the San Andreas Fault at Wallace Creek[J].Geol Soc Am Bull,95:883—896.
Van Geel B,Mook W G.1989.High-resolution14C dating of organic deposits using natural atmospheric14C variations[J].Radiocarbon,31:151—156.
郭之虞.1999.加速器质谱14C测年及其应用[A].见:陈文寄主编.年轻地质体系的年代测定(续).北京:地震出版社.1—24.GUO Zhi-yu.1999.AMS radiocarbon dating and its application[A].In CHEN Wen-ji(ed).Age Determination ofYoung Geological Systems(continued).Seismological Press,Beijing.1—24(in Chinese).
卢演俦.1994.活动构造测年方法和年代学研究的现状与问题[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编.现今地球动力学研究及其应用.北京:地震出版社.380—388.LU Yan-chou.1994.Present state and problems on dating methods for active tectonic and geochronological research[A].In:Institute of Geology,State Seismological Bureau(ed).Research on Modern Geodynamics and Its Application.Seismological Press,Beijing.380—388(in Chinese).
仇士华,蔡莲珍,1997.14C测年技术新进展[J].第四纪研究,17(3):222—229.QIU Shi-hua,CAI Lian-zhen.1997.Recent advancement in radiocarbon dating[J].Quaternary Sciences,17(3):222—229(in Chinese).
闻学泽,张培震.1996.地震的原地复发模式理论及其有关问题[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(5).北京:地震出版社.1—11.WEN Xue-ze,ZHANG Pei-zhen.1996.Earthquake recurrence models and associated problems[A].In:Institute of Geology,State Seismological Bureau(ed).Research on Active Fault(5).Seismological Press,Beijing.1—11(inChinese).
尹金辉,郑勇刚,刘粤霞,等.2007.系列14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究进展综述[J].地球科学进展,22(3):297—304.YIN Jin-hui,ZHENG Yong-gang,LIU Yue-xia,et al.2007.Summarization on the development of calendrical calibrationby Bayesian analysis on series of radiocarbon dates[J].Advances in Earth Science,22(3):297—304(in Chinese).
张培震,闵伟,邓起东.2003.海原活动断裂带的古地震与强震复发规律[J].中国科学(D辑),33(8):705—713.ZHANG Pei-zhen,MIN Wei,DENG Qi-dong,et al.2003.Paleoearthquake and strong earthquake recurrence of Haiyuanactive fault zone[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(8):705—713(in Chinese).
郑勇刚,尹金辉,刘粤霞.2005.Quantulua-1220低本底液闪仪的性能测定[J].地震地质,27(4):624—632.ZHENG Yong-gang,YIN Jin-hui,LIU Yue-xia.2005.The performance test of Quantulua-1220liquid scintillationcounter[J].Seismology and Geology,27(4):624—632(in Chinese).
周卫健,卢雪峰,武振坤,等.2001.若尔盖高原全新世气候变化的泥炭记录与加速器放射性碳测年[J].科学通报,46(12):1040—1044.ZHOU Wei-jian,LU Xue-feng,WU Zhen-kun,et al.2002.Peat record reflecting Holocene climatic change in the Zoige Plateau and AMS radiocarbon dating[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,47(1):66—70.
Atwater B,Stuiver M,Yamaguchi D K.1991.Radiocarbon test of earthquake magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone[J].Nature,353:156—158.
Blaauw M,Gerard B M H,Dmitri M,et al.2003.A numerical approach to14C wiggle-match dating of organic deposits:Best fits and confidence intervals[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,22:1485—1500.
Bronk Ramsey C.1995.Radiocarbon calibration and analysis of stratigraphy:The OxCal Program[J].Radiocarbon,37(2):425—430.
Buck C E,Litton C D,Kenworthy J B,et al.1991.Combining archaeological and radiocarbon information:A Bayesianapproach to calibration[J].Antiquity,65:808—821.
Buck C E,Litton C D,Smith A F M.1992.Calibration of radiocarbon results pertaining to related archaeological events[J].Journal of Arcbaeological Science,19:497—512.
Buck C E,Christen J A,Kenworthy J B,et al.1994.Estimating the duration of archaeological activity using14C determinations[J].Oxford Journal of Archaeology,13:229—240.
Christen J A.1994.Summarizing a set of radiocarbon determination:A robust approach[J].Applied Statistics,43:489—504.
Christen J A,Clymo R S,Litton C D.1995.A Bayesian approach to the use of14C dates in the estimation of the age ofpeat[J].Radiocarbon,37(2):431—442.
Crone A J.1987.Introduction to directions in paleoseismology[R].USGS Open File Report,87-683,1—6.
Ferguson C W,Huber B,Suess H E.1966.Determination of the age of Swiss lake dwellings[J].Zeitschrift furNaturforschung,21a:1173—1177.
Friedrich W L,Kromer B,Friedrich M,et al.2006.Santorini eruption radiocarbon dated to1627-1600B.C.[J].Science,312(5773):548—548.
McCormac F G,Baillie M G L.1993.Radiocarbon to calendar date conversion:Calendrical bandwidths as a function ofradiocarbon precision[J].Radiocarbon,35(2):311—316.
Noller J S,Sowers J M,Colman S M,et al.2000.Introduction to Quaternary geochronology[A].In:Noller J S et al(eds).Quaternary Geochronology:Methods and Applications.American Geophysical Union,Washington DC.1—10.
Sieh K E,Johns R H.1984.Holocene activity of the San Andreas Fault at Wallace Creek[J].Geol Soc Am Bull,95:883—896.
Van Geel B,Mook W G.1989.High-resolution14C dating of organic deposits using natural atmospheric14C variations[J].Radiocarbon,31:151—156.
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