民航事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测
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摘要
民航事故征候的分析和预测是民航安全研究的重要内容。掌握民航事故征候的发展状况并据此提出相应的安全措施,可减少民航事故的发生。在民航事故征候灰色预测基础上,引入马尔可夫链(Markov Chains)预测理论,建立事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测模型。该模型具有灰色预测和马尔可夫链预测的优点,不仅提高了对波动性较大的随机变量的预测精度,同时还拓宽了灰色预测的应用范围。对某一航空公司过载大事件的灰色马尔可夫预测和检验分析表明,事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测模型精度高于GM(1,1)模型预测精度。研究表明,灰色马尔可夫预测模型可用于民航事故征候的预测。
This paper is aimed at presenting its authors' analysis and their renovated model for forecasting civil aviation incidents probability with the purpose to understand and monitor the influential factors so as to reduce such disastrous happenings in the future. Based on the grey method, we have presented ways on how to apply Markov chains to the forecasting practice and established our own Markov grey model in this paper. The proposed model combines both the merits of grey forecasting and those of Markov chains forecasting. Thus, the improved model can not only reduce the random fluctuation of incident data affecting forecasting accuracy but also helps to extend the application sphere of the grey model. Therefore, the model is expected to be taken as an available device for the future civil aviation safety management and control.
This paper is aimed at presenting its authors' analysis and their renovated model for forecasting civil aviation incidents probability with the purpose to understand and monitor the influential factors so as to reduce such disastrous happenings in the future. Based on the grey method, we have presented ways on how to apply Markov chains to the forecasting practice and established our own Markov grey model in this paper. The proposed model combines both the merits of grey forecasting and those of Markov chains forecasting. Thus, the improved model can not only reduce the random fluctuation of incident data affecting forecasting accuracy but also helps to extend the application sphere of the grey model. Therefore, the model is expected to be taken as an available device for the future civil aviation safety management and control.
引文
[1]General Administration of Civil Aviation of China(中国民用航空总局).Civil aviation aircraft flight incidents(MH2001-2004)(民用航空器飞行事故征候(MH2001-2004))[M].Beijing:Press of Civil Aviation of China,2004:2.
[2]International Civil Aviation Organization.Safety management manual[M].NewYork:The UNSecretariat,2006:31.
[3]WANG Yonggang(王永刚),L Xuemei(吕学梅).Grey relation analysis and grey model for civil aviation accidents forecasting[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2006,6(6):127-130.
[4]LUO Xiaoli(罗晓利).The classification statistic study of China Civil Aviation152flight incidents less than the least distance in1990-2003[J].China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2004,14(12):26-32.
[5]MAJUMDAR A,OCHIENG WY,NALDERP.Airspace safetyin New Zealand:Acausal analysis of controller caused airspace incidents be-tween1994-2002[J].The Aeronautical Journal,2006,108(1083):225-236.
[6]DENGJulong(邓聚龙).Greysystemtheorytutorial(灰色系统理论教程)[M].Wuhan:Press of Huazhong Universityof Science and Tech-nology,1992:20-22.
[7]ZHANG Qiming(张启明).The application of grey markov model in forecasting seismology[J].Journal ofSeismology(地震学刊),1994,7(1):27-29.
[2]International Civil Aviation Organization.Safety management manual[M].NewYork:The UNSecretariat,2006:31.
[3]WANG Yonggang(王永刚),L Xuemei(吕学梅).Grey relation analysis and grey model for civil aviation accidents forecasting[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2006,6(6):127-130.
[4]LUO Xiaoli(罗晓利).The classification statistic study of China Civil Aviation152flight incidents less than the least distance in1990-2003[J].China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2004,14(12):26-32.
[5]MAJUMDAR A,OCHIENG WY,NALDERP.Airspace safetyin New Zealand:Acausal analysis of controller caused airspace incidents be-tween1994-2002[J].The Aeronautical Journal,2006,108(1083):225-236.
[6]DENGJulong(邓聚龙).Greysystemtheorytutorial(灰色系统理论教程)[M].Wuhan:Press of Huazhong Universityof Science and Tech-nology,1992:20-22.
[7]ZHANG Qiming(张启明).The application of grey markov model in forecasting seismology[J].Journal ofSeismology(地震学刊),1994,7(1):27-29.
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