扣件式钢管模板支撑方案的模糊风险分析模型
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摘要
为确定经济合理的模板支撑方案,提出了基于可靠度分析和模糊集理论的扣件式钢管模板支撑方案的风险分析模型.利用施工现场调研统计资料,给出了扣件式钢管模板支撑架几何参数的概率模型.针对模板支撑架体系的主要失效模式,运用Monte Carlo数值模拟方法和插值法,计算了模板支撑架的体系可靠度.将模板支撑架体系的失效概率模糊化,建立了以模糊风险损失期望值最小为依据的风险决策模型.并通过对工程算例的风险分析,表明该模型考虑了支模方案中客观存在的众多不确定因素,兼顾了模板支撑架的安全性和经济性,可为支模方案的选择提供科学决策依据.
A model for risk analysis of fastener-style tubular steel(FSTS) supported scheme based on reliability analysis and fuzzy theory was proposed to obtain a safe and economic supported scheme.Making full use of site investigation data,probabilistic models for geometric parameter of FSTS formwork-support were established.In view of the significant failure modes of FSTS formwork-support system,reliability index was obtained by Monte Carlo simulation and interpolation technique.With the use of fuzzy failure probability,risk decision model based on minimum fuzzy risk loss expectation was presented.A case study showed that the model considered the numerous unavoidable risks in supported scheme,and satisfied safety and economy requirements for FSTS formwork-support.The results of risk analysis are useful in decision making for supported scheme selection.
A model for risk analysis of fastener-style tubular steel(FSTS) supported scheme based on reliability analysis and fuzzy theory was proposed to obtain a safe and economic supported scheme.Making full use of site investigation data,probabilistic models for geometric parameter of FSTS formwork-support were established.In view of the significant failure modes of FSTS formwork-support system,reliability index was obtained by Monte Carlo simulation and interpolation technique.With the use of fuzzy failure probability,risk decision model based on minimum fuzzy risk loss expectation was presented.A case study showed that the model considered the numerous unavoidable risks in supported scheme,and satisfied safety and economy requirements for FSTS formwork-support.The results of risk analysis are useful in decision making for supported scheme selection.
引文
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[2]佟晓利.钢筋混凝土结构施工期可靠性研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,1997:40 41.TONG Xiao-li.Study on the reliability of reinforcedconcrete structures during construction[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,1997:40 41.
[3]EI-SHAHHAT A M,ROSOWSKY D V,CHEN W F.Partial factor design for reinforced concrete buildingsduring construction[J].American Concrete InstituteStructural Journal,1994,91(4):475 485.
[4]李继华,林忠民,李明顺,等.建筑结构概率极限状态设计[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1990.
[5]浙江大学结构工程研究所.扣件式钢管支模承重脚手架施工风险分析与应用[R].杭州:浙江大学结构工程研究所,2004.Structural Engineering Institute of Zhejiang University.Risk analysis of fastener-style tubular steel formwork-support during construction and its application[R].Hangzhou:Structural Engineering Institute of ZhejiangUniversity,2004.
[6]杜荣军.扣件式钢管模板高支撑架的设计和使用安全[J].施工技术,2002,31(3):3 8.DU Rong-jun.Design and application safety of high supportframe of fastener-style steel pipe beam and board formwork[J].Construction Technology,2002,31(3):3 8.
[7]SWAIN A D,GUTTMANN H E.Handbook of humanreliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear power plantapplication[M].Washington D C:US Nuclear Regula-tory Commission,1983.
[8]索夫特-克里斯坦森,M.J.贝克.结构可靠性理论及其应用[M].范水士,陈慰如,李学伟,译.北京:科学出版社,1988.
[9]KAUFMANN A,GUPTA M.Fuzzy mathematics mod-els in engineering and management science[M].B VNorth-Holland:Elsevier Science Publishers,1988.
[10]LIOU T,WANG M J.Ranking fuzzy numbers withintegral value[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1992,50(3):247 255.
[11]方东平,黄新宇,李晓东,等.建筑业安全事故经济损失研究[J].建筑经济,2000(3):13 16.FANG Dong-ping,HUANG Xin-yu,LI Xiao-dong,et al.Study on Economic loss of construction industry Accident[J].Construction Economy,2000(3):13 16.
[12]HANNA A S,SENOUCI A B.Design optimization ofconcrete-slab forms[J].Journal of Construction Engi-neering&Management ASCE,1995,121(2):215221.
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