事件树分析法评估建筑物地震灾害风险
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摘要
建筑物地震事件树分析图的绘制,通常以场地地震最大加速度为条件,建筑物场地的地震动为初始事件,以无震害、场地破坏、震动震害、火灾及其蔓延等损失震害形态为环节事件,并按照震害发生与波及的顺序排列环节事件。示例研究表明,随着场地地震动强度的增大,环节事件的震害程度增大,地震灾害风险变大,增大无震害的概率,减小有震害环节事件的概率是城市建筑物地震风险评估的重要研究方向。利用事件树分析法探讨了设定工厂仓库的地震震害模型、损失程度评价、地震损伤度曲线图和地震灾害风险评估。分析表明,产生仓库地震灾害风险的主要因素是支架翻倒和仓库建筑物倒塌,为此提出了相应的改进措施。
When drawing a building event tree analysis chart,the greatest ground acceleration is usually regarded as the condition,and the seismic motion of site is regarded as the initial condition.The seismic damage and chain of events are chronicled according to their order of occurrence,starting with non-damage,ground failure,seismic damage,fire and their subsequent damages.Real case studies indicate that with the increase of the seismic strength,the degree of seismic damage and seismic hazard risk increases.Hence,increasing the probability of non-damage and reducing the probability of seismic damage chain events are an important area of research on urban building's earthquake risk assessment.The use of event tree analysis explores the model of earthquake destruction,degree of damage,curve of seismic hazard,and the risk of earthquake of the factory warehouse building.The main causes of warehouse seismic hazard risk are the turnover of the support and the collapse of the warehouse building.Strategies to deal with the damage prevention are proposed.
When drawing a building event tree analysis chart,the greatest ground acceleration is usually regarded as the condition,and the seismic motion of site is regarded as the initial condition.The seismic damage and chain of events are chronicled according to their order of occurrence,starting with non-damage,ground failure,seismic damage,fire and their subsequent damages.Real case studies indicate that with the increase of the seismic strength,the degree of seismic damage and seismic hazard risk increases.Hence,increasing the probability of non-damage and reducing the probability of seismic damage chain events are an important area of research on urban building's earthquake risk assessment.The use of event tree analysis explores the model of earthquake destruction,degree of damage,curve of seismic hazard,and the risk of earthquake of the factory warehouse building.The main causes of warehouse seismic hazard risk are the turnover of the support and the collapse of the warehouse building.Strategies to deal with the damage prevention are proposed.
引文
[1]聂高众,高建国,马宗晋,等.中国未来10~15年地震灾害的风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(1):68-73.
[2]Nie Gaozhong,Gao Jingguo,Ma Zongjin.Preliminary attempt on the relationship between the earthquake disaster and social sustainable development[A].Abstract of United Nations International Conference on Integration of Public Adminitration and Science of disasters[C].Beijing:UNDDSMS,1997,44-46.
[3]白海玲,黄崇福.自然灾害的模糊风险[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):47-53.
[4]星谷勝,中村孝明.構造物の地震リスクマネジメント[M].東京都:山海堂,2002.
[5]高橋雄司.簡易シミュレ—ションにょる建築物の地震リスク分析[C].構造工学論文集,2004,51B(3):453-463.
[6]高橋雄司.宫城県沖地震とした対象户建の住宅地震リスクマネジメント[EB/OL].http://www.kenken.go.jp/japanese research/lec-ture/h15/txt/07.pdf
[2]Nie Gaozhong,Gao Jingguo,Ma Zongjin.Preliminary attempt on the relationship between the earthquake disaster and social sustainable development[A].Abstract of United Nations International Conference on Integration of Public Adminitration and Science of disasters[C].Beijing:UNDDSMS,1997,44-46.
[3]白海玲,黄崇福.自然灾害的模糊风险[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):47-53.
[4]星谷勝,中村孝明.構造物の地震リスクマネジメント[M].東京都:山海堂,2002.
[5]高橋雄司.簡易シミュレ—ションにょる建築物の地震リスク分析[C].構造工学論文集,2004,51B(3):453-463.
[6]高橋雄司.宫城県沖地震とした対象户建の住宅地震リスクマネジメント[EB/OL].http://www.kenken.go.jp/japanese research/lec-ture/h15/txt/07.pdf
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