油气钻井核心技术的筛选方法
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摘要
钻井是石油勘探开发的基本手段,21世纪我国油气钻井面临着许多新的挑战,油气钻井核心技术的筛选对于科学合理地制定我国油气钻井科技发展战略具有重要意义。从我国陆上石油发展战略目标出发,建立了一套较为完善的定性和定量油气钻井核心技术评价指标体系。在专家调查和大量文献资料调研分析的基础上,应用特尔斐法的基本原理,通过定性分析与定量计算相结合,筛选和预测了今后5～10年支撑我国油气钻井科技发展战略的核心技术。对于定量评价指标体系,指标权重的确定采用权值因子判断法,该方法计算简单、实用。该筛选方法克服了单纯定性分析的不足,有利于实现决策的民主化与科学化。
Oil & gas drilling is faced with many new challenges in 21st century. Selection of oil & gas drilling core Technology is very important to scientifically and reasonably lay down scientific-technical development strategy in oil & gas drilling. Considering the strategy aim of land petroleum development in China, this paper established a qualitative and quantitative evaluation index system for evaluating oil & gas drilling core technology. Based on expert surveys and many literatures, and combined qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation, this paper applied Delphi method to select and predict the oil & gas drilling core technology in about 5-10 years, and introduced the process and steps of selecting oil & gas drilling core technology. For quantitative evaluation index system, weight value of each index is obtained by the weight factor decision method. Its calculation is simple and practicable. This selection method overcame the shortcomings of qualitative method and is beneficial to democratic and scientific decision.
Oil & gas drilling is faced with many new challenges in 21st century. Selection of oil & gas drilling core Technology is very important to scientifically and reasonably lay down scientific-technical development strategy in oil & gas drilling. Considering the strategy aim of land petroleum development in China, this paper established a qualitative and quantitative evaluation index system for evaluating oil & gas drilling core technology. Based on expert surveys and many literatures, and combined qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation, this paper applied Delphi method to select and predict the oil & gas drilling core technology in about 5-10 years, and introduced the process and steps of selecting oil & gas drilling core technology. For quantitative evaluation index system, weight value of each index is obtained by the weight factor decision method. Its calculation is simple and practicable. This selection method overcame the shortcomings of qualitative method and is beneficial to democratic and scientific decision.
引文
[1] 高德利.面向21世纪的能源科技[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1997:1-30.
[2] 王同良.石油钻井科技发展规划与科技进步评价研究[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2000:1-31.
[3] 孙明玺.特尔斐法.软科学的崛起-软科学研究方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1998:1-60.
[4] 张雅波,张跃龙.定性预测方法[J].吉林建筑工惩学院学报,1999,26(1):59-62.
[5] 荆平,宛峡.Delphi法在区域农业开发项目环境影响综合评价中的应用[J].重庆环境科学,1994,16(4):40-42.
[6] 杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社,1993:129-150.
[7] 杨家笠.模糊数学综合评判法在天然气集输工程方案选择中的应用[J].天然气工业,1987,7(1):21-24.
[8] 张灵莹.定性指标评价的定量化研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,36(7):98-101.
[9] 张辉,高德利.油气钻井核心技术的定量综合评估方法[J].石油钻探技术,2003,31(5):28-30.
[10]李艳辉.用于筛选提高采收率技术模糊数学模型[J],石油大学学报,1999,23(5):42-44.
[2] 王同良.石油钻井科技发展规划与科技进步评价研究[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2000:1-31.
[3] 孙明玺.特尔斐法.软科学的崛起-软科学研究方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1998:1-60.
[4] 张雅波,张跃龙.定性预测方法[J].吉林建筑工惩学院学报,1999,26(1):59-62.
[5] 荆平,宛峡.Delphi法在区域农业开发项目环境影响综合评价中的应用[J].重庆环境科学,1994,16(4):40-42.
[6] 杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社,1993:129-150.
[7] 杨家笠.模糊数学综合评判法在天然气集输工程方案选择中的应用[J].天然气工业,1987,7(1):21-24.
[8] 张灵莹.定性指标评价的定量化研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,36(7):98-101.
[9] 张辉,高德利.油气钻井核心技术的定量综合评估方法[J].石油钻探技术,2003,31(5):28-30.
[10]李艳辉.用于筛选提高采收率技术模糊数学模型[J],石油大学学报,1999,23(5):42-44.
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