应用灰色理论估计我国未来地震趋势
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摘要
应用灰色理论GM( 1,1)预测模型估计我国未来时段的地震趋势。为提高预测精度和反映“最新信息” ,在组成原始数列时 ,对于M≥ 7 5级地震 ,由平静幕、活跃幕采用不同震级阈值联合组成 ;对于其它级别地震则尽可能采用当前活动期以来的数据。计算结果表明 ,1997～ 2 0 0 0年期间我国大陆及邻区有发生M≥ 7 5级地震的可能 ,大陆西部可能发生 7 0至 7 5级以上地震 ;东部可能发生 5 5至 6 0级以上地震。同时 ,估计本活跃期的结束时间也可能比预计的稍长
In this paper,the seismic tendency in coming years in China is estimated by using GM(1,1) the prediction model of grey system theory.In order to improve its precision and reflect“ the latest information”,we constructed the primitive sequence using different magnitude threshold value in quiet and active episodes for the earthquakes whose magnitude M ≥7 5 and adopted the data from the present active episode for other magnitude scale earthquakes.The results show that there are possibility of earthquakes occurance with M ≥7 5 in China continent and its vicinity region from 1997 to 2000,and possibility of occurance earthquakes with M ≥7 0 or even M ≥7 5 in the west of continent and M ≥5 5 or M ≥6 0 earthquake in the east of continent.The present active episodes maybe longer than the our expect time.
In this paper,the seismic tendency in coming years in China is estimated by using GM(1,1) the prediction model of grey system theory.In order to improve its precision and reflect“ the latest information”,we constructed the primitive sequence using different magnitude threshold value in quiet and active episodes for the earthquakes whose magnitude M ≥7 5 and adopted the data from the present active episode for other magnitude scale earthquakes.The results show that there are possibility of earthquakes occurance with M ≥7 5 in China continent and its vicinity region from 1997 to 2000,and possibility of occurance earthquakes with M ≥7 0 or even M ≥7 5 in the west of continent and M ≥5 5 or M ≥6 0 earthquake in the east of continent.The present active episodes maybe longer than the our expect time.
引文
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2 谭承业 ,阮圣娜 ,杨桂芬 .地震灰色模型的建立及讨论 .地震研究 ,1986 ,9(6 ) :6 85～ 6 91
3 冯德益 ,林命周 ,顾瑾平 ,等 .模糊集理论与灰色系统理论在地震预报中的综合应用 .地震学报 ,1992 ,14(3) :2 5 7～ 2 6 4
4 王秀文 .对大同 -阳高地震及其发展趋势的灰色预测 .地震 ,1994,(3) :78～ 84
5 张国民 ,姜秀娥 ,彭克银 ,等 .我国分区地震形势分析 .见 :国家地震局分析预报中心编 .中国地震大形势预测研究 (2 ) .北京 :地震出版社 ,1993.2 4～ 32
6 洪时中 .对中国大陆新的地震活跃幕的几点初步认识 .见 :国家地震局分析预报中心编 .中国地震大形势预测研究(1) .北京 :地震出版社 ,1990 . 10 1～ 10 7
2 谭承业 ,阮圣娜 ,杨桂芬 .地震灰色模型的建立及讨论 .地震研究 ,1986 ,9(6 ) :6 85～ 6 91
3 冯德益 ,林命周 ,顾瑾平 ,等 .模糊集理论与灰色系统理论在地震预报中的综合应用 .地震学报 ,1992 ,14(3) :2 5 7～ 2 6 4
4 王秀文 .对大同 -阳高地震及其发展趋势的灰色预测 .地震 ,1994,(3) :78～ 84
5 张国民 ,姜秀娥 ,彭克银 ,等 .我国分区地震形势分析 .见 :国家地震局分析预报中心编 .中国地震大形势预测研究 (2 ) .北京 :地震出版社 ,1993.2 4～ 32
6 洪时中 .对中国大陆新的地震活跃幕的几点初步认识 .见 :国家地震局分析预报中心编 .中国地震大形势预测研究(1) .北京 :地震出版社 ,1990 . 10 1～ 10 7
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