多随机因素条件下的峡口滑坡可靠性分析
|
摘要
降雨和地震是滑坡发生的主要诱发因素,且二者均具有很大的不确定性。四川雅安峡口地区为地震烈度VII度区,但地震活动较频繁,另外降雨量及地下水位随季节变化大,滑坡诱发作用强烈且具有明显的不确定性,研究诱发因素的不确定性对边坡可靠性而言至关重要。从静力学角度改进了基于Monte-Carlo法和剩余推力法的边坡可靠性分析方法,使地下水和地震力的随机性得到了考虑。综合考虑岩土体物理力学参数、地震力及地下水的随机性,以四川雅安峡口滑坡为研究对象,进行了多随机因素影响下的边坡可靠性分析。分析表明:地下水位随机性及降雨量变化对边坡可靠性影响较大,而地震随机性对边坡可靠性影响不大,但是地震力的存在对于边坡稳定系数的影响明显。
Rainfall and earthquake,both of which are of great uncertainty,are two of the most principal factors for landslides.Seismic activity is frequent in Xiakou area,Ya'an,Sichuan,although this area is located in the VII zone of seismic intensity.Furthermore,rainfall and groundwater table in Xiakou area sharply vary with seasons.Triggered effect on landslides is consequently strong and stochastic.Studies on the randomness of triggered foctors are crucial for the slope reliability.The method for the slope reliability anlysis based on Monte-Carlo method and residual thrust method is improved statically to take the randomness of groundwater and seismic force into account.Considering the randomness of mechanical parameters of slope,seismic forces and pressures of groundwater,the reliability analysis on Xiakou slope is conducted to quantify the contribution of triggered factors to the reliability of Xiakou slope.Analytical results show that randomness of groundwater table has a strong effect on the slope reliability.On the contrary,effect of randomness of earthquakes on the slope reliability is weak.However,seismic forces have a great influence on the stability factor of slopes.
Rainfall and earthquake,both of which are of great uncertainty,are two of the most principal factors for landslides.Seismic activity is frequent in Xiakou area,Ya'an,Sichuan,although this area is located in the VII zone of seismic intensity.Furthermore,rainfall and groundwater table in Xiakou area sharply vary with seasons.Triggered effect on landslides is consequently strong and stochastic.Studies on the randomness of triggered foctors are crucial for the slope reliability.The method for the slope reliability anlysis based on Monte-Carlo method and residual thrust method is improved statically to take the randomness of groundwater and seismic force into account.Considering the randomness of mechanical parameters of slope,seismic forces and pressures of groundwater,the reliability analysis on Xiakou slope is conducted to quantify the contribution of triggered factors to the reliability of Xiakou slope.Analytical results show that randomness of groundwater table has a strong effect on the slope reliability.On the contrary,effect of randomness of earthquakes on the slope reliability is weak.However,seismic forces have a great influence on the stability factor of slopes.
引文
[1]殷跃平.汶川八级地震地质灾害研究[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(4):433–444.(YIN Yue-ping.Researches on the geo-hazards triggered by Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2008,16(4):433–444.(in Chinese))
[2]TAMIMI SAMER,AMADEI Bernard,FRANGOPOL Dan M.Monte Carlo simulation of rock slope reliability[J].Computers&Structures,1989,33(6):1495–1505.
[3]SUNG Eun Cho.Effects of spatial variability of soil properties on slope stability[J].Engineering Geology,2007,92:97–109.
[4]祝玉学.边坡可靠性分析[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,1993.(ZHU Yu-xue.Reliability analysis in slope[M].Beijing:Metallurgical Industry Press,1993.(in Chinese))
[5]CHOWDHURY R N,XU D W.Geotechnical system reliability of slopes[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1995,47:141–151.
[6]NEWMARK N M.Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments[J].Geotechnique,196,15:139–160.
[7]AL-HOMOUD A S,TAHTAMONI W W.Reliability analysis of three-dimensional dynamic slope stability and earthquake-induced permanent displacement[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,2000,19:91–114.
[8]PARK Hyuck-Jin,WEST Terry R,WOO Ik.Probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability and random properties of discontinuity parameters,Interstate Highway 40,Western North Carolina,USA[J].Engineering Geology,2005,79:230–250.
[9]王家鼎,张倬元.地震诱发高速黄土滑坡的机理研究[J].岩土工程学报,1999,21(6):670–674.(WANG Jia-ding,ZHANG Zhuo-yuan.A study on the mechanism of high-speed loess landslide induced by earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1999,21(6):670–674.(in Chinese))
[10]鲍叶静,高孟潭,姜慧.地震诱发滑坡的概率分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(1):66–70.(BAO Ye-jing,GAO Meng-tan,JIANG Hui.Probabilistic analysis of earthquake-induced landslides[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(1):66–70.(in Chinese))
[11]何满潮,姚爱军,鹿粗,等.边坡岩体水力学作用的研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1998,17(6):662–666.(HE Man-chao,YAO Ai-jun,LU Cu,et al.Study of mechanical fuctions of underground water in slope rock mass[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,1998,17(6):662–666.(in Chinese))
[12]薛禹群,朱学愚,吴吉春,等.地下水动力学[M].北京:地质出版社,1997.(XUE Yu-qun,ZHU Xue-yu,WU Ji-chun,et al.Groundwater dynamics[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1997.(in Chinese))
[13]BEAR Jacob.Dynamics of fluids in porous media[M].New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company Inc,1972.
[14]CORNELL C A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(5):1583–1606.
[15]胡聿贤.地震危险性分析中的综合概率法[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.(HU Yu-xian.Comprehensive probability method for the seismic risk analysis[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1990.(in Chinese))
[16]胡聿贤.地震工程学[M].第二版.北京:地震出版社,2006.(HU Yu-xian.Seismic engineering[M].2nd ed.Beijing:Earthquake Press,2006.(in Chinese))
[17]胡聿贤,张继栋,邹夕林,等.基岩地振动参数与震级和距离的关系[J].地震学报,1982,4(2):199–207.(HU Yu-xian,ZHANG Ji-dong,ZOU Xi-lin,et al.Functional relations of bedrock motion paremeters with earthequake magnitude and distance[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1982,4(2):199–207.(in Chinese))
[18]GB50011—2001建筑抗震设计规范[S].(GB50011—2001 Architectural aseismatic design criterion[S].(in Chinese))
[19]徐卫亚,张志腾.滑坡失稳破坏概率及可靠度研究[J].灾害学,1995,10(4):33–37.(XU Wei-ya,ZHANG Zhi-teng.Study on landslide failure probability and reliability[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1995,10(4):33–37.(in Chinese)
[2]TAMIMI SAMER,AMADEI Bernard,FRANGOPOL Dan M.Monte Carlo simulation of rock slope reliability[J].Computers&Structures,1989,33(6):1495–1505.
[3]SUNG Eun Cho.Effects of spatial variability of soil properties on slope stability[J].Engineering Geology,2007,92:97–109.
[4]祝玉学.边坡可靠性分析[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,1993.(ZHU Yu-xue.Reliability analysis in slope[M].Beijing:Metallurgical Industry Press,1993.(in Chinese))
[5]CHOWDHURY R N,XU D W.Geotechnical system reliability of slopes[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1995,47:141–151.
[6]NEWMARK N M.Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments[J].Geotechnique,196,15:139–160.
[7]AL-HOMOUD A S,TAHTAMONI W W.Reliability analysis of three-dimensional dynamic slope stability and earthquake-induced permanent displacement[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,2000,19:91–114.
[8]PARK Hyuck-Jin,WEST Terry R,WOO Ik.Probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability and random properties of discontinuity parameters,Interstate Highway 40,Western North Carolina,USA[J].Engineering Geology,2005,79:230–250.
[9]王家鼎,张倬元.地震诱发高速黄土滑坡的机理研究[J].岩土工程学报,1999,21(6):670–674.(WANG Jia-ding,ZHANG Zhuo-yuan.A study on the mechanism of high-speed loess landslide induced by earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1999,21(6):670–674.(in Chinese))
[10]鲍叶静,高孟潭,姜慧.地震诱发滑坡的概率分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(1):66–70.(BAO Ye-jing,GAO Meng-tan,JIANG Hui.Probabilistic analysis of earthquake-induced landslides[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(1):66–70.(in Chinese))
[11]何满潮,姚爱军,鹿粗,等.边坡岩体水力学作用的研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1998,17(6):662–666.(HE Man-chao,YAO Ai-jun,LU Cu,et al.Study of mechanical fuctions of underground water in slope rock mass[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,1998,17(6):662–666.(in Chinese))
[12]薛禹群,朱学愚,吴吉春,等.地下水动力学[M].北京:地质出版社,1997.(XUE Yu-qun,ZHU Xue-yu,WU Ji-chun,et al.Groundwater dynamics[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1997.(in Chinese))
[13]BEAR Jacob.Dynamics of fluids in porous media[M].New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company Inc,1972.
[14]CORNELL C A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(5):1583–1606.
[15]胡聿贤.地震危险性分析中的综合概率法[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.(HU Yu-xian.Comprehensive probability method for the seismic risk analysis[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1990.(in Chinese))
[16]胡聿贤.地震工程学[M].第二版.北京:地震出版社,2006.(HU Yu-xian.Seismic engineering[M].2nd ed.Beijing:Earthquake Press,2006.(in Chinese))
[17]胡聿贤,张继栋,邹夕林,等.基岩地振动参数与震级和距离的关系[J].地震学报,1982,4(2):199–207.(HU Yu-xian,ZHANG Ji-dong,ZOU Xi-lin,et al.Functional relations of bedrock motion paremeters with earthequake magnitude and distance[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1982,4(2):199–207.(in Chinese))
[18]GB50011—2001建筑抗震设计规范[S].(GB50011—2001 Architectural aseismatic design criterion[S].(in Chinese))
[19]徐卫亚,张志腾.滑坡失稳破坏概率及可靠度研究[J].灾害学,1995,10(4):33–37.(XU Wei-ya,ZHANG Zhi-teng.Study on landslide failure probability and reliability[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1995,10(4):33–37.(in Chinese)
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心