非参数投影寻踪回归在土石坝震损裂缝预测中的应用
|
摘要
根据汶川地震中绵阳市受损土石坝的实测数据,以大坝所在位置的地震烈度和地震发生前大坝的性态等因素作为预测因子,构造出土石坝震损裂缝预测的投影指标,采用可变阶的正交Hermite多项式拟合岭函数,并用单纯形算法优化投影指标函数,进而构建基于投影寻踪回归分析的震损裂缝预测模型,并将其用于该地区96座震损土石坝进行裂缝预测。将预测结果与实测资料进行比较,结果表明该模型具有较高的拟合度和良好的预测精度,为土石坝工程抗震设计和安全性评价提供参考。
According to the survey data of damaged earth-rock dam in Mianyang city of Sichuan Province after the Wenchuan earthquake,the predictive factors are determined by the seismic intensity of the dam site and the dam's performance before the earthquake,and a new projection index of fracture prediction of damaged earth-rock dam is put forward.The variable-order orthogonal Hermite polynomial is used to fit ridge function,and the simplex algorithm is used to optimize the projection index function.Then the projection pursuit regression model is built to predict the fracture of 96 earth-rock dams damaged by earthquake of the region.The result of the fracture value predicted by projection pursuit regression model is compared with the survey data.It is indicated that the model has higher prediction accuracy and provides a reference for seismic design and safety evaluation of the earth-rock dam.
According to the survey data of damaged earth-rock dam in Mianyang city of Sichuan Province after the Wenchuan earthquake,the predictive factors are determined by the seismic intensity of the dam site and the dam's performance before the earthquake,and a new projection index of fracture prediction of damaged earth-rock dam is put forward.The variable-order orthogonal Hermite polynomial is used to fit ridge function,and the simplex algorithm is used to optimize the projection index function.Then the projection pursuit regression model is built to predict the fracture of 96 earth-rock dams damaged by earthquake of the region.The result of the fracture value predicted by projection pursuit regression model is compared with the survey data.It is indicated that the model has higher prediction accuracy and provides a reference for seismic design and safety evaluation of the earth-rock dam.
引文
[1]景立平,卓旭炀,王祥建.复杂场地对地震波传播的影响[J].地震工程与工程振动,2005,(6):16-23.
[2]李永红,王平,曹荣.汶川地震中高土石坝震损初步分析[A].汶川大地震工程震害调查分析与研究[C].成都:中国水电顾问集团成都勘测设计研究院,2009.
[3]Friedman J.H,Stuetzle W.Projection pursuit regression[J].J Amer Statis Assoc.1981,76:817-823.
[4]李祚泳,汪嘉杨,金相灿等.基于进化算法的湖泊富营养化投影寻踪回归预测模型[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2007,39(2):1-8.
[5]张欣莉,丁晶.参数投影寻踪回归及其在年径流预测中的应用[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2000,32(3):13-15.
[6]付强,赵小勇.投影寻踪模型原理及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[7]何丹,刘超.基于统计分析的土石坝震害预测[J].大坝与安全,2010,(6):21-26.
[2]李永红,王平,曹荣.汶川地震中高土石坝震损初步分析[A].汶川大地震工程震害调查分析与研究[C].成都:中国水电顾问集团成都勘测设计研究院,2009.
[3]Friedman J.H,Stuetzle W.Projection pursuit regression[J].J Amer Statis Assoc.1981,76:817-823.
[4]李祚泳,汪嘉杨,金相灿等.基于进化算法的湖泊富营养化投影寻踪回归预测模型[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2007,39(2):1-8.
[5]张欣莉,丁晶.参数投影寻踪回归及其在年径流预测中的应用[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2000,32(3):13-15.
[6]付强,赵小勇.投影寻踪模型原理及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[7]何丹,刘超.基于统计分析的土石坝震害预测[J].大坝与安全,2010,(6):21-26.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心