基于MAPGIS的概率性地震危险性分析
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摘要
对工程场地的地震危险性分析是地震安全性评价的主要方法,并且为工程师提供抗震参数.在分析国内概率性地震危险性分析(PSHA)方法基础上,提出了基于GIS的概率性地震危险性分析的可行性方案.通过MAPGIS二次开发编写了地震危险性分析程序,并以三峡坝区某工程场地为例对程序进行了测试.基于MAPGIS的概率性地震危险性分析程序提供友好的人机交互界面,提高了地震危险性分析的可操作性,更重要的是帮助用户从空间数据中挖掘更多的信息.
Engineering seismic hazard analysis for a specified site represents an essential element of seismic safety assessment, and provides engineers with the standards of protection against earthquakes.In this paper, on the basis of investigation of the several PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) methods in China, the feasible methods and solutions of PSHA based on GIS were put forward. Through the secondary development of MAPGIS, a PSHA procedure is developed. Finally, a PSHA example in the Yangtze Gorges district has testified the feasibility of the procedure. The PSHA procedure based on MAPGIS not only provides users with interactive interface to improve maneuverability, but also mines the information of PSHA from geo-data.
Engineering seismic hazard analysis for a specified site represents an essential element of seismic safety assessment, and provides engineers with the standards of protection against earthquakes.In this paper, on the basis of investigation of the several PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) methods in China, the feasible methods and solutions of PSHA based on GIS were put forward. Through the secondary development of MAPGIS, a PSHA procedure is developed. Finally, a PSHA example in the Yangtze Gorges district has testified the feasibility of the procedure. The PSHA procedure based on MAPGIS not only provides users with interactive interface to improve maneuverability, but also mines the information of PSHA from geo-data.
引文
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Kiureghian,A.D., Ang , A. H.S.,1977 . A fault-rupturemodel for seismic risk analysics risk analysis .Bulletinof the Seismological Society of America,67(4) :1173-1194 .
Leonard ,G.,Somer ,Z.,Horin,Y.B.,et al .,2002 .GIS as atool for seismological data processing .Pure Appl . Geo-phys.,159 :945 -967 .
Lindhol m,C.D.,Bungum, H.,2000 .Probabilistic seismichazard : A review of the seismological frame of refer-ence with examples from Norway .Soil Dynamics andEarthquake Engineering,20(1) :27 -38 .
McGurie ,R.K.,1976 .FORTRAN computer programs forseismic risk analysis .US Geol .Survey Open File Re-port ,Washington,USA.76 -67 .
Meletti ,C.,Patacca ,E.,Scandone ,P.,2000 .Construction ofa seismotectonic model : The case of Italy .Pure Appl .Geophys.,157 :11 -35 .
Wang ,M.F.,Yin,H.W.,Shen,P.S.,et al .,2000 .I mprovedmethod of seismic hazard assessment and its applica-tion.Journal of Hunan University ( Natural ScienceEdition),27(5) :79 -84(in Chinese with English ab-stract) .
Zhang ,Q.W.,Zhang ,P.Z.,1999 .Application of geographiinformation system ( GIS) to seismic risk analysisCrustal Deformation and Earthquake,19(1) :82 -86(in Chinese with English abstract) .
龚平,曾心传,罗延钟,2000 .地震危险性分析中常见地震发生概率模型的合理性及局限性研究.地震研究,23(1) :57 -62 .
汪梦甫,尹华伟,沈蒲生,等,2000 .地震危险性分析方法的改进及其应用.湖南大学学报(自然科学版) ,27(5) :78 -84 .
张秋文,张培震,1999 .地理信息系统(GIS)在地震危险性分析中的应用.地壳形变与地震,19(1) :82 -86 .
Bommer ,J .J .,2003 .Uncertainty about the uncertainty inseismic hazard analysis .Engineering Geology,70 :165-168 .
Casta os ,H.,Lomnitz ,C.,2002 .PSHA:Is it science ?En-gineering Geology,66 :315 -317 .
Cornell ,C.A.,1968 .Engineering seismic risk analysis .Bull .Seism. Soc. Am.,58 :1583 -1606 .
Cramer ,C.H.,2001 .A seismic hazard uncertainty analysisfor the New Madrid seismic zone .Engineering Geolo-gy,62 :251 -266 .
Gong ,P.,Zeng ,X.C.,Luo ,Y.Z.,2000 .Study on rationalityandli mitation of common probabilistic models for earth-quake occurrences in seismic risk analysis .Journal ofSeismological Research,23(1) :57 -62(in Chinese withEnglish abstract) .
Kiureghian,A.D., Ang , A. H.S.,1977 . A fault-rupturemodel for seismic risk analysics risk analysis .Bulletinof the Seismological Society of America,67(4) :1173-1194 .
Leonard ,G.,Somer ,Z.,Horin,Y.B.,et al .,2002 .GIS as atool for seismological data processing .Pure Appl . Geo-phys.,159 :945 -967 .
Lindhol m,C.D.,Bungum, H.,2000 .Probabilistic seismichazard : A review of the seismological frame of refer-ence with examples from Norway .Soil Dynamics andEarthquake Engineering,20(1) :27 -38 .
McGurie ,R.K.,1976 .FORTRAN computer programs forseismic risk analysis .US Geol .Survey Open File Re-port ,Washington,USA.76 -67 .
Meletti ,C.,Patacca ,E.,Scandone ,P.,2000 .Construction ofa seismotectonic model : The case of Italy .Pure Appl .Geophys.,157 :11 -35 .
Wang ,M.F.,Yin,H.W.,Shen,P.S.,et al .,2000 .I mprovedmethod of seismic hazard assessment and its applica-tion.Journal of Hunan University ( Natural ScienceEdition),27(5) :79 -84(in Chinese with English ab-stract) .
Zhang ,Q.W.,Zhang ,P.Z.,1999 .Application of geographiinformation system ( GIS) to seismic risk analysisCrustal Deformation and Earthquake,19(1) :82 -86(in Chinese with English abstract) .
龚平,曾心传,罗延钟,2000 .地震危险性分析中常见地震发生概率模型的合理性及局限性研究.地震研究,23(1) :57 -62 .
汪梦甫,尹华伟,沈蒲生,等,2000 .地震危险性分析方法的改进及其应用.湖南大学学报(自然科学版) ,27(5) :78 -84 .
张秋文,张培震,1999 .地理信息系统(GIS)在地震危险性分析中的应用.地壳形变与地震,19(1) :82 -86 .
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